SnowHole413 Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 The GFS gets real cold after the 8th. I have to get telling myself, 10 more days. Just a long 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Ray, you too busy for a writing project? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Ray, you too busy for a writing project? Between work, my blog, gf and studying to get licensed....I am right now. Maybe after the pattern breaks in January... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 I would rather work on a novel, I at least know how to write a novel somewhat, scripts are hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2017 Author Share Posted November 28, 2017 47 minutes ago, dryslot said: Avg Nov snow up here is 3" so the expectations are quite low for anything of a siggy nature, But once Dec rolls around, Those avgs go up considerably to just over 13" so my expectations will become elevated. oh right - duh. ur in maine. yeah that does skew the expectation curve. when i said that i was thinking mid way between Worcester and Boston down this way. good buddy of mine at work bought a fixer upper about 10 minutes down the way from the Saco "cesspool" River entry point - Fryberg Maine? ... he's been pretty explicit about what the weather and climate is in interior zones up that way. he's got the Mt Washington visible in his back yard on clear days. anyway, he was lamenting that even in our bad winters down here, he's got a snow pack of some kind there. He was saying they head less (believe it or not) than we did in 2015 - which I thought was interesting. ... i wonder what the return rate on white xmass' is there? i bet it's better than 50/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2017 Author Share Posted November 28, 2017 Welp ... this GFS run is unfortunately too much of a good thing again. This is a single run microcosmic example of what plagued the last two winters ... it may also be an artifice of La Nina? ...hm. But, tough to do much in a field with heights nearing 590 over Key West, and 498 between Lake Superior and JB... That much gradient is sheary teary eye sh!t show. good for pond hockey though... this run's got that goin' for it. ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: oh right - duh. ur in maine. yeah that does skew the expectation curve. when i said that i was thinking mid way between Worcester and Boston down this way. good buddy of mine at work bought a fixer upper about 10 minutes down the way from the Saco "cesspool" River entry point - Fryberg Maine? ... he's been pretty explicit about what the weather and climate is in interior zones up that way. he's got the Mt Washington visible in his back yard on clear days. anyway, he was lamenting that even in our bad winters down here, he's got a snow pack of some kind there. He was saying they head less (believe it or not) than we did in 2015 - which I thought was interesting. ... i wonder what the return rate on white xmass' is there? i bet it's better than 50/50 Nice area actually, He is in a good spot in the lower foothill/lakes region there, They have good retention in that area as they avg in IZG around 75"/yr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2017 Author Share Posted November 28, 2017 by the way, ... i haven't heard anyone else give mention so if so, sorry, but... has anyone noticed that the big warm up post thanks giving completely and utterly failed. i mean... really, really badly... i don't see how we're getting more than a tick or two above average out of this week -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2017 Author Share Posted November 28, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: Nice area actually, He is in a good spot in the lower foothill/lakes region there, They have good retention in that area as they avg in IZG around 75"/yr that's kind of the impression i got, actually... that he's sort of in a natural cold "tuck" maybe. i mean ... he's a computer scientist. i'm a met cross-over.., so, he's explaining it to me, and i'm drafting up visions of what's going on there. i've been to fryberg and your right - wow! on a clear day that range of mountains there that is just on the eastern part of the White's spine is almost enough to pull your steering wheel off the road if it's ur first time and ur seeing it while trying to drive. ...and, it's flat near that river. Saco is slow mover - hence the canoe industry... i can imagine in the summer it's got a way of over achieving heat much in the same way that it's a great damming location for cold and probably protects its snow packs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: that's kind of the impression i got, actually... that he's sort of in a natural cold "tuck" maybe. i mean ... he's a computer scientist. i'm a met cross-over.., so, he's explaining it to me, and i'm drafting up visions of what's going on there. i've been to fryberg and your right - wow! on a clear day that range of mountains there that is just on the eastern part of the White's spine is almost enough to pull your steering wheel off the road if it's ur first time and ur seeing it while trying to drive. ...and, it's flat near that river. Saco is slow mover - hence the canoe industry... i can imagine in the summer it's got a way of over achieving heat much in the same way that it's a great damming location for cold and probably protects its snow packs. They are a reall good radiator in the winter but will furnace in the summer as well, The saco makes for a good white water rafting trip as well if the river flow is there, Best bet is early on, Late season you may end up dragging your raft over some very shallow sections as well as the booze raft in tow................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: by the way, ... i haven't heard anyone else give mention so if so, sorry, but... has anyone noticed that the big warm up post thanks giving completely and utterly failed. i mean... really, really badly... i don't see how we're getting more than a tick or two above average out of this week -- Yep. Pretty amazing how flat it fell actually. Tomorrow will be above average but not anything like a +15 or better like it looked several days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Eh, I’ll take the overall lock at this lead time all day and not worry about op gfs truncated surface spit outs. Pond hockey or shovels, winter is locked for an early start. I take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yep. Pretty amazing how flat it fell actually. Tomorrow will be above average but not anything like a +15 or better like it looked several days ago. Any temp outlook past 4-5 days is dicey at best it seems lately...the cooler temps seem to be prevailing more than the warmer ones this November....that seems to be a good sign in my opinion. Hope when the more sustained cold sets in, we can get some action to pop up near the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2017 Author Share Posted November 28, 2017 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yep. Pretty amazing how flat it fell actually. Tomorrow will be above average but not anything like a +15 or better like it looked several days ago. you know it's funny ... i was thinking this could happen, because ...it happened all summer? seriously, i lost count on how many times a ridge roll-out took place inn the models on D8 or 9, replete with +18 C 850s ...and what came to pass was a 18 hours of humidity then a fropa. It was the hottest summer on record ...in the models. ha... but this ridge decay going from D8 to D2 ... was really quite similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Very cool how the Massive -EPO dislodges the cold from Siberia and sends it directly over the pole to Canada Upper Midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Models deff over hyped the warmth up this summer...pray they don’t over hype the cold in winter. As if guidance is acting like the atmopshere, where it tries to balance itself out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: you know it's funny ... i was thinking this could happen, because ...it happened all summer? seriously, i lost count on how many times a ridge roll-out took place inn the models on D8 or 9, replete with +18 C 850s ...and what came to pass was a 18 hours of humidity then a fropa. It was the hottest summer on record ...in the models. ha... but this ridge decay going from D8 to D2 ... was really quite similar. And like summer it’s localized to us. NYC south was mostly above freezing for lows this morning while NNE had singles and teens and SNE teens and 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Nickel and dime pattern thru mid Dec. Get a couple fast moving s/w’s to drop 1-3” lolli 4”. Better than waiting for big one that never comes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: And like summer it’s localized to us. NYC south was mostly above freezing for lows this morning while NNE had singles and teens and SNE teens and 20s Trough orientation is getting better long term, fast flow with a screaming jet, need a couple of buckles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Trough orientation is getting better long term, fast flow with a screaming jet, need a couple of buckles 1970. That was a fun December. 6-10 seemingly once a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nickel and dime pattern thru mid Dec. Get a couple fast moving s/w’s to drop 1-3” lolli 4”. Better than waiting for big one that never comes Maybe we can do both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nickel and dime pattern thru mid Dec. Get a couple fast moving s/w’s to drop 1-3” lolli 4”. Better than waiting for big one that never comes Would you rather 25 nickels or a dollar bill and a quarter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: Would you rather 25 nickels or a dollar bill and a quarter? 25 nickels. I’d always be receiving money and my pockets would be heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 25 nickels. I’d always be receiving money and my pockets would be heavy I’d rather a 15 inch dump once a month vs 4 inches per week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Yeah the so-called torch failed big time. It's not far away, just not quite making it into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: I’d rather a 15 inch dump once a month vs 4 inches per week. Kevin is used to taking it inch by inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: I’d rather a 15 inch dump once a month vs 4 inches per week. Too much down time and waiting around. Snows every other day For life and FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Kevin is used to taking it inch by inch. Please explain what you mean by this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: I’d rather a 15 inch dump once a month vs 4 inches per week. I have a daily 15" dump...not that anyone asked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 There's times where I love the constant nickel and dimes. Near the holidays is one of them. So at least for December, id prob agree with Kevin. But once were in to January and beyond, I def favor the big dogs. But this pattern will probably initially be a bit tight on the gradient...so smaller systems could be favored early on. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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