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Late autumn, early winter model mayhem


Typhoon Tip

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

What happened in here this morning?

 

I wasn't expecting semi-melts this early...I was thinking it would be more like 3-4 days from now when the D9 system disappears from model guidance

I dunno...I tried to talk some off the ledge, but managed to grab one more.  :lol:   

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I dunno...I tried to talk some off the ledge, but managed to grab one more.  :lol:   

We have people arguing whether a tweet about the final mild day in the pattern next week will have a greater departure than the cold next weekend....as if that matters at all to the pattern going forward....and then some mild freak outs when you dropped the unbelievable bombshell that the coastline wasn't guaranteed all snow in mid-December.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We have people arguing whether a tweet about the final mild day in the pattern next week will have a greater departure than the cold next weekend....as if that matters at all to the pattern going forward....and then some mild freak outs when you dropped the unbelievable bombshell that the coastline wasn't guaranteed all snow in mid-December.

Some need to step away and stop living and dyeing with tweets from social media and every model run.

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18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Jesus I was happy about my post..lol. Please tell me where I said slop and rain followed by cold.

Defense mechanisms.

The posts in this thread today are painful for the most part.  You can feel the anxiety.

The problem is this is what the next 7 days will read like because there isn't much to hash out anymore, except worry about it not working out.  

 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We have people arguing whether a tweet about the final mild day in the pattern next week will have a greater departure than the cold next weekend....as if that matters at all to the pattern going forward....and then some mild freak outs when you dropped the unbelievable bombshell that the coastline wasn't guaranteed all snow in mid-December.

And I am pumped for the look...don't get me wrong. Jesus, it's been years. I'm so sick of being angry in December with every 12z run coming in. Finally hope and change we can believe in.

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We have people arguing whether a tweet about the final mild day in the pattern next week will have a greater departure than the cold next weekend....as if that matters at all to the pattern going forward....and then some mild freak outs when you dropped the unbelievable bombshell that the coastline wasn't guaranteed all snow in mid-December.

I tried heading it off at the pass a few pages ago but just couldn't type fast enough :)

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34 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I love the look of this pattern for lake effect and adjacent orographic snows in New England mountains...big cold to our west, oscillating flow but seems to be some good periods of cold west/southwest flow which can be really nice in parts of NNE for getting lake moisture into the mountains.

Throw in northern stream energy and vorts to enhance the meso-scale processes... a very good pattern look overall with the trough to the west a bit.  Doesn't allow us to go to dry NW flow for long periods of time...actually sets up the more rare cold SW flow for lake effect.

yes, im starting to get excited on some WSW events off the lakes if we can get the PV to sit just to the west of them, could bring the goods from Whiteface to Stowe.

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13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Excellent post Scott, I knew exactly what you were saying, ever since we were not progged to get an overwhelming Artic blast I got pumped. Anyone not liking this needs to reevaluate how they think our climo works.

Bingo.  Don't need the over-whelming Arctic blast...want the core a bit west of us.

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11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I should get on a video link and explain how I was nearly in tears at Yankee stadium watching the giants play the expansion cowboys in near 70 degrees on 12/4/60.  One week later a major blizzard of the 20th century opened the winter of my life...still tops.

Happy birthday Old man Winter

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33 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I should get on a video link and explain how I was nearly in tears at Yankee stadium watching the giants play the expansion cowboys in near 70 degrees on 12/4/60.  One week later a major blizzard of the 20th century opened the winter of my life...still tops.

You would take 60/61 over Feb 2015?   That's impressive.  

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