ncforecaster89 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 23 minutes ago, Sportybx said: Isn't it just going to get stronger and stronger the more it moves into the warmer water . Wouldn't be surprised if it opened up a bit and grew in size Typically, a hurricane increases in size following an ERC, and/or as it gains latitude towards the subtropics. In this case, both variables should apply Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 This pic is from the Navarre Wal Mart in the Western FL Panhandle. I can only imagine what things are like in SFL!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Looks like track was adjusted north slightly on the 03Z advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Irma looks amazing on IR loop. It finally repaired the NE flank which was feeling some restriction from the ridge. It might completely bomb out tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: Looks very Andrew-like. Compact buzzsaw blade with large CDO and relatively minimal banding; although probably somewhat larger than Andrew was already and forecast to get larger. Forecast destination is, ominously, growing more similar by the model run, although the angle of approach will be different and obviously still a lot of time for change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 The new advisory has W @ 270 degrees, so now the question is when latitude gain starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 24 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said: They didn't, as is specified in the NHC forecast discussion at 5 pm EDT: Six hourly upper-air soundings began at 1800 UTC today over the central United States to better sample the upstream mid-latitude trough. In addition, the NOAA G-IV aircraft is currently sampling the environment around Irma, and these data will be included in tonight's 0000 UTC model runs. Any observations taken between 1500 and 2059 and having arrived to the center before 2045 will have been assimilated into the 1800 utc gfs. You are misunderstanding their point in that the giv data will start arriving for the 00 utc cycle. Anything taken between 2100 and 0259 will be used to initialize the 00 utc gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Irma looks amazing on IR loop. It finally repaired the NE flank which was feeling some restriction from the ridge. It might completely bomb out tonight. Was getting ready to post this verbatim. Wouldn't be surprised to see Cat 5 by morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 RECON JUST FOUND 126 knot surface winds unflagged. Or 145 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 SFMR up to 126kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 50 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: With the blanket of warming that has happened all over the globe in the last 20 years, I think we can upgrade all climo stats to lower pressureskew these days. Maybe a whole category. In other words, Cat 3 = Cat 4, etc. Plus this is one the best looking hurricanes in the beginning stages maybe ever. Perhaps, all other variables being held constant. I haven't seen literature where this issue is examined in great detail. Research is probably ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan63 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Turks and Caicos island are going to be in trouble. Might get in the strongest part of the storm on projected track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 GFS a nudge S @ 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silver Meteor Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 hours ago, ncforecaster89 said: Actually, it's officially another 20 knots needed to attain category-five intensity (140 knots/157 mph). Have you ever seen an advisory state a hurricane's wind velocity in anything other than 5mph increments? And if so, when? I ask only because I've been a weather geek longer than you've been alive and don't ever recall it being done. Not saying it's never happened, only that I have no recollection of it ever being done. I bring this up because the knot to mph conversion does not often fit that 5mph-stepped advisory convenience. If a hurricane was measured at precisely 140kts, would the public advisory round that off, not to the nearest 5mph step of 155 but upward to the 5mph step of 160 that meets Cat 5 criteria? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 WNW movement between 24 and 36... going to be super close for PR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: WNW movement between 24 and 36... going to be super close for PR at 48 it is north of PR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Still a nudge S @ 48 but 9 mb deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 48 is north of PR... southern side of Irma gets PR straight on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, Hazey said: Turks and Caicos island are going to be in trouble. Might get in the strongest part of the storm on projected track. The northern islands are less than 36 hours away from the brunt and should be of immediate concern if it doesn't gain some latitude tomorrow and even then it's going to be really close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Going to miss DR/Haiti just to the north at 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, yoda said: 48 is north of PR... southern side of Irma gets PR straight on Western side of circulation provides strong onshore flow with upslope over the NW Cordillera. Would be some crazy orographic lift and flooding rains for areas over the Northern coast of the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 The northern islands are less than 36 hours away from the brunt and should be of immediate concern if it doesn't gain some latitude tomorrow and even then it's going to be really close.Yup and they are running out of time. Not going to go well for them I'm afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 pretty much identical to 18z at 72hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Looks to be running on the left of center of the ens spread. Will be interesting to see if it keeps moving that way over the next two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: pretty much identical to 18z at 72hr Looks about 50mi south of 18z by hr 81, WAR looks a tad stronger this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Touch further south and bit stronger by hour 78. WAR is ever so slightly stronger, but no major differences so far. Edit: Ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Hr 96 looks like she may be wanting to pay a little visit to Cuba. edit: hr 105 she looks to go just north of Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 The eyewall convection cloud tops are really getting cold now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 hr 102 Irma scraping Cuba, future Jose also trending south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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