Jim Martin

Holy cow.

From the National Weather Service in Northern Indiana this evening... .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 Aforementioned system will phase with incoming secondary wave sharpening through the lakes Wed. Based on good model consensus will truncate pops associated with this feature further late Tue night/Wed. Thereafter attention yet another following nrn stream sw disturbance similarly progged to amplify considerably through the srn lakes late Thu/early Fri with a period of frontally forced rain. Still modest spread aloft seen in med range guidance and will generally follow blended pops. After that substantial ridging aloft builds east across the lakes downstream of quite robust meridonal deep trough building over the wrn US. This would point to very warm temps and dry wx manifesting through the OH valley Days 8-11 (Sun-Wed).

Looking like an active severe weather day possible for Tuesday. The Storm Prediction Center mentioning a fairly good risk for discrete supercells.

Latest tidbit from SPC on the afternoon Day 2 Outlook... CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO MUCH OF ALABAMA. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z IN EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND NEAR BIRMINGHAM SHOW MLCAPE VALUES REACHING THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION, THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL CREATE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR GENERALLY IN THE 60 TO 65 KT RANGE. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. THE SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL FORMATION ESPECIALLY FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER, WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE. A STRONG TORNADO MAY OCCUR WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN BECOME DOMINANT. THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL IS ALSO FORECAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN GEORGIA WHERE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY TAKE PLACE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY INCREASE BY EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY IF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CAN ORGANIZE.

Surprised none of you in here have mentioned the risk for severe weather on Monday...

From last night in Southeast Arkansas... 0221 300 PINE BLUFF JEFFERSON AR 3423 9200 MAXIMUM HAIL SIZE MEASURED WAS 3.50 INCHES. (LZK)

20 years ago next month was the famous Nashville, Tennessee tornado that was captured by WSMV Channel 4 and NewsChannel 5 as it moved through.

Tornado warning now for Bowling Green, Kentucky.

Other discrete storms developing now in north central Tennessee.

From the Storm Prediction Center in their latest Mesoscale Discussion... LLJ has strengthened across the Arklatex and shear profiles remain very favorable for supercells and potential tornadoes. While the warm front should continue to focus convection, especially just ahead of the surface low, robust convection should increase south of the low along the surging cold front over the next few hours. Damaging winds will become increasingly likely with surging line segments that mature along the cold front. Otherwise, tornado threat continues, especially with supercells.

Skies beginning to clear out some in eastern Arkansas/western Tennessee/northwest Mississippi. Current wind profile from Little Rock, Arkansas. Atmosphere becoming more unstable.

Possible tornado on radar already west of Y City, Arkansas, moving northeast at 50 MPH.

Tornado Watch forthcoming.