Major Hurricane Irma

[nycwinter]

20 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Irma is going to chain saw its way through the northern islands. I hope those folks are hunkered down as best as possible. Very grave situation developing there.

the way this storm started off the cape verde islands.. so far north that usually means they go out to see... in many ways it's very unusual..

[jbenedet]

20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Looking rather annular this morning

San Juan Puerto Rico must be sweating right now. SJ has a 400k population and is located on the northeast coast of the island. They need a wnw track to commence very soon to avoid a devastating blow.

Good news is guidance consensus continues to have hurricane force winds north of their location. Nevertheless, I don't think they can breathe easier until a wnw track begins..

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

For those that are newer to the board & looking for info, here is the discussion from the Miami office of the NWS...

 

The third point is particularly important. Focusing on run-to-run model shifts (with which most of us here are familiar and understand) and the point-to-point NHC plot (as opposed to the cone) can detract from where the focus should properly be placed: the need to prepare for the risk (not certainty) of a potentially catastrophic hurricane landfall.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, Deaglesnest said:

Unbelievable. How unprecedented is this? 

Here's the cat 5 list and tracks from 1950-2016. You can see the brief red segment when Hugo reached cat 5 east of the islands in 1989.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[NJwx85]

9 minutes ago, friedmators said:

How accurate is this ERC prediction tool?  It seems to think an ERC may be in our future.

 

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/archerOnline/cyclones/2017_11L/web/summaryTableERC.html

ERC are almost impossible to predict, and with nearly constant recon we should be able to easily tell if and when they find a secondary wind maxima. 

[Papa Joe]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Big shift east on that versus 0z guidance. Really need to watch that trough over the northeast--subtle changes have huge implications, even for southern Florida.

Eye to the east means all the water in Okeechobee sloshes out to the south. I believe another poster mentioned that the dykes aren't in good shape. 

[hooralph]

We have been to Saint Barths 10 + times (last time was last April). I know the island like the back of my hand and I am trying to wrap my head around that tiny island taking a direct Cat 5 hit. The island has a strong spirit, but it will never been the same. Current forecast, fwiw, has the eye passing just to the north, which will arguably be worse than taking a NW quadrant hit. Gustavia, the main commercial port, is oriented WNW, and I imagine the surge will inundate the entire downtown.

I am also trying to imagine where one can find safe shelter. Most of the roads, schools and hotels are right at sea level, backed by steep hills that will be prone to mudslides.

[NJwx85]

[SACRUS]

 

http://magicseaweed.com/Leeward-Islands-Live-Winds/41/?wave=false&wind=true&zoom=6&stationId=68629

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, Papa Joe said:

Eye to the east means all the water in Okeechobee sloshes out to the south. I believe another poster mentioned that the dykes aren't in good shape. 

Those details probably aren't worth discussing yet. Besides, if Irma makes landfall as a cat 5 in Fla, it will test the limit of pretty much every piece of infrastructure directly in its path...

[Bostonseminole]

Any good streaming coming from the islands?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Pretty sizable shift E on the GEFS from 00z to 06z with an increase in spread too.

 

[Derecho!]

06Z UKMET now has it missing Hispaniola, still goes over Cuba. 

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris, I see Gloria in there :-) She was a Cat 5 for a brief time.

Yeah, I remember tracking that on my NOAA Weather radio and big tracking chart on my wall. Still my fastest pressure fall where I could see the needle dropping in real time on my barometer when I got into the eye.

[Buddy1987]

6 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

06Z UKMET now has it missing Hispaniola, still goes over Cuba. 

Seems like a slow correction to reality, or at least toward the global models output in narrowing down the path.

[NJwx85]

Looks like recon is going for another pass into the eye, this time from NW to SE. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, I remember tracking that on my NOAA Weather radio and big tracking chart on my wall. Still my fastest pressure fall where I could see the needle dropping in real time on my barometer when I got into the eye.

Was that in Long Beach?  Was Gloria the one that reached Cat 5 at three different times in the Atlantic? I can see from the map that one of those hurricanes did that.

[OUGrad05]

175mph sustained, means we're talking gusts close to or over 200mph...this is going to be horrific for anything in its path over the next 24-36 hours.  

[NJwx85]

Cannot post but the 12z spaghetti models shifted East.

[weatherlogix]

Is this possible????

[OUGrad05]

Just now, weatherlogix said:

Is this possible????

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon/2017090506/hmon_mslp_wind_11L_39.png

I believe HMON is decoupled from the atlantic/GOM so very likely way too deep

[No snow for you]

A good friend on mine lives in Anguilla. He is in Chicago now and has extended his stay until October 1, but he said people on the island are not taking this seriously and just go into their concrete homes and they will be fine. I just can not imagine the destruction that will take place on these islands and how they will get supplies there to save people. 

[Eskimo Joe]

If you're a NOAA Weather Radio geek, you can listen to the livestreams out of certain locations across the country here:  http://noaaweatherradio.org/

The West Palm Beach transmitter will be getting interesting in a day or so.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, No snow for you said:

A good friend on mine lives in Anguilla. He is in Chicago now and has extended his stay until October 1, but he said people on the island are not taking this seriously and just go into their concrete homes and they will be fine. I just can not imagine the destruction that will take place on these islands and how they will get supplies there to save people. 

Most of the homes there are "hurricane proof" however I'm not sure at what wind speeds reinforced concrete begins to fail.

[Ralph Wiggum]

LOL @ NAM....tracking Irma over or East of the Bahamas. Trust me I know the drill.....it's the NAM, it's not a preferred model let alone a tropical model, and it's 84 hrs+ out. Just interesting to see such a drastic outlier. 

Sorry if already mentioned.

 

[No snow for you]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Most of the homes there are "hurricane proof" however I'm not sure at what wind speeds reinforced concrete begins to fail.

Correct but wonder what the storm surge will be on 180 MPH winds and also no way the roofs can hold. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, No snow for you said:

A good friend on mine lives in Anguilla. He is in Chicago now and has extended his stay until October 1, but he said people on the island are not taking this seriously and just go into their concrete homes and they will be fine. I just can not imagine the destruction that will take place on these islands and how they will get supplies there to save people. 

Folks on the islands across the globe are used to things like this.  It happens.  My boss is from Guam and they have a similar philosophy. 

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, No snow for you said:

Correct but wonder what the storm surge will be on 180 MPH winds and also no way the roofs can hold. 

Well I'm not sure about the terrain of Anguilla however a lot of the homes in the Southeastern Caribbean are built on higher elevations precisely for this reason. St Martin is a bit of an exception with a large tourist area and the airport both located in low lying areas. Fortunately they might escape the core there.

[olafminesaw]