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Jtm12180

Hurricane Maria

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1 minute ago, TriPol said:

Somebody give these recon pilots medals. They've done a terrific job flying into and giving us valuable data of two Category 5's and a Category 4 hurricane.

No kidding. They've been working multiple storms for weeks now with no break.

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This event is long from over. Note the intense CCs training directly over mountainous terrain off of the Caribbean. We will not have coms from the south facing slopes and low lying communites for a while. I have a great fear of mudflows being the big killer as this event progresses through the evening. There are some pretty steep and unstable slopes to contend with the already high precipitation that has occurred. Some people have a natural tendency to feel optimistic after landfall. I won't for several days. A tropical wave in the 1980s killed hundereds in the same location. Not trying to overhype or be an alarmnist. It's just a bad mix of geology and water in an event such as this and we are not done until Maria has pulled quite a good distance to the WNW. Hopefully people got away from mudflow prone areas. Unfortunately, that geography makes up a lot of the south facing slopes.2dbbf5e21ca1077948ffc11d2d33c256.jpg

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57 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I'm guessing the cell towers might be out on the SE side of the island where he was.  This will probably be one of his more unpleasant chases.  Might take awhile for him to get back to San Juan.  Getting a flight out of the island might take awhile too.  

https://twitter.com/radioislatv/status/910542313318961152

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8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The Euro trended stronger with the SE ridge. Let's see if that makes a difference with the trough.

59c2b37d90487.png

Hour 174 200 miles east of Norfolk moving WNW, and she's a monster 

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12z EURO - 192 still sitting off the MA coast by 200 miles or so... not a large amount of movement between 168 and 192.. gets booted NE by the trough and out toward Nova Scotia at 216

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7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It still gets kicked out by the trough in the end.

Yes but a very close call none the less , there's still plenty of time for the models to figure out the upper air pattern. The trend today is for a slowing moving Maria up the coast and  a much weaker Jose...

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2 hours ago, Papa Joe said:

I tend to believe it. If you look at the gauges on the east of the island, you'll see the peak flood already starting to recede. That's what you'd expect with steep terrain. 

 

Note that the streams on the west are still on the way up. 

Lots of the terrain on the northern half of the island is steep ravines that feed quickly into the coastal plain. The rivers are super-flashy, though historically used to having lots of rain during the summer. I would imagine the ravines got completely full and probably scoured out whatever was there (hopefully few buildings and people, though I worry that was not the case), carrying everything in their path down toward the coast.

Given the steep terrain, how could a sensor be positioned to measure both low flows and these crazy numbers that are being reported, without being submerged under rushing water and debris?

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6 minutes ago, mayjawintastawm said:

Lots of the terrain on the northern half of the island is steep ravines that feed quickly into the coastal plain. The rivers are super-flashy, though historically used to having lots of rain during the summer. I would imagine the ravines got completely full and probably scoured out whatever was there (hopefully few buildings and people, though I worry that was not the case), carrying everything in their path down toward the coast.

Given the steep terrain, how could a sensor be positioned to measure low flows and these crazy numbers that are being reported, without being submerged under rushing water and debris?

Most gauges work based on the pressure water exerts on them internally (typically pushing a gas bubble through a tube inside the gauge). That relates to water level and streamflow. The actual transmission of the data can be done from a safe distance/height from the water source, and can be done through solar energy and satellite, so the loss of electricity is not always a problem.

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Inevitably the solution all models show now with the scare and then kick out will likely be wrong.  Mostly because it's remote the models could have this handed so correctly this far out.  I'd almost rather see them unanimously showing a direct hit right now 

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9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Inevitably the solution all models show now with the scare and then kick out will likely be wrong.  Mostly because it's remote the models could have this handed so correctly this far out.  I'd almost rather see them unanimously showing a direct hit right now 

Most of the models show it getting pretty close to shore, too, which isn't going to help. Norfolk area is used to tropical storms and the occasional weakened Cat 1, and it's also predominantly military families. Based on my experience living there for 25 years or so, if people don't think they need to evacuate then many/most aren't going to, and the bridges and tunnels in the area make evacuation really problematic. A big storm coming right up to them and then turning would either be a PR problem (due to evacuation that didn't need to happen) or an infrastructure capacity problem (if people aren't told to evacuate because of the curve and then it never curves). If this were to hit as a Cat 2-3, I don't think they'd see it coming.

I would assume this to be less of a problem if it hits more south of that area (since they've dealt with stronger storms) or north of that area (since they get so few hits they would take it more seriously).

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16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Inevitably the solution all models show now with the scare and then kick out will likely be wrong.  Mostly because it's remote the models could have this handed so correctly this far out.  I'd almost rather see them unanimously showing a direct hit right now 

I think bermuda ridges can to be under modeled too. Seems like cold regions like Greenland, models tend to overdue the ridging and warm regions like the west Atlantic tend be to underdone. I have zero data to back this up though. 

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It will get it's time to get it's act back together. Disruption was not minimal by any means. Slow and gradual strengthening the next 24 hours are expected, since atmospheric and oceanic conditions are very favorable. Afterwards, conditions are still favorable, just not as much as currently, but I expect continued intensification up to the next 72 hours. Borderline cat 3/4 is my guess for it's next peak, before slowly unraveling.

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Inevitably the solution all models show now with the scare and then kick out will likely be wrong.  Mostly because it's remote the models could have this handed so correctly this far out.  I'd almost rather see them unanimously showing a direct hit right now 

However there are many more ways for this to miss the US, than hit it.

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32 minutes ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said:

nobodys talking about all the flood rescues that must be going on now.

sooo many of these rivers are 20 feet above their record levels !

this is astonishing.

hover over, to look at current levels

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=sju

Not to underplay the flooding, but I don't see a single guage that is 20 feet above record levels...CIAP4 is +17 and COMP4 is +15...those are the two highest presently relative to records shown on the charts...

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9 minutes ago, Capt. Adam said:

Not to underplay the flooding, but I don't see a single guage that is 20 feet above record levels...CIAP4 is +17 and COMP4 is +15...those are the two highest presently relative to records shown on the charts...

I think it makes sense to toss that one reading on the Rio Grande de Manati until proven otherwise. It doesn't match with the readings before and after at that gauge, upstream and downstream on that river, or to any of the rivers in the area.

The COMP4 is more troubling because it isn't just one anomalous reading but it's at such an extraordinary level I'm not sure what to make of it.

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