OceanStWx Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 8 hours ago, CoastalWx said: So we know the cold will go into Midwest/Plains first. We know it will infiltrate eastward with succession... ... I feel the twitter mets are using ensembles verbatim...and are not being honest with it. You have to know how to interpret it. Thanks Typhoon Tip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There will be chances for all types of systems the next 2 weeks. The only thing that looks unlikely is a slow mover due to fast flow. We have northern stream dominance and a very tight gradient with no megablocks to try and offset so most systems will move right along. The trough digs deep enough at times that we could def see a gulf system but we will have plenty of chances for clippers and redevelopers and Miller Bs with the northern stream being dominant. That -nao has become a vodoo fakeout. Twice (late Novie and early-mid Dec) it has shown up on practically every piece of guidance, for more than just one hiccup run, yet it eventually fades away. The numbers may eventually be slightly neg but it sure won’t feel like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There will be chances for all types of systems the next 2 weeks. The only thing that looks unlikely is a slow mover due to fast flow. We have northern stream dominance and a very tight gradient with no megablocks to try and offset so most systems will move right along. The trough digs deep enough at times that we could def see a gulf system but we will have plenty of chances for clippers and redevelopers and Miller Bs with the northern stream being dominant. Congrats Dendrite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 16 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Congrats Dendrite Congrats beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: Congrats beer. Lotta posters on edge despite good signals. Terrible way to live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 I’m thinking nickels and dimes for a bit before anything really rocks and rolls. Some were mentioning this yesterday or Wednesday. I will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 47 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Lotta posters on edge despite good signals. Terrible way to live. It’s a great study about folks’ inner fears..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: It’s a great study about folks’ inner fears..lol. This whole board is just like the Truman Show. It's really a big psych experiment. With the initial dump of cold to the west, folks will get on edge when they don't see a huge change immediately. But the atmospheric deck looks like it's going to shuffle nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: This whole board is just like the Truman Show. It's really a big psych experiment. With the initial dump of cold to the west, folks will get on edge when they don't see a huge change immediately. But the atmospheric deck looks like it's going to shuffle nicely. It’s the best looking December pattern in a very long time and folks are pissed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Gfs loves the 15th for a big storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Gfs loves the 15th for a big storm The Last Jedi... The First Blockbuster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 No blocking, fast flow Cold dry and mild up and wet would cause meltdowns 0z GFS shows lots of chances Lol this is gonna be fun period I have to remind myself a few times a day that SNE snow climo is not close to satisfying personally, and i consciously refuse to play head games to "accept climo". Its what it is and i still enjoy most our storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 GGEM is Euroesque tonight, we take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: No blocking, fast flow Cold dry and mild up and wet would cause meltdowns What ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: No blocking, fast flow Cold dry and mild up and wet would cause meltdowns No blocking ? Transient ridges are blocks to zonal flow. I mean c'mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 4wave pattern sit back and relax, don't rush it. Ignore the baiters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 4wave pattern sit back and relax, don't rush it. Ignore the baiters. With some clunky Decembers in recent years, Jerry is right, good look for a change. Let's enjoy it. This is not a pattern where we need to "get lucky," it's a pattern we really just need to let it play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Yea, I'm not on edge or pissed...just exhausted by the whole day 10 H5 talk. Waiting for the trackable, discrete threats to materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I'm not pissed...just exhausted by the whole day 10 H5 talk. Waiting for the trackable, discrete threats to materialize. I saw the CMC anafrontal and thought maybe the fraud is pissed. Pattern is good-at this point que sera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: I saw the CMC anafrontal and thought maybe the fraud is pissed. Pattern is good-at this point que sera. I'm not even looking at that crap. If it looks good at hour 12, count me in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 3 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Thanks Typhoon Tip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Euro is meh on the anafrontal, but had another s/w coming down the flow with a wave that tries to develop last minute. Goes to show you that it's sort of a loaded gun with s/w's sliding down the geopotential medium like Tom Brady with his hands in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not even looking at that crap. If it looks good at hour 12, count me in. I wasn't trying to say a DC special earlier, but with such a deep trough...you could have a beast coming up from Dixie Land as Schwoegler would say. Otherwise it's fast flow stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I wasn't trying to say a DC special earlier, but with such a deep trough...you could have a beast coming up from Dixie Land as Schwoegler would say. Otherwise it's fast flow stuff. Yea, its very possible...especially with Miller As. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 3 hours ago, OceanStWx said: With some clunky Decembers in recent years, Jerry is right, good look for a change. Let's enjoy it. This is not a pattern where we need to "get lucky," it's a pattern we really just need to let it play out. This. Amen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 6z gfs shows you how unlucky this can be then collapses the pattern. Leo is very very worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 26 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 6z gfs shows you how unlucky this can be then collapses the pattern. Leo is very very worried. Luckily the ensembles laugh. Steady as she goes. It's coming...whether we get lucky or unlucky...who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Luckily the ensembles laugh. Steady as she goes. It's coming...whether we get lucky or unlucky...who knows. I wouldn’t trust an op run that far anyway and it’s like one run out of 250 showing a breakdown. Easy toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 EPS continues anafrontal support. Also strengthened the cold even further Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 EPS was pretty weenieish last night in LR It is def a northern stream dominant fast flow environment though. So clippers and redevelopers would be the favorites...but during times when the trough bends back to the southwest a bit we could see more of a SWFE type setup coming out of the Arklatex region and such...and at least early on, the trough is so deep that you can't rule out a gulf system. But in the long run I favor the types of systems that typically go with northern stream dominance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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