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Late autumn, early winter model mayhem


Typhoon Tip

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I like this pattern too to produce a KU, maybe more down the road towards Christmas.  This is an Alberta Clipper to redeveloping bomb type of pattern, a ton of arctic jet energy pouring into the mid USA and this energy should amplify in the eastern USA trough.  I think we could see a major miller B snowstorm in the next 15 days

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2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I like this pattern too to produce a KU, maybe more down the road towards Christmas.  This is an Alberta Clipper to redeveloping bomb type of pattern, a ton of arctic jet energy pouring into the mid USA and this energy should amplify in the eastern USA trough.  I think we could see a major miller B snowstorm in the next 15 days

Hmmm...it’s james vs scooter-all we need is his proclamation and we’re off to the races!

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Here is the 18z NAM at 84 hours, and the 12z GFS at 90 hours, same time frame.  500mb imagery, suggests we have two disturbances in the man flow, one from the Pacific jet and the other from the arctic jet.  Depending upon their interaction will determine what happens with the weekend storm.  AS we can see the differences, the 18z NAM has more energy associated with the Pacific jet stream while the GFS is flatter with the PAC jet stream.  These differences will be handled properly around the WED night and THU morn time frame.

18z NAM 500mb image, december 3rd run.gif

12z GFS 500mb image december 3rd run.gif

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No thanks on KUs. Sometimes we score, but sometimes it’s a mid atlantic exclusive. I’d rather risk losing my snow to NNE and QB where it can lay down some pack rather than BWI. I understand why mid atl weenies are obsessed with KUs, but I don’t understand the appeal up here. Paul and Louis don’t care about NNE/CNE. ;)

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50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm talking about the next two weeks. I wouldn't venture out to Christmas yet as to whether or not the look changes to a KU one. My guess is probably not.

I've been wondering if we see any southern stream cutting under that stout western ridge.... I'm sure La Nina climo would argue against it, but I can't imagine if we could just get some southern stream action entering the base of the trough.  Imagine that upper level pattern with an active southern jet.

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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

More than half of EPS members drop accumulating snow mid- late week

#itscoming

I still think its a bit too early to write off that anafrontal stuff to come back a bit, but right now it looks pretty dead.  I see some EPS members have something and mean has a widespread 1" over all of New England...but that's more because of a few jacked up members, IMO from looking at it.

Since we are talking snow maps, funny how the past two days the day 15 EPS snow maps have looked exactly like a climo snow map.  I wonder if that's built into them at all or if that's just how it smooths out? 

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5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You can't argue the look, Just a matter of it producing, I feel really good about the upcoming pattern.

Yeah can't ask for much more than a deep trough where its progged.  We'll see what happens.  Better than if we were looking at the 7-14 day and seeing a +2SD ridge over the east and everyone panicking because you know anything fun is still weeks away (pretty much what skiers out west are doing right now).

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