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Jtm12180

Hurricane Maria

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I posted this last night in the main Atlantic discussion thread. My thoughts haven't changed. Anxious to see if the 12z ECMWF release in about an hour continues to kick out Jose much faster for downstream implications with a future Maria and the CONUS. Obviously the more immediate dire cause to worry is the Antilles.

Big changes in the 00z ECMWF downstream. It still brings a hurricane through Lesser Antilles, PR/DR, but swiftly ejects Jose OTS and rebuilds heights over the Mid-Atlantic region. That screams CONUS threat. Also the 500-200 mb analysis looks sobering with regards to both GFS snd Euro through 5 days. We need the vort to take as long as possible in consolidating a core. Otherwise, in the event it gets going, I see little in the way of preventing a period or periods of significant rapid intensification either before or up until interaction with the Greater Antilles. Still too early to rule out the possibility of more latitude gained and another sweep through the more northern Lesser Antilles/Virgin/PR islands as well. And of course the more southern track into Hispaniola is always a recipe for massive loss of life. We don't even have a classified system yet and I'm getting nervous mainly because anywhere near that region right now seems cruel by the Gods. Either way it doesn't look good as this won't avoid land. Best we can hope for is slow development, fast motion and a weaker cyclone.


Edit: Jtm12180, if you don't mind maintaining, updating and editing the title of the thread over the coming days, this can continue on as the main discussion thread for Maria.

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Compared with 00Z GFS run, the hit is farther north. This corresponds with more of a piece of the trough in the Rockies lifting out over the Great Lakes. It seems if we can get the trough to stay consolidated in the Rockies the downstream ridge would build up and steer it more south. This will be interesting to watch from run to run.

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Banding is getting stronger. And I agree that the center may be south of track and model initialization. It was difficult to define an exact location earlier but that is no longer the case. This looks like a tropical storm. Would be surprised if this isn't upgraded to Maria at the 5 PM EST advisory. This is getting together fast.


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Boy, the models just can't decide what Jose is going to do, which means they also don't know what Maria will eventually do.  Last night's euro swept Jose up and away, opening the door for Maria.  The 12z once again has Jose stalling and drifting south, eventually grabbing Maria and pulling it out to sea with it.

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52 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

HWRF gives Puerto Rico a solid hit....

Stay away from PR and those Virgin Islands dirty cyclone!

Wow what a hurricane season.  They warned us it would be a bad one and they were right.  They have it around 90mph in the vicinity of PR -- watch it be way stronger. :(

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12z ECMWF flips back to stalling Jose instead of the 00z swift OTS solution. That results in some crazy fujiwara and phase play. This is going to be another one of those wait and see tracks. May take another day or two before the Euro gets a better handle on Jose for downstream CONUS impacts with Maria.

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1 minute ago, andyhb said:

Yeah I think we have Maria at this point. That's a well organized COC.

I mean, we didn't even need to go that far. The satellite image above is pretty much the epitome of a TS--and a moderate one at that...

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

HWRF is somewhat skilled with intensity progs, right?  

Now it is after the upgrade from what I've seen. Looks like it is hammering Puerto Rico as a Cat 4.

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FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 12.3N  52.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 13.0N  54.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 13.9N  56.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 14.6N  58.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 15.2N  59.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 16.5N  62.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  20/1800Z 17.9N  65.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  21/1800Z 19.5N  68.6W   95 KT 110 MPH

 

 

Increased quite a bit from the last advisory.

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM MARIA...
...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 52.6W
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Watch for Antigua,
Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia
* Martinique and Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of this system.  Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane
Watches will likely be issued tonight or early Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

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25 minutes ago, Amped said:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 12.3N  52.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 13.0N  54.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 13.9N  56.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 14.6N  58.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 15.2N  59.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 16.5N  62.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  20/1800Z 17.9N  65.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  21/1800Z 19.5N  68.6W   95 KT 110 MPH

 

 

Increased quite a bit from the last advisory.

Yeah NHC calling for a solid Cat 3 hit on Puerto Rico....guess mother nature isnt wanting anyone to feel left out this year....she has got one heck of a circulation building as well could be a very large cane...she is probably 300 miles top to bottom at the moment 

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Bad initialization on the GFS.   12.3 N is the advisory position 18z GFS has 12.9N at 6hrs.   The 12z GFS was actually much better and had it around 12.3 north at the same time.

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Maria, now a tropical storm, was situated at 12.3°N, 52.6°W. According to historic climatology, just under 1-in-5 tropical cyclones that formed within 100 nautical miles of Maria's area of development made U.S. landfall. However, a large number of those systems tracked generally westward, many dissipating in the process.

The synoptic pattern as currently modeled argues against such a scenario. Therefore, excluding the systems that tracked generally westward and failed to make a turn more to the north, the smaller sample yields a landfall probability closer to 2-in-5. That's quite high.

Notable systems that made U.S. landfall included Hurricanes David (1979), Frederic (1979), and Ivan (2004).

At least for now, Maria bears watching.
 

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9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Maria, now a tropical storm, was situated at 12.3°N, 52.6°W. According to historic climatology, just under 1-in-5 tropical cyclones that formed within 100 nautical miles of Maria's area of development made U.S. landfall. However, a large number of those systems tracked generally westward, many dissipating in the process.

The synoptic pattern as currently modeled argues against such a scenario. Therefore, excluding the systems that tracked generally westward and failed to make a turn more to the north, the smaller sample yields a landfall probability closer to 2-in-5. That's quite high.

Notable systems that made U.S. landfall included Hurricanes David (1979), Frederic (1979), and Ivan (2004).

At least for now, Maria bears watching.
 

These write ups are great. What would be awesome is if you could do the day 3 and/or day 5 NHC forecast positions as well. Maybe even create a weighted average (maybe like 40% current, 40% d3 and 20% d5). Obviously would be a lot of work, assuming you do it manually, but it would be a genuinely helpful metric for forecasting.

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