Late autumn, early winter model mayhem

[weathafella]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Too much down time and waiting around. Snows every other day For life and FTW

Different strokes.  2-4 are fun but in every nickel and dime winter I’m left unfulfilled unless there’s at least one 12+ dump in there.  Winters that feature 12+ events  monthly with not much in between are fonder in memory.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I have a daily 15" dump...not that anyone asked.

I’ll have what he’s having.....

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Too much down time and waiting around. Snows every other day For life and FTW

Boring. That's like an area that gets meh upslope. Unless you ski, it's a PITA to have to clean off your car and driveway every morning for 1-3" of fluff while your snowpack grows by about a half inch.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Boring. That's like an area that gets meh upslope. Unless you ski, it's a PITA to have to clean off your car and driveway every morning for 1-3" of fluff while your snowpack grows by about a half inch.

Jspin just punched one of his students.

[dryslot]

We will start with the SWFE over runners, Can always move up to KU's from there if need be.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Jspin just punched one of his students.

I wish I didn't lose my wx data. I'd like to see how many seasons in the past decade I had a larger max snow pack than he did. He obviously crushes my annual snowfall every year. And to be clear, I wouldn't call his upslope "meh". That would be more like Alex's.

[dryslot]

12z Euro with the IVT off the Mid coast of Maine on Sunday, Still way out in time.

[Spanks45]

Sign me up for the end of the EURO run, not gonna happen, but it sure does look nice...

[Cold Miser]

49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's times where I love the constant nickel and dimes. Near the holidays is one of them. So at least for December, id prob agree with Kevin. But once were in to January and beyond, I def favor the big dogs.  

But this pattern will probably initially be a bit tight on the gradient...so smaller systems could be favored early on. We will see. 

This, and hopefully the periods between the big dogs are not too above normal temps wise to allow for snow cover to linger. 

[Hazey]

The long range after the 8th of December looks promising. That's when the cold really gets established according to the models. Hope it holds as the timing looks good for the holidays.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

This, and hopefully the periods between the big dogs are not too above normal temps wise to allow for snow cover to linger. 

You are a big  kind of guy

[Typhoon Tip]

haha, i just want drama - ...snow's always been fun for me, but not quite in the wheelhouse of 'that or bust.'  i want huge storm and/or giant events that challenge the very endurance of man. 

it just so happens to be, for the next 4.5 months we're not getting that from heat waves and basket ball sized hail. 

although... i'm in Will's camp that there's something truly ...almost of engineering prominence in the gathering forces that construct the life-cycle of big bomb. 

what i would give to take the entire scope of modern technology and transport it back in time to say 7 days before March 13 1888 ... what a 10 days that would be.

[Cold Miser]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You are a big  kind of guy

Bigger the better.

6"/hr  will most likely never happen again in our lifetime.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Of course central and southern New England want the bigger dogs, the daily 2-3" refreshers (not twice weekly) but daily is not realistic nor have we experienced it for more than a week or two. Never mind a season.  ????

[ORH_wxman]

That PNA/EPO ridge just keeps wanting to reload on the longer range guidance. Pretty impressive the force behind it. Without trying to sound too weenieish, that's not an ambiguous cold signal in the 11-15...it's about as robust as you will see at this time lead.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That PNA/EPO ridge just keeps wanting to reload on the longer range guidance. Pretty impressive the force behind it. Without trying to sound too weenieish, that's not an ambiguous cold signal in the 11-15...it's about as robust as you will see at this time lead.

it is....

i wanna see the WPO numbers but they didn't release them last night

[dryslot]

Even if you delay that cold shot, The chances at something along the lines of a grinch period looks like it would not occur this year.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it is....

i wanna see the WPO numbers but they didn't release them last night

I still think the WPO numbers will prob be muted at least initially as the core of the ridge builds from the PAC NW up into Yukon/NW Territories, but we see it retrograde some after that point and that is where the WPO would start falling.

 

I'd expect the numeric values to show up strongly first in the PNA and EPO.

[nzucker]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Welp ... this GFS run is unfortunately too much of a good thing again. 

This is a single run microcosmic example of what plagued the last two winters ... it may also be an artifice of La Nina?   ...hm. 

But, tough to do much in a field with heights nearing 590 over Key West, and 498 between Lake Superior and JB...  That much gradient is sheary teary eye sh!t show. 

good for pond hockey though...  this run's got that goin' for it.  ha

That's an incredible Alaska block (-EPO)...+5C 850s all the way up to the North Slope/Beaufort Sea in December. 

[WintersComing]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That PNA/EPO ridge just keeps wanting to reload on the longer range guidance. Pretty impressive the force behind it. Without trying to sound too weenieish, that's not an ambiguous cold signal in the 11-15...it's about as robust as you will see at this time lead.

Newb question here but with such a strong/robust ridge out west why are we still seeing the progressive flows throughout this same time period or am I off on this?  Thanks!

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I still think the WPO numbers will prob be muted at least initially as the core of the ridge builds from the PAC NW up into Yukon/NW Territories, but we see it retrograde some after that point and that is where the WPO would start falling.

 

I'd expect the numeric values to show up strongly first in the PNA and EPO.

i'm just wondering if we can get the whole thing, lock stock and all smokin barrels into an AB pacific mode - that's a huge huge storm signal if that can happen given to the still rich subtropical interface with the steepening hemispheric gradient...   but, ...it probably doesn't matter to storms themselves, just that that is's more confident if the hemisphere is in a stable Rossby ordering.  

[nzucker]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That PNA/EPO ridge just keeps wanting to reload on the longer range guidance. Pretty impressive the force behind it. Without trying to sound too weenieish, that's not an ambiguous cold signal in the 11-15...it's about as robust as you will see at this time lead.

The 12z GFS has an incredible Alaska block (-EPO)...+5C 850s get all the way to the Beaufort Sea. 

The CONUS grows extremely cold with -25C 850s into the Northern Plains. Looks like potential for an arctic outbreak.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, nzucker said:

That's an incredible Alaska block (-EPO)...+5C 850s all the way up to the North Slope/Beaufort Sea in December. 

it's a good point ... it some ways it's dumping too much cold too fast into a crucible down here at middle and low latitudes ... it just ends up speeding the flow up too much. we really want like -1 SD continental air along with an active southern Jet underneath.  more than that is killing us with kindness -

[nzucker]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it's a good point ... it some ways it's dumping too much cold too fast into a crucible down here at middle and low latitudes ... it just ends up speeding the flow up too much. we really want like -1 SD continental air along with an active southern Jet underneath.  more than that is killing us with kindness -

Might not be ideal for snow as you posit, but that's an historic block being depicted on the 12z GFS. Obviously far out there, but this would be very rare territory with 582dm heights over Anchorage. Could be a good pattern for clippers/LES with the northern jet racing in from Saskatchewan.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

Newb question here but with such a strong/robust ridge out west why are we still seeing the progressive flows throughout this same time period or am I off on this?  Thanks!

You can end up with too much geopotential gradient...Tip often alludes to this. It is when you have extreme meridional flow from up north into a heat ridge down south...we've seen this subtropical ridge pop on guidance and really it's been a strong influence going back to last winter. It is not uncommon in La Nina regimes.

 

Anyways, what happens is you get a very intense gradient in the flow between about 45N and 35N and it basically puts every vortmax and shortwave through the proverbial "meat grinder"....it's a fast flow. Now if you can get some Atlantic blocking to start causing a traffic jam downstream, then you will start to buckle the flow and damage the southern ridge somewhat....then we can have some fun. We do see some signs of at least transient blocking, so that could definitely happen....but in the meantime, you need to watch out for too much geopotential gradient....especially early on in the initial push of the arctic airmass. If the western ridge retrogrades a bit, then it would also create a little more room for impulses to work as you first dig the PJ into the southwest US or southern Rockies...you end up with a gradient pattern more like '93-'94 or something like that....but you do increase the risk of a cutter.

[das]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I wish I didn't lose my wx data. I'd like to see how many seasons in the past decade I had a larger max snow pack than he did. He obviously crushes my annual snowfall every year. And to be clear, I wouldn't call his upslope "meh". That would be more like Alex's.

What's the largest snowpack you've ever had?  Mine was 48.5" here in Central Maryland in Feb 2010 with 52" measured OTG just NE of me.  I'm not thinking I'll ever see that in my new place just south of Burlington.  Hope I'm wrong though...

[alex]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I wish I didn't lose my wx data. I'd like to see how many seasons in the past decade I had a larger max snow pack than he did. He obviously crushes my annual snowfall every year. And to be clear, I wouldn't call his upslope "meh". That would be more like Alex's.

Leave my upslope alone 

[WintersComing]

You can end up with too much geopotential gradient...Tip often alludes to this. It is when you have extreme meridional flow from up north into a heat ridge down south...we've seen this subtropical ridge pop on guidance and really it's been a strong influence going back to last winter. It is not uncommon in La Nina regimes.

 

Anyways, what happens is you get a very intense gradient in the flow between about 45N and 35N and it basically puts every vortmax and shortwave through the proverbial "meat grinder"....it's a fast flow. Now if you can get some Atlantic blocking to start causing a traffic jam downstream, then you will start to buckle the flow and damage the southern ridge somewhat....then we can have some fun. We do see some signs of at least transient blocking, so that could definitely happen....but in the meantime, you need to watch out for too much geopotential gradient....especially early on in the initial push of the arctic airmass. If the western ridge retrogrades a bit, then it would also create a little more room for impulses to work as you first dig the PJ into the southwest US or southern Rockies...you end up with a gradient pattern more like '93-'94 or something like that....but you do increase the risk of a cutter.

Makes sense now and thanks for that explanation!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, das said:

What's the largest snowpack you've ever had?  Mine was 48.5" here in Central Maryland in Feb 2010 with 52" measured OTG just NE of me.  I'm not thinking I'll ever see that in my new place just south of Burlington.  Hope I'm wrong though...

Yeah good luck with that in BTV land.  The Champlain Valley is just so wide open to warmth from the south that it's hard to build up anything big...and far enough from the Atlantic that your chances of a 3" QPF snow event are quite small.  I've seen 30" depths there but I'd be surprised if they have any records over 40".  

I had 42" in my first winter in Stowe in 2010-11 but I've only been here 6 years now.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

EPS does not mute, but enhances the look. Dream scenario shaping up for Dec.