CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Just now, snowman19 said: I was going to ask just that but if memory serves me correct, pretty much every major I-95 December snowstorm south of sourthern New England had unmodified arctic air in place before the storm correct? Well I suppose it's how you define modified....I look at it as needing a cold airmass in place with a good high to the north. It does not need to be bitter..but sufficient. No retreating high nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Anything beats the Bermuda-esque Decembers we've had recently. I think Scooter had parrots at his bird feeder in recent Christmases. That would be 2015, when the NYC minimum on 12/24 was 22F milder than their normal max for the date. (12/25 min was only 16F milder.) Palm tree climo; I think their +32.5 on 12/24 is their greatest ever positive departure, for any date. In my area, we've been about 50-50 in recent Decembers, though 1-10 or so have been pretty poor since 2007. Last Dec was great, BN temps and 40" (less 0.1") snow, 2015 a disaster of epic proportion, 2014 with near avg snow and +3 temp, 2013 my coldest of 19 with 31", 2012 slightly AN temps with 30". Then some dogs 09-11 (though 12/09 was all the "winter" we got that season.) Latitude can be nice early and late, though the past two Aprils have run contrary to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Of course snowman19 likes the mention of rain at the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 By the way I hear the Euro Weeklies were great lock in the cold all throughout the 6 weeks in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If course snowman19 likes the mention of rain at the coast its coming dude, put your nickles and dimes back in ur pocket, take out the Benjamins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 3 hours ago, J Paul Gordon said: Looks like us and Western Europe while Siberia cooks (relative to normal, probably gets up to 0F someplace there during this heat wave). Fascinating. Hope it holds on for a solid six weeks with frequent snow.... kinda like Feb 2015 Reprise. A week ago it was -65 F in Siberia, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 I had poor reception all day-at a meeting-went to my car to charge up at 2 and correctly predicted who would say what other than Brett who posted positive vibes...lol. As Kevin said a few days ago-that look is snow and lots of it! On one of the waiting room TVs I caught some Boston OCM saying pattern supports cold and snow after the next 7 days. And finally-it’s coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: its coming dude, put your nickles and dimes back in ur pocket, take out the Benjamins I'm excited...but kind of evolved to the point of "wake me when we have a viable threat inside of day 5"... I think we wait until at least the holidays for a big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Not bad for the 8-10 day mean on the ECM/GFS/GGEM. Gotta love the location of that trough axis. Swing 'em right up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2017 Author Share Posted November 30, 2017 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: It looks at velocity potential at 200mb from the EC since that is usually the better metric to gauge the MJO. As far as what else it looks at..I can't exactly describe it. yeah .. fair enough. the marine subcontinent is going crazy ...it's far and away more conducive to the part of the wave/phase spaces the align the AB Pacific...which, low and behold, the WPO is decided to flip phases to negative out there in about a week - it's been building hints and frets and starts at doing so for the last several days and finally committed more fully to doing so as of last night. CPC hasn't updated their web source in days (dheads..) ...We could be looking at the biggest interdimensional cross rip since the Tunguska blast of 1909! ... oh, wait - wrong movie. Seriously though, that's getting top tier if that MJO and gang decide to crash the party... jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 25 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: A week ago it was -65 F in Siberia, lol. Correction, -69 F. Not that it matters when it’s 70 below Zero lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 35 minutes ago, leo2000 said: By the way I hear the Euro Weeklies were great lock in the cold all throughout the 6 weeks in the run. Euro weeklies have the cold lasting in the east through January 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro weeklies have the cold lasting in the east through January 15. great, he will worry about Jan 16 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: great, he will worry about Jan 16 now. Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Not bad for the 8-10 day mean on the ECM/GFS/GGEM. Gotta love the location of that trough axis. Swing 'em right up the coast. There’s no denying it’s coming. Even TanFlizz is optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: There’s no denying it’s coming. Even TanFlizz is optimistic. Nobody can seriously say they don’t like the look. Whether it produces, different story. Still like around the 10th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 With so much northern stream action, it would be nice to get a good widespread clipper system. It seems like its been a while since we've had a legit widespread 3-6" (~0.25" QPF) advisory clipper dropping snow across upstate NY and New England. Would be a good way to get the vibe going in December with a nice cold clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If course snowman19 likes the mention of rain at the coast Just wait until this pattern breaks down , he’ll be posting 24/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 I hate to be a downer and not to bring politics into it but this thread is starting to feel like some of the AP threads leading up to last November. And yes, all of the reasonable folks have waved the caveat flag high (great patterns don’t always produce great results in your backyard)but there is stil an aura of Greenspanian irrational exuberance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Man are things looking snowy late next week. It’s possible it snows 2-3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 hour ago, mreaves said: I hate to be a downer and not to bring politics into it but this thread is starting to feel like some of the AP threads leading up to last November. And yes, all of the reasonable folks have waved the caveat flag high (great patterns don’t always produce great results in your backyard)but there is stil an aura of Greenspanian irrational exuberance. Don't look at this as a dig but dude this pattern is money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 hour ago, mreaves said: I hate to be a downer and not to bring politics into it but this thread is starting to feel like some of the AP threads leading up to last November. And yes, all of the reasonable folks have waved the caveat flag high (great patterns don’t always produce great results in your backyard)but there is stil an aura of Greenspanian irrational exuberance. December 1985 had a great pattern that didn't really produce. So I def get the mindset of "talk is cheap, show me the money". There's been other excellent patterns that didn't produce much. But the odds are def increased in this pattern, no doubt about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: great, he will worry about Jan 16 now. I have good reason to worry it's called "reasonable worry" though. Let's face it we have been burned many times before and it has left us very disappointed. I don't want to give my hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: December 1985 had a great pattern that didn't really produce. So I def get the mindset of "talk is cheap, show me the money". There's been other excellent patterns that didn't produce much. But the odds are def increased in this pattern, no doubt about it. 85 I distinctly remember only had like a week of a decent pattern but we were at the base of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 85 I distinctly remember only had like a week of a decent pattern but we were at the base of the trough. Prince Edward Island ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 40 minutes ago, leo2000 said: I have good reason to worry it's called "reasonable worry" though. Let's face it we have been burned many times before and it has left us very disappointed. I don't want to give my hopes up. lol, it’s called “obsessive paranoia”. You know how many times I’ve been burned on 2ft storms inside 24hr, eventual busts? That still doesn’t deter me from being excited over a upper air look that oozes potential. Past failures suck, but they don’t dictate what happens now. If you had a bad relationship or a bad breakup, and you obsess and can’t get over it, then you’re missing out when someone great comes along. Let go, move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 When will the first meltdown be? Outside of picnic tables who will see most snow out of December? Id say taunting blizzard during a snow storm where se mass rains And ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Don't look at this as a dig but dude this pattern is money. 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: December 1985 had a great pattern that didn't really produce. So I def get the mindset of "talk is cheap, show me the money". There's been other excellent patterns that didn't produce much. But the odds are def increased in this pattern, no doubt about it. Oh, I get it and I would much rather be staring at pattern that offers great potential than one that features a perma pig in AK or an immovable SE ridge. I’ve also bought three new snowmobiles in the last 11 months and desparately want to feel like I didn’t completely piss my money away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: 85 I distinctly remember only had like a week of a decent pattern but we were at the base of the trough. it was a pretty good pattern. You'd think a month like this would have produced. It's actually seems to be the number one analog on the CPC on the 6-10 and 8-14 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said: it was a pretty good pattern. You'd think a month like this would have produced. It's actually seems to be the number one analog on the CPC on the 6-10 and 8-14 days. You know CPC analogs are all Pacific based.I have more and more used EPS and CIPS which encompass the whole NH. 85 was great for a week Product Interpretation: The link on the top of the page to the top 10 analog dates in text format lists the top analogs found between 1950 and 2010 which correspond to todays official 500-HPA outlook. The analog dates selected are those with the highest correlation with the official 500-HPA outlook over the PNA region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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