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Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

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14 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said:

WUNIDS_map.gif

Yeah, was just going to post, pretty well within range on Key West and Miami radars now.

2017-09-09_114821.jpg

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2 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Yeah. At least the curvature of the coast starts to bend more westerly soon. Should allow it to start to gain distance from the coast. It's also starting to pull away from the higher terrain.

Thinking the rancho velez area is where it starts to beef up and take off

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The angle of the Cuban coast changes a bit near Irma's current location, so if it continues close to or North of the current heading it should start gaining some latitude away from the Cuban coast in the next several hours.

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4 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

No....154 knots!!! WTF that is insane!  A little too robust strengthening, IMO

That's robust alright.  Are there any past cases where the GFS and EURO pressure drops have verified to any sort of this magnitude?

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Folks those GFS winds are for 850 mb NOT surface level. Surface is going to be substantially lower. And we all know about GFS's recent aggressive deepening bias post upgrade. Doesn't discount nearly unanimous agreement among all models for some intensification prior to the Keys...but worth keeping it in perspective.

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15 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said:

Recon 26 only found 100kt surface winds...that's pretty drastic step down...

Honestly I wouldn't pay too much attention to what recon finds right now... Eye is already starting to warm/clear out on IR. 

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FYI NHC is now doing hourly position updates with the Eye now visible on Key West/Miami radars. 

 

LOCATION...22.9N 79.9 W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE of Varadero Cuba
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SE of Key West, Florida
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

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1 minute ago, Memphis Weather said:

FYI NHC is now doing hourly position updates with the Eye now visible on Key West/Miami radars. 

 

LOCATION...22.9N 79.9 W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE of Varadero Cuba
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SE of Key West, Florida
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

Announcement per their tweet -

 

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1 minute ago, ScottB said:

Guys that 850mb maps. And gfs is likely overdone in terms of strengthening. 

 

2 minutes ago, Memphis Weather said:

Folks those GFS winds are for 850 mb NOT surface level. Surface is going to be substantially lower. And we all know about GFS's recent aggressive deepening bias post upgrade. Doesn't discount nearly unanimous agreement among all models for some intensification prior to the Keys...but worth keeping it in perspective.

Yes....but still impressive.  And I wouldn't say outright that the pressures are that overdone...even 2/3 of a 45mb drop in 12 hours is stout...

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12z GFS "gust" product does have 120-140 mph gusts on the FL peninsula right before landfall over SW FL though.

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Gonna go ahead and repost this

Folks, with Irma coming within 48 hours of a U.S landfall, it's time to tighten the discussion up a bit.  I've been getting numerous complaints about the quality of the previous Irma thread.   So this thread is now in storm mode...for those who aren't familar, this means:

-Mods are instructed to be heavy handed with moderation.  If your posts are disappearing, stop, get it together and make quality posts.  If not, you'll be suspended for the duration of the storm.   There are additional "black ops" mods as well as the green tag mods.  These mods are long time, respected members who are on temporary duty.  

-Absolutely no banter

-Discussion about IRMA only.   Stop discussing Jose or Katia here.  There are threads for this

-Quality, not quantity.  If you aren't sure or don't know, don't post.  There are people who are watching this thread for pertinent, good information.

-Do not come to me to appeal any punitive measure taken against you by mods, I will not read it.  Normal "warn" procedures are suspended...i/e no "three strikes, you're out"....mods can suspend or 5 post you immediately.  

Sorry to be bad cop, but we've got to do better with this stuff.    Thanks for everyone's cooperation.  

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20 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It seems to me that we are witnessing a year year where storms achieve and maintain healthy cores that don't easily get disrupted.  

Systemic low sheer, moist air and high ocean temps will do that. After the cold waters Irma churned up dissipate, no reason other storms can't develop quickly.

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Systemic low sheer, moist air and high ocean temps will do that. After the cold waters Irma churned up dissipate, no reason other storms can't develop quickly.

 

Her core is in tact. Those waters are likewise incredibly warm and even interaction with the Keys will not do much to harm her. Combine that with the potential that she runs up the Western side of Florida, she will likely be a major hurricane until she hits the pan handle region (providing she doesn't cut east into the peninsula).

 

Edit: Replied to the wrong message.

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Irma has now developed a solid, unbroken ring of cloud tops below -70C. Compare that to 12Z when just a few -70C towers were present. This is a strengthening cyclone.

Noon: 

us_sat-en-087-0_2017_09_09_15_55_9236_351.thumb.png.e96d6e7c65c8fcd0125602b7c63d7846.png

8 AM:

us_sat-en-087-0_2017_09_09_11_55_9236_351.thumb.png.ca42b6a32d52006b6a56a50eace79d7c.png

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CDO has expanded and cooled pretty quickly as the eye starts moving offshore -- a bit early with this more northwesterly short-term motion. 2-3 hours of this will get it enough space to get fluxes back up for more significant strengthening.

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51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I actually think the core looks incredibly healthy considering the amount of land interaction. If it still looks anything like this as it emerges into the FL strait it has a good chance to intensify rapidly. Storms have entered that region in much worse shake and exploded. Yes shear increases later tomorrow but there is at least a 12-18 hour window before that. There is no guarantee. Sometimes storms have trouble getting organized. It might not intensify. But I wouldn't bet against it and some of the posts implying irma has been shredded or severely crippled and is unlikely to intensify are irresponsible and send the wrong message. 

This!! I have been on this weather site for quite a long time now relatively speaking. People like PSU and other experts know what they're talking about not because of wanting to be right or "thump your chest" pride.  Strengthening is certainly possible if not probable.  And I say with great passion that people who are calling "bust" to stop -now! Lives are at stake.  

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Given both the current state of Irma's core (now regenerating) and her history (resilience), there's no reason to forecast anything less than a high end cat 4 or 5 land falling near, most likely just south of, Sarasota. Anyone riding Irma out in the keys east of Islamorada should either prepare for life threatening conditions imminently developing or move east as far as possible NOW. Folks remaining from Islamorada west to Key West need to place themselves in the sturdiest, reinforced structure available at the highest point above the waterline...remember most recent construction can survive the wind (though obviously with some damage), the surge is what will kill you.

 

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