ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: dates of other manitoba maulers: 1/27/11, 2/7-8/13 and 1/22/05 1/22/05...yes....the other two were not, however. 2013 had some legit southern stream interaction and 2011 was kind of a bowling ball going across the south-central US. Feb '78 though was actually a mauler. Anyways, a mauler is def one oft he types of storms we could get out of this pattern...you want an amplified PNA ridge for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2017 Author Share Posted November 30, 2017 looks like there's so much volatility in that pattern with all that extreme gradient that just about any gnat's wing beat in the flow is careening 1-10" events over head. And I don't believe any of it... It's too volatile - hypersensitive to perturbation in the flow with (probably) odd feed-back propagators and false interactions therein... ...Ironically, I'd almost be more interested in the one diving down the high Plains D10 before anything that's ripping through that antecedent, planetary maelstrom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Scoots boss agrees . This baby is fooking locked in I will say, those analogs pointed to this upcoming pattern....well at least hinted at it. I didn't quite believe them since they failed before...but they got this right. That's all Mike Vs stuff. Sometimes it works, sometimes it does not. And LOL...you think I have about 5 bosses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 9 minutes ago, WxBlue said: That was a solid run for coastal areas on Euro. Especially Downeast Maine. Soon you will get to experience the WNE weenies inevitable chants of "Who stole my QPF?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Damn that's a beautiful look at 5h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Even if there are not big numbers it would be quite fun to have a pre-holiday run of, let's say, several(3) 2-4" events over a 10 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2017 Author Share Posted November 30, 2017 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Scoots boss agrees . This baby is fooking locked in I'd like to know what MJO prog he's basing that on.... The MJO is in fact progged in the GEFs to be antithetic ...but, I could be wrong - certainly not something one want's be bludgeoned for... Is he talking about a longer lead ... ? perhaps they have a week 2.5- 4 MJO ?? EDIT: Actually .... looks like the MJO source is two day old - perhaps there's been sweeping changes ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I will say, those analogs pointed to this upcoming pattern....well at least hinted at it. I didn't quite believe them since they failed before...but they got this right. That's all Mike Vs stuff. Sometimes it works, sometimes it does not. And LOL...you think I have about 5 bosses. Looks like us and Western Europe while Siberia cooks (relative to normal, probably gets up to 0F someplace there during this heat wave). Fascinating. Hope it holds on for a solid six weeks with frequent snow.... kinda like Feb 2015 Reprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Even if there are not big numbers it would be quite fun to have a pre-holiday run of, let's say, several(3) 2-4" events over a 10 day period. Anything beats the Bermuda-esque Decembers we've had recently. I think Scooter had parrots at his bird feeder in recent Christmases. I think we'll get some small events mixed in with this type of pattern. When you have it this amplified, you're going to get a lot of smaller vortmaxes in the flow coming out of Canada from the arctic jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2017 Author Share Posted November 30, 2017 20 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Damn that's a beautiful look at 5h. eastern NF might be in the 60s when it's in the 20s in Boston on that image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro has an anafront snow event next Wed night/Thursday....kind of skeptical of that evolution but can't rule anything out this far out. It's been hinting at that for a bit now, though that's more robust today. It's had a fun runs of it over us up here, over SYR/ART, and now a bit further southeast. Makes sense with the low level gradient that a wave rippling along might stall the forward motion enough that some precip can ride into the cold sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 EPS trying for another go at the -NAO at the end of their run. While the previous NAO look shown will not verify, it's important to note that the NAO region actually isn't that bad looking coming up in the D8-12 range...it's probably still mildly negative or at least neutral. It's not raging positive. So we'll have some assist there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 56 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'd like to know what MJO prog he's basing that on.... The MJO is in fact progged in the GEFs to be antithetic ...but, I could be wrong - certainly not something one want's be bludgeoned for... Is he talking about a longer lead ... ? perhaps they have a week 2.5- 4 MJO ?? EDIT: Actually .... looks like the MJO source is two day old - perhaps there's been sweeping changes ? It looks at velocity potential at 200mb from the EC since that is usually the better metric to gauge the MJO. As far as what else it looks at..I can't exactly describe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Wow this is the first true excitement in a long time for winter weather in these parts, legit cold arctic air and a legit arctic jet enhancing vort maxes for potential miller B snowstorms, let the fun begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS trying for another go at the -NAO at the end of their run. While the previous NAO look shown will not verify, it's important to note that the NAO region actually isn't that bad looking coming up in the D8-12 range...it's probably still mildly negative or at least neutral. It's not raging positive. So we'll have some assist there. Pseudo blocks will work too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Wasn't January 26-28th 2015 storm a mauler too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 With the trough setting up over the eastern third there is going to be a lot of lobes of vorticty in the flow out of Canada so we should be able get some reinforcing shots as well as chances at storms if we can tap into the gulf moisture at least over the next several weeks before the pattern eventually breaks down, Its a far cry from the last couple December's here in the northeast with it looking to front loaded for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Scoots boss agrees . This baby is fooking locked in 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I will say, those analogs pointed to this upcoming pattern....well at least hinted at it. I didn't quite believe them since they failed before...but they got this right. That's all Mike Vs stuff. Sometimes it works, sometimes it does not. And LOL...you think I have about 5 bosses. LOL, I was thinking the exact same thing. Are you the janitor there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Massive pattern change by Wednesday night/Thursday morning cold air arrives big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Scoots boss agrees . This baby is fooking locked in Early Jan sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 The old saying in meteorology for Cape Cod residents, is that early December chances for snow decrease substantially because of the ocean being too warm, well it has cooled considerably since August now down to 48F from the top temperature reading of around 75F. This should not be an outspoken factor when regarding snow forecasts in the future given how cold the arctic air will be in the first week of December through the end of the month. However, once an arctic jet disturbance reaches these waters south of the Massachusetts Islands, there could be some explosive cyclogenesis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 11 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Massive pattern change by Wednesday night/Thursday morning cold air arrives big time Thanks dude. Will there be ‘monsters’ coming out of closets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Thanks dude. Will there be ‘monsters’ coming out of closets? I know you are being sarcastic, so I won't respond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The old saying in meteorology for Cape Cod residents, is that early December chances for snow decrease substantially because of the ocean being too warm, well it has cooled considerably since August now down to 48F from the top temperature reading of around 75F. This should not be an outspoken factor when regarding snow forecasts in the future given how cold the arctic air will be in the first week of December through the end of the month. However, once an arctic jet disturbance reaches these waters south of the Massachusetts Islands, there could be some explosive cyclogenesis We think there’s a good chance you jack with rains to start off. The ridge is more west than you’d like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We think there’s a good chance you jack with rains to start off. The ridge is more west than you’d like it. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I know you are being sarcastic, so I won't respond No way. I enjoy your apocalyptic posts. Gets me fired up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 They aren't meant to scare anyone, just let them know I am serious when I say there will be a big change in the weather and it won't be just on the computer screen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 December is always tough on the coast unless it's a very cold antecedent airmass. I would not get too giddy about snow unless I knew it would be very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: We shall see It’s going to be a great winter. Not trying to take your snow away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: December is always tough on the coast unless it's a very cold antecedent airmass. I would not get too giddy about snow unless I knew it would be very cold. I was going to ask just that but if memory serves me correct, pretty much every major I-95 December snowstorm south of sourthern New England had unmodified arctic air in place before the storm correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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