February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[#NoPoles]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

welp.. .I had my doubts, and heh, still do  ... but, if it comes to fruition, can't say I mind.

I sort of start checking out after the perennial solar nadir ends on February 10 anyway ... Slow at first, and if the season's magnificent, yeah, I'll put it away and celebrate in hypocrisy with y'all...  But my own variation on unrealistic dreams are already visualizing the warm season.  

Too bad the clocks aren't already moved ahead ... then we might actually enjoy that after work.  

This Euro run?  It's spring man. Not sure that's even arguable beyond the expectation that no model really does that well that far out. But it terms the warm up with more SE ridging and no west based-NAO ...  That'll even start greening open fields 

I could go with an early spring. Although coastal springs are horrible

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

The GFS had a high here today of 56F.  We didn't get past 48F.

MOS or 2m? Obviously it’s way out there, but it does look like a really mild one at this point for the typically mixed sites given the timing of the fropa Wednesday. 

[78Blizzard]

13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

MOS or 2m? Obviously it’s way out there, but it does look like a really mild one at this point for the typically mixed sites given the timing of the fropa Wednesday. 

2m from OWD.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, #NoPoles said:

I could go with an early spring. Although coastal springs are horrible

Sounds like coastal winters 

[78Blizzard]

NAM beginning its cave to the GFS.

Edit- Sorry, wrong thread.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, weathafella said:

What are you trying to tell me?

Toss the warm OP.

[TalcottWx]

Ray is the ultimate weenie. Covering storms from Uganda. 

[weathafella]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Toss the warm OP.

I’m was talking EPS at a range where the op doesnt go but whatever.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

I’m was talking EPS at a range where the op doesnt go but whatever.

I understand that...I speaking to you, not at you.

My post was more inspired by John commenting on how warm the OP was.

[LurkerBoy]

What were overnight trends on next weeks scorch? 

[CoastalWx]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I understand that...I speaking to you, not at you.

My post was more inspired by John commenting on how warm the OP was.

It’s still sort of a marginal look though in the extended. 

[512high]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s still sort of a marginal look though in the extended. 

Morning Scott, When you say "marginal", after say March 1st. , average Temps? Or see/saw?

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, 512high said:

Morning Scott, When you say "marginal", after say March 1st. , average Temps? Or see/saw?

The overall look is kind of "eh". The Pacific is crap, so not much cold to work with and we are battling a SE ridge. However if enough blocking develops we hopefully will see lows forced under us.  The 11-15 day is still a furnace over most of the central and eastern US.

[Cold Miser]

I am finished with winter after this Saturday night deal.  Done. Done. and DONE.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

I am finished with winter after this Saturday night deal.  Done. Done. and DONE.

It's not over though. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just cold enough to track events after next week. Rain , snow lines. Elevation events maybe, gradient storms. Certainly a forgettable winter overall 

[SnowHole413]

AO/NAO keep being pushed back in time I noticed. Hopefully it is delayed but not denied because that SE ridge is just relentless.

[EastonSN+]

Surprisingly, the GEFS and EPS have flipped.

The EPS is now stronger with the blocking, as well as a return to a negative EPO, while the GEFS went weaker with the blocking with a strongly positive EPO.

EPS has been the most steady (not saying its correct), while the GEFS has jumped to extremes.

I defer to the mets in this forum to opine on the effects on our weather.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Cold Miser said:

I am finished with winter after this Saturday night deal.  Done. Done. and DONE.

Ok, just don't jump back on the bus once you're off after Saturday Night...deal???  

 

Enjoy the upcoming Spring.

[metagraphica]

Obviously not scientific but over the past 2 weeks I've seen some interesting signs that the animals think winter is over.  9 days ago - Great Blue Heron sighting.  7 days ago - possum poking around kitchen scraps in my garden.  6 days ago - fat ass raccoon waddling up my front walk.  Multiple dead squirrels in the road over the past week and finally today a flock of 20 geese heading north during my drive to work.  Never seen so much activity this early in the year.

[#NoPoles]

Geese activity here as well. I live near a small pond that usually supports a few nesting pairs. I heard the first geese two mornings ago.

[tamarack]

16 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Good chance '73-'74 was the year...absolutely putrid in Maine.

My 1st full winter in Maine - never saw a storm greater than 4.5" until 2nd week of April.  And the previous half-winter stunk as well.  Had a nice 7-8" storm a week after our Jan. 23 arrival and a wet mess in late Feb - 3 days of night time accum/daytime melt - and then winter was cooked, though we had plenty of miserable NNE spring wx.  No better than NNJ 1956-69, maybe not as good.

[Whineminster]

Birds have been excessively active these past few warm mornings. 

[DavisStraight]

5 hours ago, sbos_wx said:

Ray is the ultimate weenie. Covering storms from Uganda. 

The real test will come on his wedding night and a big storms brewing. We'll see if he pops in here.

[Ginx snewx]

48 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Birds have been excessively active these past few warm mornings. 

Noticed that too

[CoastalWx]

52 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

The real test will come on his wedding night and a big storms brewing. We'll see if he pops in here.

That’s only if it’s winter. In the summer, he won’t care unless an EF3 sucks him up.

[Cold Miser]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Ok, just don't jump back on the bus once you're off after Saturday Night...deal???  

 

Enjoy the upcoming Spring.

The bus will be back in the garage, and prepped for a long hiatus by noon on Sunday.

[Cold Miser]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It's not over though. 

We shall see.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Cold Miser said:

The bus will be back in the garage, and prepped for a long hiatus by noon on Sunday.

Lol ok.  I get the frustration.  You just might be giving up on this winter a lil too soon???   Time will tell.  Let's hope we get something decent tomorrow night into Sunday morning just to pad the stats if nothing else.  

[Sugarloaf1989]

After Sunday's no more snowfall in February,  the 24th looked interesting.