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adiabatic13

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    OKX
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    Manhattan

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  1. adiabatic13

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    Flo has managed to stall about 40 miles east of shelf waters...lucky girl. Her unwinding is likely delayed until she exits the Gulf Stream.
  2. adiabatic13

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    Your map actually shows it gaining latitude; for Flo to not be gaining latitude, extrap would have to be parallel to the lines of latitude on that map.
  3. adiabatic13

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    Tonight's burst of deep convection should rebuild a solid eyewall one last time prior to shelf water disrupting Flo's heat engine; I'm going out on a limb and will forecast Cat 4 for a few dropsondes tomorrow morning...and the unmodeled moderate shear appears to be relaxing as well.
  4. adiabatic13

    Hurricane Florence

    Yes, that shed was incredibly tough; the manufacturer should market them as storm shelters.
  5. adiabatic13

    Major Hurricane Florence

    no obvious reason other than that environmental conditions have to be oh so perfect for an ATL storm to go above 155mph sustained; that said, Florence looks as good a candidate as I've seen from a historical perspective in that part of the basin
  6. adiabatic13

    Major Hurricane Florence

    No it doesn’t work that way, not if the invest is situated so as to depress heights in a small window to the N of her track
  7. adiabatic13

    Major Hurricane Florence

    Very low shear environment from here forward, 28-9 sea surface and optimal forward propagation suggest RI probability of 50% overnight, increasing to 60% and then 70% tomorrow and tomorrow night, respectively edit: incidentally, if you're rooting for an out-to-sea track to verify then root for that convective feature near Bermuda to develop into a legit depression
  8. adiabatic13

    Major Hurricane Florence

    hmmmm, I think I'd follow the NHC discussion wrt intensity rather than a random weenie's satellite hallucinations, unless said weenie has a secret private satellite that NHC cannot access
  9. adiabatic13

    Hurricane Maria

    910.9 extrap for Irma I believe (don't quote me though)
  10. adiabatic13

    Hurricane Maria

    I realize this is a hobbyist site, but at critical emergency management planning times such as we're in this afternoon with regard to Maria, it might be helpful to have a pro forecast thread. There are a lot of guesses being posted here with authority that new eyes in the VI and PR might not understand are derived solely from "weenie" hopes and dreams. I even saw someone state that Maria would be landfalling as 130 mph storm; while that's not outside the realm of possibility there's no meteorological evidence for that forecast at this time. Incidentally, ERC seems a hip term around here, so understand that until we see a weakening trend with Maria's strong inner ring of convection an ERC is NOT imminent. Edit: I didn't mean for that to sound overly critical, but as a weather event, Maria's forecast is unique in that it's people's actions over the next several hours that will determine whether they live or die tonight. I'd hate for someone in PR to start spreading the word in his local community that the media is overly hyping Maria as he just read on AmericanWeather that the storm will weaken a lot before the morning.
  11. adiabatic13

    Hurricane Maria

    A little contraction of the eyewall beginning, along with cooling cloud tops...looks like we have an intensifying system again this afternoon. Hoping for a dual wind max in the upcoming reconn package. edit: once again a very unusual ERC-less Atl storm, though what would have transpired last night had Dominica not been in her way can be speculated upon
  12. adiabatic13

    Hurricane Maria

    There have been no verified photos of the damage on Dominica that we're aware of yet (and we're monitoring), we're expecting some helicopter footage to come in this evening, but expect total destruction, outside of some pockets of protected geographic nooks.
  13. adiabatic13

    Hurricane Maria

    For St. Croix, Vieques, Culebra and San Juan, Maria's projected track is the worst Cat 5 track conceivable; simply put, it has not occurred before in the modern era, impacts on San Juan itself would be catastrophic if it plays out as NHC is projecting (all of those locations experience the NE semicircle of the core, with San Juan and Culebra never feeling the slight reprieve of the eye itself). edit: Many photos and videos being posted here are not of Dominica, not sure why anyone would be trying to mislead on that, can't see how that is to anyone's benefit.
  14. adiabatic13

    Hurricane Maria

    Except that Maria made landfall during the night, unless Dominica has a special midnight sun
  15. adiabatic13

    Hurricane Maria

    I'll go for 150kt min at reconn, they don't look much better than this and it's a tight core
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