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Major Hurricane Irma

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Geez, this run is an absolute disaster for FL. Traverses most of the state on it's track. 

It never leaves land. At 168 it's in SE Georgia...

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1 minute ago, Wow said:

Good thing here is it stays on land the entire ride.. no re-emergence/

Eh, lack of emergence worse for more of Florida though.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

GFS has a bias to over deepen tropical cyclones since it's "upgrade"  don't take the intensity verbatim.  Shifts in track and upper air features are the key factors to watch right now.  

Honestly you can hedge what the GFS is outputing by following the euro for the same hrs as it essentially has the same track into South Fla. Euro is 930's into southern Fla so we're looking a cat 5 either way at this point. 

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Guys are there any known biases on the 18z gfs as we know there to be sometimes when tracking winter storms or no? Whereas we sometimes discard it?

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2 minutes ago, Wow said:

Good thing here is it stays on land the entire ride.. no re-emergence/

Is there anything that could create changes in the steering, the trough and ridge, that could suggest a further west track than this?

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3 minutes ago, Stebo said:

The one thing I have noticed on all of the models as it approaches Florida, pressure values ignored, the pressure tendency is for it to be strengthening at landfall like Harvey did going into Texas. Right now there is a consensus if you have no major land interaction with Cuba or last minute ERC, that you will have a very strong storm strengthening upon landfall.

Makes perfect sense given the upper level pattern and the warm SSTs associated with the gulf stream. I'd hedge if it ends up in that spot with half decent core structure, it'll strengthen(possibly significantly). Environment there is near perfect, only hindrance being some minor southwesterly shear, which would be hindered some once the storm turns northward.

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2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Guys are there any known biases on the 18z gfs as we know there to be sometimes when tracking winter storms or no? Whereas we sometimes discard it?

The 6Z and 18Z used to be notorious for being off, but iirc those issues got dealt with years ago

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Something to keep in mind -- the Florida peninsula is about 150 miles wide -- that's much narrower than the margin of error of this storm as it makes the turn. This could easily pass just east (more likely, it would appear) or west of the peninsula and be a beast as it hits Ga/SC/NC or the panhandle. 

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11 minutes ago, Wow said:

Still heading NNW toward the S Apps

I'm assuming there would be massive flooding there. I live in Greenville, SC. Could be catastrophic here too due to lift increasing qpf amounts.

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Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

The 6Z and 18Z used to be notorious for being off, but iirc those issues got dealt with years ago

I talked to someone involved in the prceipitation scheme of the model and he said that Issue was solved. They are much closer to normal now.

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2 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Being born in Hollywood, raised in Ft Lauderdale till 16, having family, friends, & other interests down there. I can only look at that image with stunned silence. Gotta keep telling myself it's a week out because even with pressure bias that's devastation from Homestead on up!

I have friends all along the i-95 side of Florida. The ones from the Space Coast to Jacksonville were there for last year's storm, so they have a better idea where to go. But one friend from HS recently moved to the PBI area in the last couple of months, working for Burns and McConnell. And I know he doesn't know where the major evac routes will be if these runs come close to reality (higher central pressure of course, but geographic path). I'm hoping he and his wife will know to get out of there in time.

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Tonight's 0Z run is going to be intersting with the baloon & G-IV data collected incorporated into it. To see if there will be any changes to model ouptut.

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1 minute ago, Wow said:

Still heading NNW toward the S Apps

Big differences in euro/gfs UL pattern emerge after Irma passes southern Fla. definitely low confidence in track beyond that point. The GEFS mean and EPS mean clearly have a turn towards the north/NNE after LF, but the mean LF position is further west, so it remains largely over land. If the GFS and Euro are correct with its pass over/near Miami I expect she will come back over open water.

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I mean it's kind of ridiculous to feel like an unprecedented event just occurred and it's merely the last 12 hrs of global model simulations. But I've definitely had my fill; the two main globals can go ahead and start resolving different track solutions and we can put these away for all time weenie runs. Thank goodness Irma is still a good six days away. Ready for a flip soon.

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5 minutes ago, ncskywarn said:

Tonight's 0Z run is going to be intersting with the baloon & G-IV data collected incorporated into it. To see if there will be any changes to model ouptut.

Definitely...to see if westward trend continues or not.  And am really getting concerned regarding Fla. evacuations if this thing goes north up the spine.  Where would people go?  To the panhandle or Mobile area?  As well as upslope rains as moisture hits the mountains I certainly hope the 18z run does not come to fruition.

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So many issues down there with evacuation, can't go S, can't go E, only option W crosses the alley, & N you have the Turnpike, 95, smaller US1, even smaller A1A. Dade, Broward, & Palm Beach county populations are around 6 million. It's a logistics nightmare!

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I have friends all along the i-95 side of Florida. The ones from the Space Coast to Jacksonville were there for last year's storm, so they have a better idea where to go. But one friend from HS recently moved to the PBI area in the last couple of months, working for Burns and McConnell. And I know he doesn't know where the major evac routes will be if these runs come close to reality (higher central pressure of course, but geographic path). I'm hoping he and his wife will know to get out of there in time.



Meanwhile, my friend in WPB is talking about evacuating his family to ... my state, NC. This is a tough one to plan for.

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I was chatting with someone in Miami about the need to evacuate if the need arises. I sent him the miami-dade zone map http://gisweb.miamidade.gov/communityservices/?ShowWhat=OEM for him to put in his address. He told me it came back green (with no explanation on what green meant) and he thought he was safe. I don't know why they would use green for disaster planning. Green means okay. Anyway, the zones are as follows for anyone in Miami-Dade county. I wouldn't have known without looking it up and he thought he was cool no matter what. 

Quote

The description of Storm Surge Planning Zones is as follows:

Zone A is at greatest risk for storm surge for Category 1 and higher storms.
Zone B is at greatest risk for storm surge for Category 2 and higher storms.
Zone C is at greatest risk for storm surge for Category 3 and higher storms.
Zone D is at greatest risk for storm surge for Category 4 and higher storms.
Zone E is at greatest risk for storm surge from Category 5 storms.

The Storm Surge Planning Zones are used to identify risk of storm surge and is based on all directions of storms. As a storm is approaching, Miami-Dade County Emergency Management will identify which areas should evacuate for that particular storm. Evacuation Zones will be all of or a portion of the Storm Surge Planning Zones. Residents should monitor the media and listen for which areas are being told to evacuate.

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

That is a great site. Are they thinking of adding ECMWF 500 mb height anomalies to the line up?

I have designed and implemented a similar type of site (though not online at present). I wonder if this one can eventually do a few things:

1) Produce animations, by having a number of frames selector.

2) Select model initial times (this could allow construction of dprog/dt's either manually or automatically)

3) Plot a montage showing multiple models side by side in a matrix

Excellent site even as is though, especially with the Euro data being available.

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23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

GFS has a bias to over deepen tropical cyclones since it's "upgrade"  don't take the intensity verbatim.  Shifts in track and upper air features are the key factors to watch right now.  

Given that we are already at ~940mb, or near it at least, <910 seems more than possible if land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba isn't overly deleterious to the system... especially by the time it's been over those "jet fuel" waters in and near the Bahamas for 24+ hours. 

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The GFS has done a complete 360 with Irma's position and the pattern still remains unresolved. Seems to be having more and more interaction with decaying energy from a SW in the plains. 0z will be interesting!

gfs_z500_vort_atl_fh132_trend.gif

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In case people are wondering, a turn up the spine of Florida as modeled on the 18z GFS would not be without precedent, though obviously not easy to get it to play out just like that.  Hurricane King in 1950 offers an example, and some other hurricanes have almost traveled the length of Florida.  

track.gif.494abf6a037fe2e6c17851d6cc799700.gif

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