Late autumn, early winter model mayhem

[dryslot]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We know it’s coming. 

The goods are always delayed 

Dec 25th?

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea but he is up there with TauntonFlizzard in the meh department. 

No.   Brett mehs everything regardless of veracity.  Forky mehs stuff that may be meh worthy.

[CoastalWx]

LOL! He strikes again!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We know it’s coming. 

The goods are always delayed 

Obviously. 

[OceanStWx]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well it wouldn’t be me or fun if it wasn’t. Let’s just hope this all comes to fruition. The 7th would be a nice start 

December 7th, a date which will live in infamy, Tolland, Connecticut was suddenly and deliberately attacked by mixed precipitation sources of the overrunning pattern. 

[OceanStWx]

1 hour ago, Powderboy413 said:

Tip works in reverse I noticed over the past few years. If the pattern looks great then he finds ways it won’t work out. But in less favorable patterns he talks in a way that makes you think there’s still hope lol

I mean, for the record, that's kind of an important part of meteorology, figuring out how a pattern or event can fail. Both fail in a benign way, and fail in an impactful way.

[dryslot]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

I mean, for the record, that's kind of an important part of meteorology, figuring out how a pattern or event can fail. Both fail in a benign way, and fail in an impactful way.

I use the glass half full method when looking at threats.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean, for the record, that's kind of an important part of meteorology, figuring out how a pattern or event can fail. Both fail in a benign way, and fail in an impactful way.

It's good to talk about fails. This way we don't have to hear the whining if they ever do. Well, I suppose we will....but hopefully some are educated on it. 

[forkyfork]

36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 That is a massive Ridge. I'm not sure I can recall  the last time I saw that.

it sorta looks like dec 1960

[ORH_wxman]

Ways this pattern fails (and by fail, I mean to produce a >6" snowfall):

1. Too much geopotential gradient and you get no large systems. Just a few weak clipper type storms.

2. Little or no blocking in the Atlantic leads to a cutter or two instead of storms going south of us.

3. Good ole fashioned bad luck. Close whiff.

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's good to talk about fails. This way we don't have to hear the whining if they ever do. Well, I suppose we will....but hopefully some are educated on it. 

You're right about the cutter reaction. People will be up in arms about a colossal bust, but if ITH gets dumped on and we see a rain and mix it's not a pattern bust. On the global scale, missing by a a couple hundred miles is nothing. 

I think when the "good pattern" talk starts everyone has visions of James to MPM buried up to their weenies. Somebody has to come out a relative winner or loser. And patterns where everyone cashes is are rare.

[Damage In Tolland]

Any snow we get will be good. If it’s 1-3” Once or twice,,everyone here would be happy 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean, for the record, that's kind of an important part of meteorology, figuring out how a pattern or event can fail. Both fail in a benign way, and fail in an impactful way.

With so many forecast fails in the nyc area, the scale has tipped the other way imo. Before the March blizzard, I spoke to many people in Manhattan the day before and most just rolled their eyes and didn’t believe 2ft of snow and a complete shutdown was coming...and the public was right. I think it was a result of Jan 15 bust in nyc. Then you have a situation like Boxing Day 2010 where the forecast was delayed and you had a nightmare of cars being stuck on highways and city streets not plowed for days. Even Jan 16, nyc was not alerted with 2ft forecast until the snow had already started.

People down here don’t believe the big snow forecasts anymore. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Any snow we get will be good. If it’s 1-3” Once or twice,,everyone here would be happy 

I would consider that a fail given the pattern. Not sure how you could be happy coming out of this with 2-6” of snow

[OceanStWx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

With so many forecast fails in the nyc area, the scale has tipped the other way imo. Before the March blizzard, I spoke to many people in Manhattan the day before and most just rolled their eyes and didn’t believe 2ft of snow and a complete shutdown was coming...and the public was right. I think it was a result of Jan 15 bust in nyc. Then you have a situation like Boxing Day 2010 where the forecast was delayed and you had a nightmare of cars being stuck on highways and city streets not plowed for days. Even Jan 16, nyc was not alerted with 2ft forecast until the snow had already started.

People down here don’t believe the big snow forecasts anymore. 

Meh, I think this is closer to reality.

There are so many sources now, for starters. But we all know there is the underlying "they always get it wrong" mentality, and forecast busts just reinforce that. It's confirmation bias at its best. Credit is rarely given for a good forecast, especially a correct forecast of a null event.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I would consider that a fail given the pattern. Not sure how you could be happy coming out of this with 2-6” of snow

There’s no “coming out of this” lol. This is locking in

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s no “coming out of this” lol. This is locking in

Forever?

[Typhoon Tip]

I realize this product is probably not the most refined product out there but holy crap...

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_12z/hgtcomp.html

 

That's about 6 dm from a hemispheric split ...cleaved right down the middle of the geographic N pole.  .. 

And that's consistent with all...  

so much so that I'm left to question the veracity of the CPC PNA numbers ... I mean, having that deep trough NE of HA like that is a quintessential +PNA and the counterbalancing ridge is top tier ...  Those PNA values in the CPC ...I wonder if the lagging/nagging neutral positive WPO is "stealing" here...  

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

You're right about the cutter reaction. People will be up in arms about a colossal bust, but if ITH gets dumped on and we see a rain and mix it's not a pattern bust. On the global scale, missing by a a couple hundred miles is nothing. 

I think when the "good pattern" talk starts everyone has visions of James to MPM buried up to their weenies. Somebody has to come out a relative winner or loser. And patterns where everyone cashes is are rare.

Yeah bust as it what could go wrong....not necessarily we all of the sudden have a AK black eye. I feel like Will had exactly what I had in mind, but I also feel like we'll have some fun in New England.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah bust as it one could go wrong....not necessarily we all of the sudden have a AK black eye. I feel like Will had exactly what I had in mind, but I also feel like we'll have some fun in New England.

You know the drill, any talk of caution flags is interpreted as a snowless torch through March. 

We're just trying to keep people away from the Tobin if the first threat goes begging.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

You're right about the cutter reaction. People will be up in arms about a colossal bust, but if ITH gets dumped on and we see a rain and mix it's not a pattern bust. On the global scale, missing by a a couple hundred miles is nothing. 

I think when the "good pattern" talk starts everyone has visions of James to MPM buried up to their weenies. Somebody has to come out a relative winner or loser. And patterns where everyone cashes is are rare.

That is what distinguishes whether or not a winter sucks, though...fine line bertween winning and losing.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Meh, I think this is closer to reality.

There are so many sources now, for starters. But we all know there is the underlying "they always get it wrong" mentality, and forecast busts just reinforce that. It's confirmation bias at its best. Credit is rarely given for a good forecast, especially a correct forecast of a null event.

Agree. But 8-12” forecast, getting 4” doesn’t bother Karen and Jo Shmo. Forecasting 24-36” shutting everything down, waking up to 4” is a memorable bust. The big busts leads to greater uncertainty from the Public. What happens then is the nws becomes gun shy on the next big one, underplay it with amounts...and Karen and Jo Schmo get stuck in 24” on the highway. And around we go. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I would consider that a fail given the pattern. Not sure how you could be happy coming out of this with 2-6” of snow

He knows not everyone agrees...he just wants a stir.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Agree. But 8-12” forecast, getting 4” doesn’t bother Karen and Jo Shmo. Forecasting 24-36” shutting everything down, waking up to 4” is a memorable bust. The big busts leads to greater uncertainty from the Public. What happens then is the nws becomes gun shy on the next big one, underplay it with amounts...and Karen and Jo Schmo get stuck in 24” on the highway. And around we go. 

It ended up being 8" in Central Park right? 

That was a pretty bad forecast, if you go 36" for NYC you better mean it (36" anywhere really). Ideally the forecaster forgets the last bust and continues to forecast based on the available information. 

That's one nice thing about working for the government, we aren't subject to criminal action for a bad forecast. So there is rarely any pressure put on to influence the next forecast one way or another. Now we're all subject to losing followers if we produce enough bad forecasts, that's a different story. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'd consider emerging from December with less than 12" a relative dissapointment...unless there was a main entree imminent.

[dryslot]

A Bust definition, You mean like forcasting a WSW for a NORLUN event then waking up to brown grass.......lol

[Typhoon Tip]

23 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Meh, I think this is closer to reality.

There are so many sources now, for starters. But we all know there is the underlying "they always get it wrong" mentality, and forecast busts just reinforce that. It's confirmation bias at its best. Credit is rarely given for a good forecast, especially a correct forecast of a null event.

you didn't ask me .. but, i think part of that is on us as Meteorologist. 

getting too cutesy with forecasts over generations and too specific is not a good thing.  The vernacular even is too defined/discrete for the level of technology - the former has always led the latter which in terms of public perception is backward.  

what do we expect - we're all nerds and probably even asbergery in this field - haha. seriously, though, if the forecasts were always more broadly stroked, while secretly knowing perhaps a bit more, that might have a better 'perception of on-going skill' ... 

but i know what you're crackin' your knuckles about to type upon reading that ...and that's that we have the unsavory responsibility to warn civility when big events threaten lives and property and unfortunately that requires a hot babe of a forecast.  not sure how to broadly stroke  (man these puns are flowin!!) NESDIS 4 coastal boobs ..ah, I mean bombs, and still convey the necessary level of alert.  so yeah...perhaps a catch 22 a bit there. 

at the the end of the day... it's almost like folks need to be educated how to 'take' the forecasts... 

[WxBlue]

Another thing to keep an eye on in long range: western Pacific typhoons. If we get re-curving typhoons, they could aid in enhancing blocks and troughs downstream.

[Ginx snewx]

34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ways this pattern fails (and by fail, I mean to produce a >6" snowfall):

1. Too much geopotential gradient and you get no large systems. Just a few weak clipper type storms.

2. Little or no blocking in the Atlantic leads to a cutter or two instead of storms going south of us.

3. Good ole fashioned bad luck. Close whiff.

Just looked at dec 45 daily weather maps day by day, man talk about ORH south specials. 33 inch snow amounts for the month common ORH south, -9 too. Oh how we pray. I also came across this, never see one like it and I thought you would appreciate the detail, of a late Nov 1945 snowstorm analysis, broke it down into 3 captures as I doubt this site can handle DJVU , pretty cool

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Just looked at dec 45 daily weather maps day by day, man talk about ORH south specials. 33 inch snow amounts for the month common ORH south, -9 too. Oh how we pray. I also came across this, never see one like it and I thought you would appreciate the detail, of a late Nov 1945 snowstorm analysis, broke it down into 3 captures as I doubt this site can handle DJVU , pretty cool

We’ll take it!