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About swataz

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Straddling the Smithtown/Hauppauge Border
  1. December 30th 2017 Clipper

    Which model(s)?
  2. December Model Discussion

    Warministas. Love it. Yes, there is a certain danger to model hugging, especially with this one. I was surprised (shouldn't have been) about the waffling this close to the event.
  3. The Canadian has a pretty close call for Christmas Day around here, albeit rain as the primary form of precipitation. How reliable is that model lately?
  4. Interesting that the last GFS run has the frontal passage on the EC doorstep by Christmas. Are we looking at crashing temps late on Christmas Day?
  5. Some of the responses by folks in here make me literally scared to ask about things, like the fact I see two major models showing a somewhat zonal flow after this cold shot when everyone was honking about cold locking in until all eternity as late as last week...
  6. December 9th 2017 Crusha Obs

    Upton was bullish even after the six hour delay in the start of things. Now that the banding has set up unfavorably, either they see something we don’t, or they aren’t willing to give up the ghost.
  7. December 9th 2017 Crusha Obs

    It appears that Long Island on the whole is underperforming in terms of snowfall. Am I misreading things?
  8. December 9th 2017 Crusha or brusha?

    I don't blame them, the jet dynamics/ vorticity with this storm are rather strong. True, and even the NAM lollipops that area. MY area! And contrary to many people’s desires, I am not happy about it! Lol
  9. December 9th 2017 Crusha or brusha?

    Reading the most recent discussion from Upton, it seems they are sticking to their guns and calling for a lollipop of 6-8 on northeastern LI with a slight caveat it may bust lower or even higher by 1-2”.
  10. OK. Perhaps I wasn't clear. I just noticed that the run I was looking at showed the storm was too close to the coast for any snow here at all. If the later run shows it well offshore then, well, the coast loses out on any snow chance either way.
  11. Perhaps I was looking at an older run. Either way it would seem that the GFS is not in line with other models and ensembles.
  12. So, from what I can see in the long range, the GFS has a low inside the BM right around Thanksgiving with a surge of cold air afterward. Would this be considered an outlier at this point?
  13. I have pulled no punches with the folks who ask me about this storm. It could get very ugly here tomorrow night and I think at the very least folks should prepare.
  14. Tropical Storm Jose

    Um, I tend to doubt that advisory language!
  15. Tropical Storm Jose

    Correct me if I am wrong, but by the time this thing loops up at this latitude, it will extra-tropical, yes?