Jackstraw Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 140 mph SFMR in the traditionally weak quadrant on the left flank. Just bad news to more bad news for the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 mb drop since the last recon pass 90 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 12 minutes ago, sirkan said: You're absolutely correct. Apologies for the error. While there will be on-shore flow for both regions, they won't occur at the same time. I got a tad ahead of myself and forgot my counter-clockwise direction for some strange reason. So much for good first impressions. :-/ No biggie, it's cool that we get real time access to all this data. Could certainly be a different story for TPA and other Gulf cities if the modeled track continues to shift West and verifies. I have family in Herndon, and would much rather be up there right now. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Last center dropsonde measured 940mb at the surface with a 14kt south wind.. likely down to 938-939mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 GEFS ensembles worst case scenario for Tampa Bay region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Raw T# to 7.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, TPAwx said: GEFS ensembles worst case scenario for Tampa Bay region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, Hoosier said: ...and the westward trend continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Raw T# to 7.0Cat 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, USCG RS said: 3 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said: Raw T# to 7.0 Cat 5 To be fair, Final T# is 6.7, but, still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 To be fair, Final T# is 6.7, but, still. So they'll say 155mph vs 160 and therefore it will be a maxed 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 It's jaw dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 So they'll say 155mph vs 160 and therefore it will be a maxed 4But, with a ds showing a pressure of around 938, they may potentially say 130kts/150mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, USCG RS said: 3 minutes ago, USCG RS said: So they'll say 155mph vs 160 and therefore it will be a maxed 4 But, with a ds showing a pressure of around 938, they may potentially say 130kts/150mph I think this is where they will stay, supported by recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 I've spent the past 6 days putting in 72 hours at an evacuee shelter here in Killeen, TX. Red Cross and FEMA are stretched so thin, and you can tell they are at a very high stress level. I cannot even imagine stretching them even more thin than they are at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: 4 minutes ago, USCG RS said: So they'll say 155mph vs 160 and therefore it will be a maxed 4 But, with a ds showing a pressure of around 938, they may potentially say 130kts/150mph Official forecast had it being around 150mph by this time as well... Not certain, but this (whatever she reaches tonight and into tomorrow) may be the max wind of Irma during her lifetime given all the unknowns ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 I think this is where they will stay, supported by recon. I agree, but she is gaining strength still.. Let's see where she winds up by 0500. She may be cat 5 at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, jojo762 said: Official forecast had it being around 150mph by this time as well... Not certain, but this (whatever she reaches tonight and into tomorrow) may be the max wind of Irma during her lifetime given all the unknowns ahead. I'm in the same camp of thought -- this is her chance to show off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The regional planning exercise had a cat 5/160, assume the above would be a 4 or maybe strong 3? Downtown Tampa is 25 feet under water in the simulation. http://www.tbrpc.org/tampabaycatplan/pdf/Project_Phoenix_Scenario_Info.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 I've spent the past 6 days putting in 72 hours at an evacuee shelter here in Killeen, TX. Red Cross and FEMA are stretched so thin, and you can tell they are at a very high stress level. I cannot even imagine stretching them even more thin than they are at. Red cross? Yeah, I am talking with OEM offices up here and they were not happy when we were the bullseye. Some of my colleagues from the air national guard and USCG have been/were pulling rescues with Harvey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, USCG RS said: 5 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said: I've spent the past 6 days putting in 72 hours at an evacuee shelter here in Killeen, TX. Red Cross and FEMA are stretched so thin, and you can tell they are at a very high stress level. I cannot even imagine stretching them even more thin than they are at. Red cross? Yeah, I am talking with OEM offices up here and they were not happy when we were the bullseye. Some of my colleagues from the air national guard and USCG have been/were pulling rescues with Harvey They had me get certified while I was there so that I could be included in their conversations. The shelter started out with 1 Red Cross employee and 70 volunteers. As of yesterday it's 40 Red Cross, and they kept 10 volunteers. From what I have been involved in, they are deeply concerned with their resources and trying to understand how they're going to be able to provide for everyone. They're definitely operating under immense pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 They had me get certified while I was there so that I could be included in their conversations. The shelter started out with 1 Red Cross employee and 70 volunteers. As of yesterday it's 40 Red Cross, and they kept 10 volunteers. From what I have been involved in, they are deeply concerned with their resources and trying to understand how they're going to be able to provide for everyone. They're definitely operating under immense pressure. Things have switched from rescues to recovery. Part of the issue is that major pieces of infrastructure are down, and will not be returning anytime soon (ie electricity, running water, etc) Likewise water will not be receeding from same areas for months. Then; Irma. She is going to be catastrophic no matter where she makes LF, barring an act of God. OEM offices are already stressed as we have loaned many personell and resources, and more will be needed. The federal government has problems to begin with as leadership (I mean all of it, not politicizing it towards either side) is severely lacking and resources are already stretched so thin. Then, there's a good chance of something behind Irma. Emergency responders are tired, low on resources and running on fumes; a very poor place to be staring down the barrel of another catastrophe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: 8 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said: They had me get certified while I was there so that I could be included in their conversations. The shelter started out with 1 Red Cross employee and 70 volunteers. As of yesterday it's 40 Red Cross, and they kept 10 volunteers. From what I have been involved in, they are deeply concerned with their resources and trying to understand how they're going to be able to provide for everyone. They're definitely operating under immense pressure. Things have switched from rescues to recovery. Part of the issue is that major pieces of infrastructure are down, and will not be returning anytime soon (ie electricity, running water, etc) Likewise water will not be receeding from same areas for months. Then; Irma. She is going to be catastrophic no matter where she makes LF, barring an act of God. OEM offices are already stressed as we have loaned many personell and resources, and more will be needed. The federal government has problems to begin with as leadership (I mean all of it, not politicizing it towards either side) is severely lacking and resources are already stretched so thin. Then, there's a good chance of something behind Irma. Emergency responders are tired, low on resources and running on fumes; a very poor place to be staring down the barrel of another catastrophe. And we're just reaching peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 The regional planning exercise had a cat 5/160, assume the above would be a 4 or maybe strong 3? Downtown Tampa is 25 feet under water in the simulation.http://www.tbrpc.org/tampabaycatplan/pdf/Project_Phoenix_Scenario_Info.pdfI'd say a four, unless it pulled a Charlie redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Goes 16 is great. I think we'll have a classic doughnut appearance coming soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 0200.. 145mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Euro looks same through 48, but stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Euro through 96 is the exact same, but maybe a touch faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 landfall Cuba @120 probably happened around hour 100 as it's moving due west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 96-120 is basically over Cuba... got to think Irma is getting shredded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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