weathafella Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 22 minutes ago, nzucker said: Might not be ideal for snow as you posit, but that's an historic block being depicted on the 12z GFS. Obviously far out there, but this would be very rare territory with 582dm heights over Anchorage. Could be a good pattern for clippers/LES with the northern jet racing in from Saskatchewan. Post the more realistic ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: EPS does not mute, but enhances the look. Dream scenario shaping up for Dec. It also built up heights a bit more in AK. As Will alluded to, it may help force troughing west and not be cold and dry. Of course this is just one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2017 Author Share Posted November 28, 2017 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: Post the more realistic ensemble mean. the 384 hourness of that is probably arresting - or should be... as in, stopping one from wanting or needing to do any such comparison. having said that ... i wonder if there is a database that ranking those objects in the atmosphere? i'm sure there is - in fact .. vague memory of maybe Plymouth State maybe... anyway, record high heights... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: the 384 hourness of that is probably arresting - or should be... as in, stopping one from from wanting or needing to do any such comparison. Well my point is one perturbation shows an extreme scenario and the op run by itself beyond d3 is misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2017 Author Share Posted November 28, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: Well my point is one perturbation shows an extreme scenario and the op run by itself beyond d3 is misleading. oh i know dude... wouldn't it be something if the day 5 had that ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 42 minutes ago, das said: What's the largest snowpack you've ever had? Mine was 48.5" here in Central Maryland in Feb 2010 with 52" measured OTG just NE of me. I'm not thinking I'll ever see that in my new place just south of Burlington. Hope I'm wrong though... Like PF said, 33" is all time max depth at BTV (going back to the late 1800's with missing date in the 1920's and 30's) 4ft probably not too realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 1 minute ago, backedgeapproaching said: Like PF said, 33" is all time max depth at BTV (going back to the late 1800's with missing date in the 1920's and 30's) 4ft probably not too realistic. Remember, it took an all-time historic run for that to occur down there for him, while we swallowed bitter pill after bitter pill up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Champlain valley just isn't a great snow retention spot. The CAD there is very weak and they get plenty of downslope dandies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2017 Author Share Posted November 28, 2017 go wonder ... the ensembles show that solution to be a huge outlier with that ridging over the Alaska sector. a few members have some delicious solutions out there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: We prob get about 3 or 4 inverted trough events per year. They are usually nuisance crap events and once you hit January and February you basically have little interest in a 1.3" snow event. But this early it is a little more intriguing. One of our volunteer interns (now met intern at ALY) did a study on inverted trofs in the region, and his average was 3-4 per cool season. Your memory bank strikes again. Though he found that of all the trofs in the study window (last 10 years) 63% were headlined (could also be an advisory of course). Now he also identified the trofs by visually inspecting pressure patterns, so a broad, weak event may slip through the cracks. The point really is the true inverted trofs are more often than not headline-able events. But they also tend to be localized enough that they are meh-ed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Champlain valley just isn't a great snow retention spot. The CAD there is very weak and they get plenty of downslope dandies. To me it's not the downslope dandies, that's not even that bad... it's the fact that there's no barrier from the Hudson Valley to the Champlain valley so it starts blowing from the south and it's all over. It's like a feedback loop too...south winds get funneled between the Dacks and Greens, which just increases the flow and the warmth transport. Mild nights with south winds at 40F while it's 25F at MVL/MPV, lots of that stuff. Long prolonged melts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 EURO has a tremendous day 10 look with an offshore 1008mb low although weak produces a moderate amount of snow, our first accumulating snow chance of the season for the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 1 hour ago, backedgeapproaching said: Like PF said, 33" is all time max depth at BTV (going back to the late 1800's with missing date in the 1920's and 30's) 4ft probably not too realistic. Wow...just 33"? My record is 37" in Feb 2015. Had 36" in Feb 1969. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: It also built up heights a bit more in AK. As Will alluded to, it may help force troughing west and not be cold and dry. Of course this is just one run. I always root for the trough to dig into the lakes. No use for 5*F with cobalt blue skies and a biting wind....at least not with barren, cracked earth under foot- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: haha, i just want drama - ...snow's always been fun for me, but not quite in the wheelhouse of 'that or bust.' i want huge storm and/or giant events that challenge the very endurance of man. it just so happens to be, for the next 4.5 months we're not getting that from heat waves and basket ball sized hail. although... i'm in Will's camp that there's something truly ...almost of engineering prominence in the gathering forces that construct the life-cycle of big bomb. what i would give to take the entire scope of modern technology and transport it back in time to say 7 days before March 13 1888 ... what a 10 days that would be. I'd toss my modern technology out the window after I poured rain on top of a foot of snow, while NYC witnessed the white armageddon. I'll take my technology and wormhole to groundhog day 1978. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Actually Ray, I personally would like a deep trough into the OH Valley more so than the Great Lakes, Great lakes is too far north for a nice coastal storm on the New England benchmark, Oh Valley with a trough digging as far southeast as Cape Hatteras, NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 My Armageddon snowstorm was Jan 2005, followed by Jan 2015, 35" followed by 32" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 18z GFS likes the fourth of DEC for some wintry precip not quite the chill that DEC 8th brings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 6 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Actually Ray, I personally would like a deep trough into the OH Valley more so than the Great Lakes, Great lakes is too far north for a nice coastal storm on the New England benchmark, Oh Valley with a trough digging as far southeast as Cape Hatteras, NC I mean the trough centered at the longitude of the great lakes....but yes, the closed low barreling through the ORV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 27 minutes ago, powderfreak said: To me it's not the downslope dandies, that's not even that bad... it's the fact that there's no barrier from the Hudson Valley to the Champlain valley so it starts blowing from the south and it's all over. It's like a feedback loop too...south winds get funneled between the Dacks and Greens, which just increases the flow and the warmth transport. Mild nights with south winds at 40F while it's 25F at MVL/MPV, lots of that stuff. Long prolonged melts. Yeah the lack of CAD is the main culprit....you see it all over the northeast and New England, the best CAD spots are where the snow tends to pile up and retain...but I've often been surprised at how mild they are sometimes on a good west flow, so it definitely doesn't help. But the CAD is really the driver...even today you could see it...they had this SSW flow and shot up to 43...meanwhile most places to the east stayed in the 30s....some even struggling to crack freezing at similar elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 I hear ya Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 I want the trough to be positive tilted over the Midwest, neutral by about OH Valley and than negative over NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 18z GFS is a nice loop to run for Tip if he wants to see anomalous solutions...lol. That ridiculous NAO block and then a reload on the EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z GFS is a nice loop to run for Tip if he wants to see anomalous solutions...lol. That ridiculous NAO block and then a reload on the EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Ridiculous amount of cold air on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Ridiculous amount of cold air on the GFS. Naked dip into Cape Cod Bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Naked dip into Cape Cod Bay? hell no, I wouldn't get hypothermia but I would drop my body temp a good amount. Dangerous cold water from the Labrador current, the temps in the sound and bay are around 10C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 THis is the best Dec has looked since I started lurking in 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Well looks are nice and all, but lets get results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 The dec 6-7th period is starting to look interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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