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Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE


stormtracker

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8 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

Theoretical max was 26ft for downtown in the Project Phoenix scenario. This was for a 160mph cat 5 on a NNE approach. I've also seen low 30s modeled in county documents for the area around Tampa General on Davis Island.

http://www.tbrpc.org/tampabaycatplan/pdf/Project_Phoenix_Scenario_Info.pdf

 

Ouch. That would simply destroy the entire area.  Thanks for sharing 

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4 minutes ago, andyhb said:

That's after it moves back into the Florida Strait, both the weakening estimates and the intensifying thereafter are possibly underestimates in terms of overall magnitude.

Just checked and EUro has Irma at 951mb leaving the Cuba coast and dropping back to 927mb before landfall in Naples. Although Euro started too high those numbers might end up verifying.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/cuba/sea-level-pressure/20170910-0300z.html

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/florida/sea-level-pressure/20170910-2100z.html

 

 

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I suppose NHC had to upgrade it based on the data, but some others posted, including a met, the interaction with Cuba should make that upgrade short-lived, no?



We could just wait and see what happens instead of trying to guess. Whether it's a 155mph Cat 4 or a 160mph Cat 5, it doesn't matter. Gonna be bad either way.
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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The eye will probably cross into Cuba and weaken, maybe down to a Cat 3, but the core should be intact enough for it to take advantage of very warm water near the Keys. It won't be over Cuba too long and it is crossing into a relatively flat part of the island. 

I think the weakening will be minimal. The IE replaced by OE is currently yielding a stronger storm, and I am also waiting to see whether the frictional deceleration of the SW quadrant aids in precluding a full landfall. Parallel running cyclones tend to feature this effect of asymmetrical wind field due to frictional torque, precluding landfall and often engendering the "dance" we often see around landmasses. I like the NHC's track right now, and think the weakening will be down to only a 4, as the eye skims the coast. 

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This is from NHC, but isn't an official advisory. It's used to initialize the 0Z hurricane-specific models. Because this exists doesn't mean that NHC re-upgrades to Cat 5 this evening, but makes it plausible they do:

 

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2017/al112017/

At 0000 UTC, 09 September 2017, MAJOR HURRICANE IRMA (AL11) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 22.1°N and 77.2°W. The current intensity was 140 kt and the center was moving at 12 kt at a bearing of 280 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 924 mb.

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34 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Asking for family in PuntaGorda/Charlotte Harbor are of Ft Myers... I'm getting worried about surge for them. They are on canals. Anyone have any estimates on surge heights in that area that I can pass on to get them prepared. Sorry for the sort of frowned upon IMBY post but I thought here would be my best chance for solid info 

There is an evacuation thread. Questions can be answered there

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1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said:

In the atlantic, have we ever had 2 CAT 5 Hurricanes at the same time?

I don't know but I don't think we'll see that here.  Irma is going to start showing signs of interacting with Cuba and Jose is going through cooler waters in the wake of Irma.  I suspect Jose will weaken as well.

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1 minute ago, Isotherm said:

I think the weakening will be minimal. The IE replaced by OE is currently yielding a stronger storm, and I am also waiting to see whether the frictional deceleration of the SW quadrant aids in precluding a full landfall. Parallel running cyclones tend to feature this effect of asymmetrical wind field due to frictional torque, precluding landfall and often engendering the "dance" we often see around landmasses. I like the NHC's track right now, and think the weakening will be down to only a 4, as the eye skims the coast. 

i agree. i also think that effect will tug it further west and possibly threaten a larger portion of the west coast of florida 

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10 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said:

I don't know but I don't think we'll see that here.  Irma is going to start showing signs of interacting with Cuba and Jose is going through cooler waters in the wake of Irma.  I suspect Jose will weaken as well.

Jose shows no signs of weakening and the 26+˚C isotherm is very deep in that area. Dry air would be the wild card for weakening it currently. Irma, while a monster, was moving fairly quickly through there.

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