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  1. I'm just going to say I wish we would have had recon for Haiyan at its peak intensity. Patricia is the strongest storm on record because we had those jaw-dropping recon measurements. Without recon it would have been satellite estimates and we never would have known. Me too, and Haiyan was probably the most intense landfalling system we've had on record. I did some volunteer work after Haiyan in Tacloban City and I can't describe how horrifying the damage was- it was like entering a post-apocalyptic world. Water shortages and cholera outbreaks and people stranded in trees (some alive, many not.) Entire families obliberated yet somehow a very young child heard crying in a pile of rubble with no one around to tend to them. But a lot of stories of courage too, with people coming to the aid of those they had never seen before and giving up what little they had to others who needed it more. Crazy to think that another ST of almost the same intensity, Meranti, hit just 3 years later, in the northernmost Philippines.
  2. Everything will be gone when that big cold front gets here later next week. Then it'll finally feel like fall. It could be worse- Chicago is going to be in the mid 90s for a few days!
  3. The reason Patricia seems to be such an outlier (no other storm in the East Pac came even close to its numbers) was, I think, because of the nearly historic El Nino of the time. Generally speaking, the top Caribbean storms are more powerful than the top East Pac storms. But factoring in storm size, intensity, winds, etc., all together- do you feel like Patricia was the strongest storm on record, or do you think that storms like Tip, Haiyan, Meranti, Angela, etc., are in a higher class of TC? Because of the huge size and depth of warm waters in the West Pac, it seems to me that getting something of that enormous energy into even the Caribbean would be extremely difficult. Patricia was extremely intense but relatively puny by comparison. I realize that wasn't the original question, but it got me thinking about the strongest storms on Earth.
  4. Earlier last night it was actually looking like a hurricane symbol!
  5. I was hoping to get some late season swimming in when the beaches are less crowded and the rip currents next week will probably be pretty bad. Next week may be the last week to go swimming since it looks like a big cold front will come through late next week and that will probably put an end to the beach season for this year.
  6. No, by aggravating I mean it's going to stir up rip currents next week and be bad for swimming on the east coast for those of us who like to go to the beach and enjoy late September beach weather because it's much less crowded at the beaches this time of year.
  7. I can tell this is going to be aggravating for next week but will probably end up doing what most TCs do at that latitude- recurve.
  8. I remember that now! Back then we were talking about how the big activity switches to Central America in November. It's hard to remember anything after Wilma since it broke so many records in the Atlantic Basin. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_most_intense_tropical_cyclones I was looking at this list and how the different basins stack up and it seems like the pressure-wind relationship is different in different parts of the world. It also makes it somewhat confusing since other tropical organizations use either 3 min or 10 min wind speeds. Either way, I think I found about 17 storms that were stronger than Wilma (going by wind speed or pressure- most of them were in the West Pac.) Found this interesting tidbit on Haiyan: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Haiyan The records set by Tip still technically stand, though with the end of routine reconnaissance aircraft flights in the western Pacific Ocean in August 1987, modern researchers have questioned whether Tip indeed remains the strongest. After a detailed study, three researchers determined that two typhoons, Angela in 1995 and Gay in 1992, registered higher Dvorak numbers than Tip, and concluded that one or both of the two may have therefore been more intense.[21] Other recent storms may have also been deeper than Tip at its peak; for instance, satellite-derived intensity estimates for Typhoon Haiyan of 2013 indicated that its core pressure may have been as low as 858 mbar (25.34 inHg).[22] Due to the dearth of direct observations into these cyclones, conclusive data are lacking.[21] Interesting thing about Tip was that (1) the name wasn't retired for some reason and (2) not only was it the most intense TC we know about, it was the largest on record too. That's a very rare combination you don't see much and makes me wonder if it could have been even stronger had it been a smaller sized storm. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Tip#Records_and_meteorological_statistics Typhoon Tip was the largest tropical cyclone on record, with a diameter of 1,380 mi (2,220 km)—almost double the previous record of 700 mi (1,130 km) set by Typhoon Marge in August 1951.[15][16][17] At its largest, Tip was nearly half the size of the contiguous United States.[18] The temperature inside the eye of Typhoon Tip at peak intensity was 30 °C (86 °F) and described as exceptionally high.[1] With 10-minute sustained winds of 160 mph (260 km/h), Typhoon Tip is the strongest cyclone in the complete tropical cyclone listing by the Japan Meteorological Agency.[3] The typhoon was also the most intense tropical cyclone on record, with a pressure of 870 mbar (25.69 inHg), 6 mbar (0.18 inHg) lower than the previous record set by Super Typhoon June in 1975.
  9. Thanks, Jorge. That peak in October for the W. Caribbean must be what contributes to that secondary spike overall in the Atlantic Basin. I've noticed this before, even in hyperactive seasons, that tropical activity seems to fall off a cliff after late October though. In 2005 we went to the Greek alphabet but never had anything major after Wilma (as far as I remember.)
  10. Thanks, it's interesting to see how the various factors coupled together to produce this kind of result. Going forward, it's interesting to speculate whether or not the enhanced activity will continue into October like some previous hyperactive seasons have or will there be a notable downturn? Don't the Gulf and Caribbean seasons actually peak in October?
  11. I think it would be difficult, because at peak intensity Patricia was such an outlier. When you graph hurricanes along an axis of winds vs pressure, Patricia is as far off the charts as a hypergiant star would be on the H-R diagram- there are only a few of those in an entire galaxy of 200 billion stars, and hurricanes like Patricia must similarly be extremely rare, even going back to prehistoric times. Patricia being that strong was partly due to the fact that we had a very strong (almost historic) el nino and of course there may be some climate change influence too. I don't think you could get a Haiyan or Tip in the Atlantic basin either. Tropical Pacific stored energy is way off the charts compared to any part of the Atlantic and also covers a far larger area.
  12. Is that part of the basin unusually warm for this time of year, Chris, or is it the fact that we've had these unusual tracks this season? In 1995 didn't we get a lot of Caribbean hits? And yet no Cat 5.
  13. If the storm is going to retrograde over the next couple of days I wonder if the wind gusts and/or rainfall will pick back up or is this storm already too weak to give us anything more than it already has?
  14. Yep- there's an eye and it's about 45 miles wide, so it expanded after its interaction with PR and re-emergence back out over the water. I didn't know that any of this was in dispute lol. It's still a major (or rather back up to Cat 3 after going down to Cat 2) but definitely not what it once was. The hurricane has expanded in size though, so conservation of momentum has been maintained, but don't know if it'll matter much since the path of the storm has now been adjusted to the east so sustained hurricane force winds may not be felt in any inhabited areas (not even the Bahamas or DR.)
  15. Dr. Rick Knabb as a past director of the NHC was really good too and now we get to enjoy him on TWC. He emphasized from the beginning how bad the flooding problem with Maria would be and how flooding is the leading killer in TCs. He's on there from 9 pm to 1 am ET.