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  1. The red on that map doesn't mean you need rain, it is not a drought map, there is no drought anywhere within 1000 miles of East Brunswick
  2. adiabatic13

    Major Hurricane Michael

    a lot, no offshore flow along Gulf Coast yet this fall has meant no upwelling of cooler water, and of course SSTs much above normal everywhere
  3. adiabatic13

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Yeah this thing is the exact opposite of an annular hurricane, must be a lot of vomiting on those recon flights
  4. adiabatic13

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Thank god for that mid level shear actually, otherwise this would be a truly awesome storm, still may be eventually.
  5. I rely on autumn to provide me with some decent dry, warmish hiking weather...this year has been the most unusable of any of the last 40 that I have lived here. Almost enough to get me seriously thinking of relocating. The outdoors keeps me sane, if this is the new normal then I'll soon be running in circles yelling and waving my arms over my head.
  6. adiabatic13

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Well, I would think they HAVE to evacuate Perdido Key on account of its name.
  7. adiabatic13

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    Flo has managed to stall about 40 miles east of shelf waters...lucky girl. Her unwinding is likely delayed until she exits the Gulf Stream.
  8. adiabatic13

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    Your map actually shows it gaining latitude; for Flo to not be gaining latitude, extrap would have to be parallel to the lines of latitude on that map.
  9. adiabatic13

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    Tonight's burst of deep convection should rebuild a solid eyewall one last time prior to shelf water disrupting Flo's heat engine; I'm going out on a limb and will forecast Cat 4 for a few dropsondes tomorrow morning...and the unmodeled moderate shear appears to be relaxing as well.
  10. adiabatic13

    Hurricane Florence

    Yes, that shed was incredibly tough; the manufacturer should market them as storm shelters.
  11. adiabatic13

    Major Hurricane Florence

    no obvious reason other than that environmental conditions have to be oh so perfect for an ATL storm to go above 155mph sustained; that said, Florence looks as good a candidate as I've seen from a historical perspective in that part of the basin
  12. adiabatic13

    Major Hurricane Florence

    No it doesn’t work that way, not if the invest is situated so as to depress heights in a small window to the N of her track
  13. adiabatic13

    Major Hurricane Florence

    Very low shear environment from here forward, 28-9 sea surface and optimal forward propagation suggest RI probability of 50% overnight, increasing to 60% and then 70% tomorrow and tomorrow night, respectively edit: incidentally, if you're rooting for an out-to-sea track to verify then root for that convective feature near Bermuda to develop into a legit depression
  14. adiabatic13

    Major Hurricane Florence

    hmmmm, I think I'd follow the NHC discussion wrt intensity rather than a random weenie's satellite hallucinations, unless said weenie has a secret private satellite that NHC cannot access
  15. adiabatic13

    Hurricane Maria

    910.9 extrap for Irma I believe (don't quote me though)