Late autumn, early winter model mayhem

[wxsniss]

22 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=box

Go to monthly summarized data, and you can figure out which drop downs to pick from there.

 

Exactly what I was looking for, they've improved the interface from the old link I had, thank you!

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Hmm.  I get the climo part...but not sure I agree with the first part.   I admit I could be wrong.   Any way to verify your statement?

Depends on what you're looking at. Ensembles because they smooth out extremes in the mean, will tend to have smaller anomalies until the short term when they get into better agreement on just how large the anomaly will be.

But if you are looking at the deterministic runs, the anomalies could be huge in the extended, because it's just one sample and no smoothing to a mean.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Depends on what you're looking at. Ensembles because they smooth out extremes in the mean, will tend to have smaller anomalies until the short term when they get into better agreement on just how large the anomaly will be.

But if you are looking at the deterministic runs, the anomalies could be huge in the extended, because it's just one sample and no smoothing to a mean.

Yeah big cold showing up on the ensembles 7+ days out will often get stronger...like I think we max out (or min out to be more precise) at -10C or -12C at 850mb on the ensemble mean...but the best cold shots are almost certainly going to be stronger than that. With that EPO, good chance we get -20C or better for a peak cold shot.

[WinterWolf]

I just didn’t get the whole climo part being cooked in cuz climo is there at 7 days out, and at one day out??  Will your explanation makes the most sense, and I did remember that fact.  Thanks.

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I just didn’t get the whole climo part being cooked in cuz climo is there at 7 days out, and at one day out??  Will your explanation makes the most sense, and I did remember that fact.  Thanks.

The climo that is baked in relates to the anomalies themselves. They are typically standardized anomalies, so relative to the time of year (dividing by the climatological standard deviation). It doesn't work like MOS, where climo has a bigger pull at day 7, but less influence at day 1. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

26 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Depends on what you're looking at. Ensembles because they smooth out extremes in the mean, will tend to have smaller anomalies until the short term when they get into better agreement on just how large the anomaly will be.

But if you are looking at the deterministic runs, the anomalies could be huge in the extended, because it's just one sample and no smoothing to a mean.

 

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah big cold showing up on the ensembles 7+ days out will often get stronger...like I think we max out (or min out to be more precise) at -10C or -12C at 850mb on the ensemble mean...but the best cold shots are almost certainly going to be stronger than that. With that EPO, good chance we get -20C or better for a peak cold shot.

Thanks      Pickles schooled me

[CoastalWx]

If you have good large scale agreement, sometimes the op runs tell the story. You can use the op run as a potential gauge to how the cold or warm it could really look, since it's not a smoothed out mean. I would not advise to do this often, but it's just more for interests.

[CoastalWx]

And just so there is no confusion, model temps are just that. It's the model computing temps. There is no climo there. With MOS, it's a statistical product that weighs in climo, depending on certain situations. 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And just so there is no confusion, model temps are just that. It's the model computing temps. There is no climo there. With MOS, it's a statistical product that weighs in climo, depending on certain situations. 

So pickles was talking about MOS, when he said “baked in”, no?  I interpreted his post like the closer in you get to the time period, the less climo has an effect..which to me makes no sense??  If they are standardized anomalies, then at verification it’s still the same standardized anomalies..no??  

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So pickles was talking about MOS, when he said “baked in”, no?  I interpreted his post like the closer in you get to the time period, the less climo has an effect..which to me makes no sense??  If they are standardized anomalies, then at verification it’s still the same standardized anomalies..no??  

Right. What'll change with standardized anomalies are that generally ensembles come to some agreement, and so the mean may get colder or warmer than at day 7. So the anomaly signal appears stronger.

[forkyfork]

at some point a pv lobe will swing through 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, forkyfork said:

at some point a pv lobe will swing through 

Hopefully phasing with a SW.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Right. What'll change with standardized anomalies are that generally ensembles come to some agreement, and so the mean may get colder or warmer than at day 7. So the anomaly signal appears stronger.

Ok got it...that’s what I was thinking all along. It’s more the modeling/ensembles Honing in/coming into better agreement in the means, and that will change for the colder/warmer  perhaps (in this case) making anomaly appear bigger/smaller.

 

It was the whole climo baked in idea that I couldn’t get my head around and was confusing me lol.  

Thank you for taking the time to explain OceanSt. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

I think that may be the case-and hopefully that increases our snow chances.

We Leon

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Ok got it...that’s what I was thinking all along. It’s more the modeling/ensembles Honing in/coming into better agreement in the means, and that will change for the colder/warmer  perhaps (in this case) making anomaly appear bigger/smaller.

 

It was the whole climo baked in idea that I couldn’t get my head around and was confusing me lol.  

Thank you for taking the time to explain OceanSt. 

I could see how the wording could confuse, but now you know!

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I could see how the wording could confuse, but now you know!

Yes, thanks for Seeing that.  I appreciate the detailed explanations :-).

[dryslot]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully phasing with a SW.

That goes boom just inside the BM

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dryslot said:

That goes boom just inside the BM

You mean awakens?

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

You mean awakens?

At dawn?

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

You mean awakens?

La la la lock it up

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I could see how the wording could confuse, but now you know!

I see what you did there. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

At dawn?

With wet sheets?

[J Paul Gordon]

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Can't wait to see The reaction when we get a cutter.

We'll all act like we expected it all along. It's the DIT syndrome. All of us are infected by it one way or another. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

It’s almost impossible not to have a system go to our west in a 4 month span. Will has the stats pinned somewhere, it has to be very very rare. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

at some point a pv lobe will swing through 

Yeah this is a good example for those want to learn what we're saying.....and we'll get a huge cold shot when a PV lobe does swing through. The ensemble mean just smooths out the timing of various pv lobes so we never see -20C 850s past about 6-7 days at our latitude. 

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

That goes boom while crossing the CC Canal

FYP

[Ginx snewx]

Where's JC?

[WintersComing]

Euro is starting to sniff it out!



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[powderfreak]

Only have 384 more hours to go... but lol at this pattern. 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Where's JC?

Church?