HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said: DAY 10 euro is very nice snowstorm as well! Lots of potential! I have shoveled far too much D10 snow in my dreams! Seriously though, that is actually the storm I'm more interested in rather than the Friday deal. I'll check in again Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Well I could care less about verbatim solutions, but that is also not a KU look. That's moving quick still. Dumb question. What's the KU look? Not a term familiar to me or used often in the SE forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Just now, WxBlue said: Dumb question. What's the KU look? Not a term familiar to me or used often in the SE forum. Kocin-Uccelini....The authors of a book called northeast snowstorms. A book written about major-blockbuster storms. My argument is that the look is still a little too quick to be a KU type deal.At least IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 That’s the same storm it’s been showing. Always been Fri nite into Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Kocin-Uccelini....The authors of a book called northeast snowstorms. A book written about major-blockbuster storms. My argument is that the look is still a little too quick to be a KU type deal.At least IMHO. Ah yes. I know about their research on historic NE storms and saw Kocin give out a talk on that topic at an AMS conference. I'm guessing KU storm is a term to use when dealing with blockbusters (guessing greater than 12-18" would meet the definition around here). Anyway, to cut down on the banter, I still really like where we're sitting after lunchtime model runs. Patience is the key now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxBlue said: Ah yes. I know about their research on historic NE storms and saw Kocin give out a talk on that topic at an AMS conference. I'm guessing KU storm is a term to use when dealing with blockbusters (guessing greater than 12-18" would meet the definition around here). Anyway, to cut down on the banter, I still really like where we're sitting after lunchtime model runs. Patience is the key now. We usually gets these KU event when we have some blocking to help slow things down so we get these 12-18 hr systems to produce as they track up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s the same storm it’s been showing. Always been Fri nite into Sat I think you’ve baled on frontsie-backsie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 19 minutes ago, WxBlue said: Thanks! It's bizarre seeing people writing 4-8" off as NBD. Like that's Raleigh's annual snowfall average haha. To say that we've been spoiled in the last few decades is an understatement. Plenty on here that consider 8-12" storms meh nowadays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 8 minutes ago, WxBlue said: Ah yes. I know about their research on historic NE storms and saw Kocin give out a talk on that topic at an AMS conference. I'm guessing KU storm is a term to use when dealing with blockbusters (guessing greater than 12-18" would meet the definition around here). Anyway, to cut down on the banter, I still really like where we're sitting after lunchtime model runs. Patience is the key now. Yep, pretty much. It's a good look going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 The EPS mean looks rather nice Friday night into Saturday. I'd be curious to see if the members look good or if it's skewed by a few weenie members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: I didn't see anyone claim a big one cannot happen in the next 10 days. It def can. I just wouldn't favor it. I'd favor faster moving events. When I personally say "Big", I mean widespread over a foot. 6-10" might considered big by some...it's def a solid warning event. So I think sometimes people should specify what their subjective opinion of big is. Not being favored and saying it absolutely cannot happen are two different things. I don't think anyone claimed the latter....maybe Kevin in one of his many musngs about the pattern, but that's just Kevin being Kevin...."nickels and dimes 2015 winter". Absolutely. The ceiling is about 6-12"....agreed on all accounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 No complaints about a moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well I could care less about verbatim solutions, but that is also not a KU look. That's moving quick still. For my WNE friends who post incessantly about lack of QPF falling as snow on day 10 maps and for Scott, Scooter, Scoots and all the other #S's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: For my WNE friends who post incessantly about lack of QPF falling as snow on day 10 maps and for Scott, Scooter, Scoots and all the other #S's Right, when I mean could care less...I meant whether it gives me half an inch or half a meter of snow. I just like seeing a good one modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well I could care less about verbatim solutions, but that is also not a KU look. That's moving quick still. Apparently you can't acknowledge that we aren't a favorable pattern for 1'+ events without ruling one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: I think you’ve baled on frontsie-backsie? Well we still turn to snow, but there’s not as much precip now in cold sector as there was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Well we still turn to snow, but there’s not as much precip now in cold sector as there was Suprising trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Hard to tell at day ten but it's still dumping on sim maps and a 983 with this 850 inflow into Arctic air Yowzer, don't know how you define a KU, whether by population affected, amount of snow, speed of system but that's a modeled big dog, no if and or buts about it. Fantasy snow but shows the potential many think is on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The EPS mean looks rather nice Friday night into Saturday. I'd be curious to see if the members look good or if it's skewed by a few weenie members. Member are all over but a lot are near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Member are all over but a lot are near the coast. Cool, thanks. I'd be happy with just a coating lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 44 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Pretty warm East but exactly what I meant about people writing off KUs or any solution. With extreme patterns can come extreme solutions Nobody wrote anything off. Are you ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Absolutely. The ceiling is about 6-12"....agreed on all accounts. I really don't understand how you arrive at this conclusion but respect it. I have to disagree.I base my opinion on the amount of energy dropping into a strong meridional flow, Arctic air, potential for capture , transitional blocking, past historical analogs, past personal observations of similar looks. Today's 12 Z Euro reflects my thoughts. Potential is available, can't say it occurs, but no definite on significant limits of accumulation in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Nobody wrote anything off. Are you ok? Um ceilings imply such but ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Um ceilings imply such but ok UmI'm speaking of the ceiling of what I feel is likely but ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 As has been noted, The fast flow will have a ceiling on anything significant, But that doesn't mean we can see a few good moderate events upcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 37 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: For my WNE friends who post incessantly about lack of QPF falling as snow on day 10 maps and for Scott, Scooter, Scoots and all the other #S's If wishes were horses..... 35.9/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: UmI'm speaking of the ceiling of what I feel is likely but ok Ok your multiple posts about not a big dog pattern, people are wrong to think anything else or moderate is the ceiling is what you feel. I just asked why you felt that way other than it's a progressive pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: As has been noted, The fast flow will have a ceiling on anything significant, But that doesn't mean we can see a few good moderate events upcoming. Guess a Euro solution is absolutely impossible.? The memories of similar patterns leads me to believe it is possible. I don't know what you consider moderate though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Anyone speaking in definitives at this juncture is a . Never say never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Guess a Euro solution is absolutely impossible.? The memories of similar patterns leads me to believe it is possible. I don't know what you consider moderate though. Its not impossible, I just don't think its highly likely out of the gate, I consider 6-10" as moderate, 12"+ i would consider significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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