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About Paragon

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  1. It connects most the dots in the best way though. If you dont use CC then there are two different sets of changes you have to explain. Besides the higher snowfall totals along the coast right now, the other one is DC's decaying snowfall climatology. Back in the 80s and prior, Dulles used to outdo NYC in about half their winters in snowfall. Now it rarely ever happens anymore. So what we're seeing is decaying snowfall averages to our south. If you follow the conjecture that I was using the other day, you can explain it by saying that our coastal plain is in an intermediate stage right now, where higher RH has yielded bigger events but eventually it'll all catch up and our coastal regions will be the first to experience the decaying DC snowfall climatology; that line is slowly moving north. First we are seeing the higher RH benefits of being further east but eventually the warming will catch up to us from the south- I give it until 2050 for that to happen and then our snowfall climatology will resemble where DC has decayed to now. It also bolsters my conjecture that the storms that were going out to sea back then are now coming closer to the coast, because a stronger SE Ridge would not only move the storm track further to the west, but also further north. Based on that, the storms that are hitting the area right now would have fringed us back then (and perhaps hit the DC area directly before passing well to the south and east of us.)
  2. Winter 2017-18 banter thread

    Wow it has Montauk at 31" I wonder where they come up with these numbers?
  3. Hudson Valley Earthquake

    I went full solar and haven't looked back At this point, I'd far prefer nuclear over any fossil fuel. No methane leaks with nuclear either (and methane is far more of a greenhouse gas than CO2- 86x more as a matter of fact.) Obviously fusion over fission, but we have to have controllable fusion first. The projections I've looked at mention that we have the capability of going fully renewable by 2050.
  4. Winter 2017-18 banter thread

    Didn't Dulles used to outdo NYC in at least half their winters?
  5. Winter 2017-18 banter thread

    For Philly and Baltimore too ;-) It would have been for us but we mostly whiffed on that first storm.
  6. I dont think we've had an areawide 6+ snowstorm after March 15th since April 1982. That one in the early 90s doesn't count because it was only a couple of inches at JFK and changed to rain.
  7. They're also forgetting that Brooklyn and Queens were basically rural back then with farmland and such. Heck so was northern Manhattan.
  8. Right but what I was wondering is if time of season impacts storm track- in other words do storms have more of a tendency to tuck in March rather than in January, Funny thing is before 1996, you have to go really far back to find a January HECS. And since about 2010 all of our HECS have occurred in either late December or January. (HECS = or > 18 inches)
  9. Seasonal shift in track? I dont know.... do late season storms have more of a tendency to tuck into the coast?
  10. Winter 2017-18 banter thread

    I remember we had this big heavy snow event in February when a crane fell in Manhattan. We had a couple of those post frontal snowfall events.
  11. Late season storms usually either favor inland areas or eastern LI for the reason you mentioned.
  12. I think some of that might have had to do with it being in March, might have had a different outcome if it was on Jan 20th or something. Long Island (even here in Nassau County) has had big storms in late March and April, but I dont believe the city itself has had a post March 20 6"+ snowstorm since April 1982.
  13. If there are Neg NAO that are bad for us, there should be Pos NAO that are good for us- right? lol.
  14. We've had 22-25 inches of snow here, I dont know why Central Park is still stuck in the teens. I dont even pay any attention to airport snowfall "totals" lol
  15. that storm also came with a + nao