adiabatic13

Responded with the same in the NYC subforum yesterday afternoon in response to PB's MJO reliance; i.e. though more broadly, in that the way the atmos. has responded historically may not be the way the atmos. responds now that its background radiation has increased, there's recent evidence to postulate that loss of albedo and ocean warming in tha arctic has now hit a threshold where "spillover heat" is available to rapidly muck up the northern hemisphere's winter, this has been evident all cold season across much of Scandinavia, Siberia and East Asia and to a lesser degree across N America, but the mod over there deleted, probably because my frustration was on display...this is however exactly why the rest of the world's climate scientists are systematically disengaging from their colleagues in the good ole USA, nearly impossible to have a rational scientific discussion in this environment where the fundamental laws of thermodynamics are now considered just one "opinion"

Some of us do notice actually, almost posted yesterday about the ridiculosity of the 48 hr, 850 mb projection for the N Atlantic...every feature shifted north of where it "should" be by about 1200 miles.

Education, education, education, not the kind that teaches you facts and hard skills, but the kind that teaches you how to think, reason and look deeply, that's the only hope for our species. Until proven otherwise I will assume that intelligent life arises quite often in our universe, it seems designed for life (in so many particulars: i.e. gravity, the specific properties of H2O, oxidation-reduction, etc...not sure if these imply a sense of agency there); at any rate, most if not all self-aware species I'm guessing "progress" to precisely the point where humankind presently sits and because technological evolution inherently outpaces biological evolution for multi-cellular critters, they, in essence, commit species-wide suicide.

this, especially considering I was still burning it in mid-June...while the rest of the planet roasts, 40N 70W is the new Iceland (even under record breaking ridges, what junk)

cause we're all members of a vast left-wing commie conspiracy to take away your cookies, but you already knew that from the intraweb

That 3K MAM model is the best! How much milk is it showing for my morning coffee? Seriously though, this board will become less and less readable as GCC takes away more and more of our winter. That’s a prediction you can count on.

Oh, without a doubt, weather fanatics are a harmless bunch, even to themselves (with the exception of the odd storm chaser)

I'd actually like to conduct a study re "substance abusers" and "weather watchers," extreme atmospheric events do seem to relieve emotional pain for a portion of the population in the same way that certain substances fill the spiritual void many in the postmodern west are experiencing, the behavior profiles are eerily identical, pretty cool stuff I lurk here often, but post seldom, as I recognize in myself the above mentioned trigger/feedback loop

The red on that map doesn't mean you need rain, it is not a drought map, there is no drought anywhere within 1000 miles of East Brunswick

I rely on autumn to provide me with some decent dry, warmish hiking weather...this year has been the most unusable of any of the last 40 that I have lived here. Almost enough to get me seriously thinking of relocating. The outdoors keeps me sane, if this is the new normal then I'll soon be running in circles yelling and waving my arms over my head.

Flo has managed to stall about 40 miles east of shelf waters...lucky girl. Her unwinding is likely delayed until she exits the Gulf Stream.

Your map actually shows it gaining latitude; for Flo to not be gaining latitude, extrap would have to be parallel to the lines of latitude on that map.

Tonight's burst of deep convection should rebuild a solid eyewall one last time prior to shelf water disrupting Flo's heat engine; I'm going out on a limb and will forecast Cat 4 for a few dropsondes tomorrow morning...and the unmodeled moderate shear appears to be relaxing as well.

Yes, that shed was incredibly tough; the manufacturer should market them as storm shelters.

910.9 extrap for Irma I believe (don't quote me though)

I realize this is a hobbyist site, but at critical emergency management planning times such as we're in this afternoon with regard to Maria, it might be helpful to have a pro forecast thread. There are a lot of guesses being posted here with authority that new eyes in the VI and PR might not understand are derived solely from "weenie" hopes and dreams. I even saw someone state that Maria would be landfalling as 130 mph storm; while that's not outside the realm of possibility there's no meteorological evidence for that forecast at this time. Incidentally, ERC seems a hip term around here, so understand that until we see a weakening trend with Maria's strong inner ring of convection an ERC is NOT imminent. Edit: I didn't mean for that to sound overly critical, but as a weather event, Maria's forecast is unique in that it's people's actions over the next several hours that will determine whether they live or die tonight. I'd hate for someone in PR to start spreading the word in his local community that the media is overly hyping Maria as he just read on AmericanWeather that the storm will weaken a lot before the morning.

A little contraction of the eyewall beginning, along with cooling cloud tops...looks like we have an intensifying system again this afternoon. Hoping for a dual wind max in the upcoming reconn package. edit: once again a very unusual ERC-less Atl storm, though what would have transpired last night had Dominica not been in her way can be speculated upon

There have been no verified photos of the damage on Dominica that we're aware of yet (and we're monitoring), we're expecting some helicopter footage to come in this evening, but expect total destruction, outside of some pockets of protected geographic nooks.

For St. Croix, Vieques, Culebra and San Juan, Maria's projected track is the worst Cat 5 track conceivable; simply put, it has not occurred before in the modern era, impacts on San Juan itself would be catastrophic if it plays out as NHC is projecting (all of those locations experience the NE semicircle of the core, with San Juan and Culebra never feeling the slight reprieve of the eye itself). edit: Many photos and videos being posted here are not of Dominica, not sure why anyone would be trying to mislead on that, can't see how that is to anyone's benefit.

Except that Maria made landfall during the night, unless Dominica has a special midnight sun

I'll go for 150kt min at reconn, they don't look much better than this and it's a tight core

NHC intensity estimate is much too low, Dominica will experience damage on par with Irma in BVI, hope Dominica's much larger population is aware that the strongest hurricane in the island's history is on her doorstep...just look at the trapeziodal eye, very very impressive