mempho Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Looks like a high-end Cat 5, at that (170+)Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits 8m8 minutes ago More An Air Force recon plane just measured 182 mph flight-level winds and 173 mph estimated surface winds in #Irma's NE eyewall. That's extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Irma is hitting its stride. Very symmetrical with that classic buzz saw shape. Expanding in size too. Not much to stop it not except an ERC but even that will just take a slight edge off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Recon reports don't support that right now. ADT estimates are up to 140kts which is ~160MPH. LOL, NHC begs to differ. ZCZC MIATCUAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 745 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017 ...HURRICANE IRMA BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE... NOAA and Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate Hurricane Irma has intensified into an extremely dangerous Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum winds of 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts. A special advisory will be issued at 800 AM AST (1200 UTC) in lieu of the scheduled intermediate advisory for Irma. SUMMARY OF 745 AM AST...1145 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 57.7W ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM E OF ANTIGUA ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM ESE OF BARBUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown/Landsea NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dizzy9479 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 8 AM out -- Cat 5 -- 175 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 That's a 5. Little doubt about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Recon reports don't support that right now. ADT estimates are up to 140kts which is ~160MPH. What? SFMR of 152 kts easily supports a Cat 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sirkan Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Official from NHC...Irma is a Category 5 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT1+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, blazess556 said: LOL, NHC begs to differ. ZCZC MIATCUAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 745 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017 ...HURRICANE IRMA BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE... NOAA and Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate Hurricane Irma has intensified into an extremely dangerous Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum winds of 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts. A special advisory will be issued at 800 AM AST (1200 UTC) in lieu of the scheduled intermediate advisory for Irma. SUMMARY OF 745 AM AST...1145 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 57.7W ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM E OF ANTIGUA ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM ESE OF BARBUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown/Landsea NNNN Notice I deleted that post? It was based off old data. As soon as I saw the new info I corrected it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Strongest hurricane wind-speed wise in the Atlantic since Felix in 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Irma is going to chain saw its way through the northern islands. I hope those folks are hunkered down as best as possible. Very grave situation developing there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfgmfg Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 NHC site getting slammed now with the Cat 5 announcement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 We should get some pretty good looks at the core later as Irma gets into range on KJUA radar. Current long range loop just shows some widely scattered showers from the outermost bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 NHC site getting slammed now with the Cat 5 announcement? Appears that way... Already linked as the lead on Drudge... Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Looking rather annular this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Folks... keep the comments on topic...we have a banter thread for a reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just curious, I can't recall any hurricanes of that intensity in recent memory east of the islands. I know Cat 5's east of the islands are very rare. I know before it was revised downward the database had Hurricane Dog (1950) at 185 mph in the open Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 21 minutes ago, andyhb said: Strongest hurricane wind-speed wise in the Atlantic since Felix in 2007. Only the 2nd cat 5 of the satellite era in that location just east of the islands since Hugo in 1989. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 What's the storm surge roughly around a cat 5 like this ? Also I have my parents and preg little sister in cape coral Florida . Should I tell them to wait another day or two. Or should I get them out of there now ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 How accurate is this ERC prediction tool? It seems to think an ERC may be in our future. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/archerOnline/cyclones/2017_11L/web/summaryTableERC.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 For those that are newer to the board & looking for info, here is the discussion from the Miami office of the NWS KMFL morning: All eyes continue to closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Irma. Here are the current Key Messages in relation to South Florida: 1. Irma is a powerful, dangerous hurricane approaching the northern Leeward Islands, and the threat to South Florida continues to increase from late Friday through Monday time frame. 2. South Florida residents and visitors should closely monitor the progress of Irma. Gather any needed supplies and review your hurricane action plans. Be prepared to implement that plan later this week. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from the National Weather Service. 3. Do not focus on the hour to hour changes in the computer models, nor on the exact center line track in National Hurricane Center forecasts. These can shift around considerably at this forecast time range. Instead, focus on reviewing plans and making preparations in the event watches or warnings are required. Short term (Today through Wednesday night)...Strong ridge to the northeast should keep the easterly flow across the region with a moist troipical environment persisting over South Florida this week. A fairly weak east flow remains over the region next couple of days allowing for both the Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes to develop each afternoon through mid week. Thunderstorms initiate near the coast and progress inland across the interior and west Gulf coast in the afternoon hours this week. The main threats from these convection will be gusty wind, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. Temperatures will be reaching the mid to low 90s across the area with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Heat index values will once again range between 105 to 108 over the western interior, near advisory criteria. At this time no advisory has been issued as conditions remain marginal. The heat index will be of increasing concern over the next several days, especially Thursday as tropical moisture combines with light wind flow and plenty of diurnal heating to create conditions that may warrant heat advisories for parts of South Florida. Pattern begins to transition by mid week as a low pressure over the Great Lakes deepens as far south east of the Mississippi River. To the east, Hurricane Irma is expected to remain a major hurricane. The interactions of the frontal boundary associated with the upper trough and Atlantic high pressure will be the steering force for Irma. At this point, the environment ahead of the storm looks to be supportive for it to remain a strong hurricane. The chances of South Florida seeing some impacts from Irma later this week are increasing. It is still too early to forecast where Irma`s path will go. Models will continue to change and we will have to watch for emerging trends and what potential impacts could emerge with Irma. At this point, the best bet for South Florida is to make a hurricane plan, gather their hurricane kit, and continue to monitor the progress of Irma as we head through the week. The extended forecast is almost entirely going to depend on Hurricane Irma. Continued in this forecast package the mention of conditions beginning to deteriorate over the Atlantic waters and the coastal areas with an increase in winds and heavy rainfall as threats into next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MazooWeather Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 NHC shows it strengthening even more in the next 12 hours to 180. God help the people in the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, dan11295 said: Just curious, I can't recall any hurricanes of that intensity in recent memory east of the islands. I know Cat 5's east of the islands are very rare. I know before it was revised downward the database had Hurricane Dog (1950) at 185 mph in the open Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 She's beautiful on microwave. And if the track stats constant St. Johns is in her crosshairs. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2017_11L/web/basicGifDisplay.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 20 minutes ago, Hazey said: Irma is going to chain saw its way through the northern islands. I hope those folks are hunkered down as best as possible. Very grave situation developing there. the way this storm started off the cape verde islands.. so far north that usually means they go out to see... in many ways it's very unusual.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Looking rather annular this morning San Juan Puerto Rico must be sweating right now. SJ has a 400k population and is located on the northeast coast of the island. They need a wnw track to commence very soon to avoid a devastating blow. Good news is guidance consensus continues to have hurricane force winds north of their location. Nevertheless, I don't think they can breathe easier until a wnw track begins.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: For those that are newer to the board & looking for info, here is the discussion from the Miami office of the NWS... The third point is particularly important. Focusing on run-to-run model shifts (with which most of us here are familiar and understand) and the point-to-point NHC plot (as opposed to the cone) can detract from where the focus should properly be placed: the need to prepare for the risk (not certainty) of a potentially catastrophic hurricane landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 10 minutes ago, Deaglesnest said: Unbelievable. How unprecedented is this? Here's the cat 5 list and tracks from 1950-2016. You can see the brief red segment when Hugo reached cat 5 east of the islands in 1989. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, friedmators said: How accurate is this ERC prediction tool? It seems to think an ERC may be in our future. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/archerOnline/cyclones/2017_11L/web/summaryTableERC.html ERC are almost impossible to predict, and with nearly constant recon we should be able to easily tell if and when they find a secondary wind maxima. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Papa Joe Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 hour ago, jbenedet said: Big shift east on that versus 0z guidance. Really need to watch that trough over the northeast--subtle changes have huge implications, even for southern Florida. Eye to the east means all the water in Okeechobee sloshes out to the south. I believe another poster mentioned that the dykes aren't in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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