hooralph Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 We have been to Saint Barths 10 + times (last time was last April). I know the island like the back of my hand and I am trying to wrap my head around that tiny island taking a direct Cat 5 hit. The island has a strong spirit, but it will never been the same. Current forecast, fwiw, has the eye passing just to the north, which will arguably be worse than taking a NW quadrant hit. Gustavia, the main commercial port, is oriented WNW, and I imagine the surge will inundate the entire downtown. I am also trying to imagine where one can find safe shelter. Most of the roads, schools and hotels are right at sea level, backed by steep hills that will be prone to mudslides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 http://magicseaweed.com/Leeward-Islands-Live-Winds/41/?wave=false&wind=true&zoom=6&stationId=68629 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Papa Joe said: Eye to the east means all the water in Okeechobee sloshes out to the south. I believe another poster mentioned that the dykes aren't in good shape. Those details probably aren't worth discussing yet. Besides, if Irma makes landfall as a cat 5 in Fla, it will test the limit of pretty much every piece of infrastructure directly in its path... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Any good streaming coming from the islands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Pretty sizable shift E on the GEFS from 00z to 06z with an increase in spread too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 06Z UKMET now has it missing Hispaniola, still goes over Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: Chris, I see Gloria in there :-) She was a Cat 5 for a brief time. Yeah, I remember tracking that on my NOAA Weather radio and big tracking chart on my wall. Still my fastest pressure fall where I could see the needle dropping in real time on my barometer when I got into the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, Derecho! said: 06Z UKMET now has it missing Hispaniola, still goes over Cuba. Seems like a slow correction to reality, or at least toward the global models output in narrowing down the path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Looks like recon is going for another pass into the eye, this time from NW to SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, I remember tracking that on my NOAA Weather radio and big tracking chart on my wall. Still my fastest pressure fall where I could see the needle dropping in real time on my barometer when I got into the eye. Was that in Long Beach? Was Gloria the one that reached Cat 5 at three different times in the Atlantic? I can see from the map that one of those hurricanes did that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 175mph sustained, means we're talking gusts close to or over 200mph...this is going to be horrific for anything in its path over the next 24-36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Cannot post but the 12z spaghetti models shifted East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Is this possible???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, weatherlogix said: Is this possible???? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon/2017090506/hmon_mslp_wind_11L_39.png I believe HMON is decoupled from the atlantic/GOM so very likely way too deep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 A good friend on mine lives in Anguilla. He is in Chicago now and has extended his stay until October 1, but he said people on the island are not taking this seriously and just go into their concrete homes and they will be fine. I just can not imagine the destruction that will take place on these islands and how they will get supplies there to save people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 If you're a NOAA Weather Radio geek, you can listen to the livestreams out of certain locations across the country here: http://noaaweatherradio.org/ The West Palm Beach transmitter will be getting interesting in a day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, No snow for you said: A good friend on mine lives in Anguilla. He is in Chicago now and has extended his stay until October 1, but he said people on the island are not taking this seriously and just go into their concrete homes and they will be fine. I just can not imagine the destruction that will take place on these islands and how they will get supplies there to save people. Most of the homes there are "hurricane proof" however I'm not sure at what wind speeds reinforced concrete begins to fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 LOL @ NAM....tracking Irma over or East of the Bahamas. Trust me I know the drill.....it's the NAM, it's not a preferred model let alone a tropical model, and it's 84 hrs+ out. Just interesting to see such a drastic outlier. Sorry if already mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Most of the homes there are "hurricane proof" however I'm not sure at what wind speeds reinforced concrete begins to fail. Correct but wonder what the storm surge will be on 180 MPH winds and also no way the roofs can hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, No snow for you said: A good friend on mine lives in Anguilla. He is in Chicago now and has extended his stay until October 1, but he said people on the island are not taking this seriously and just go into their concrete homes and they will be fine. I just can not imagine the destruction that will take place on these islands and how they will get supplies there to save people. Folks on the islands across the globe are used to things like this. It happens. My boss is from Guam and they have a similar philosophy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, No snow for you said: Correct but wonder what the storm surge will be on 180 MPH winds and also no way the roofs can hold. Well I'm not sure about the terrain of Anguilla however a lot of the homes in the Southeastern Caribbean are built on higher elevations precisely for this reason. St Martin is a bit of an exception with a large tourist area and the airport both located in low lying areas. Fortunately they might escape the core there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Was that in Long Beach? Was Gloria the one that reached Cat 5 at three different times in the Atlantic? I can see from the map that one of those hurricanes did that. I had to evacuate Long Beach a little further NE inland along the South Shore closer to where the eye crossed the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU4Real Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Well I'm not sure about the terrain of Anguilla however a lot of the homes in the Southeastern Caribbean are built on higher elevations precisely for this reason. St Martin is a bit of an exception with a large tourist area and the airport both located in low lying areas. Fortunately they might escape the core there. I've been to Anguilla - it's a beautiful island and the people are wonderful. The homes are, as noted, largely reinforced concrete with sheet aluminum roofing. The roofs will lift but the structures will survive, for the most part. Anguilla's residential population is built largely on higher ground and won't be affected by surge. There are, however, a couple of really great resorts that will probably suffer extreme damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, No snow for you said: Correct but wonder what the storm surge will be on 180 MPH winds and also no way the roofs can hold. Yea. Again, it's the water, not the wind that is the most destructive. If your house is standing but it's completely flooded, the damage is extensive. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Well I'm not sure about the terrain of Anguilla however a lot of the homes in the Southeastern Caribbean are built on higher elevations precisely for this reason. St Martin is a bit of an exception with a large tourist area and the airport both located in low lying areas. Fortunately they might escape the core there. St Martin looks to be a direct hit or at least very close to the southern portion of the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 I started a thread to discuss local impacts/questions people may have regarding Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Irma is an absolute beast this morning, I knew it would make Cat 5 but 175 mph wow. Have to wonder how much higher and lower the winds and pressure can go with her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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