LibertyBell Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 4 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: You are not. Heading to Keys and will likely end up on western side of Southern FL. Question about this, the path up the western coast of FL- isn't that some of the warmest SST in the entire Atlantic Basin? Every year when I look at SST I see that they are consistently the warmest in the eastern Gulf- usually in the upper 80s or even up near 90 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Question about this, the path up the western coast of FL- isn't that some of the warmest SST in the entire Atlantic Basin? Every year when I look at SST I see that they are consistently the warmest in the eastern Gulf- usually in the upper 80s or even up near 90 degrees. mor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Question about this, the path up the western coast of FL- isn't that some of the warmest SST in the entire Atlantic Basin? Every year when I look at SST I see that they are consistently the warmest in the eastern Gulf- usually in the upper 80s or even up near 90 degrees. It usually is due to latitude and depth of the water off the west coast of FL. It's fairly shallow close to the shoreline and SST's will tend to run where you mentioned. The warmest in the Atlantic Basin reside around the Southern coast of Cuba, Jamaica and the western extension of the Bahamas towards the Florida Straits. Another warm pool sits right in the Florida Bay. All of these are where models take Irma and have high TCHP. Interestingly enough, TCHP is actually not as high directly along the West coast of FL, but still sufficient to maintain cyclone intensity. Once Irma crosses 70W towards the Turks and Caicos and southern Bahamas, she'll be in a ripe environment for strengthening with some of the highest TCHP in the basin (Highest is actually south of Cuba in the Western Caribbean). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: It usually is due to latitude and depth of the water off the west coast of FL. It's fairly shallow close to the shoreline and SST's will tend to run where you mentioned. The warmest in the Atlantic Basin reside around the Southern coast of Cuba, Jamaica and the western extension of the Bahamas towards the Florida Straits. Another warm pool sits right in the Florida Bay. All of these are where models take Irma and have high TCHP. Interestingly enough, TCHP is actually not as high directly along the West coast of FL, but still sufficient to maintain cyclone intensity. Once Irma crosses 70W towards the Turks and Caicos and southern Bahamas, she'll be in a ripe environment for strengthening with some of the highest TCHP in the basin (Highest is actually south of Cuba in the Western Caribbean). Thanks for the indepth explanation. The area that you mentioned south of Cuba and near Jamaica- isn't that hurricane alley for Cat 5s- Gilbert, Ivan and Wilma were all Cat 5s in that area. FL straights is where the (in)famous 1935 hurricane attained Cat 5 status. And the SW coast of FL/eastern Gulf- there's an area there called "The Loop Current" where Katrina went south for a bit (maybe Rita too?), and I remember she rapidly intensified into a Cat 5 when she was in or near "The Loop Current." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Upgrade to 150 mph in the latest advisory, no surprise with the improvement in satellite presentation with a very symmetrical (almost Isabel-esque) CDO and 360˚ outflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 18 minutes ago, timnc910 said: So with all the 0z models going way west of previous runs.. I'm taking it that the east cost is fairly safe from any impacts from Irma? If trends are the thing to watch you can't deny the trends that happened all day yesterday. . Can the models go back to showing it's going east of Florida and making lf on east coast this very unlikely at this point.. all focused goes to Florida and the gulf coast.. the east coast will be spared from this storm.. Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk All it takes is a slow trend back to the east to put the entire east coast under threat of impact. I'm not sure it's likely, but very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 06Z GFS UPDATE: HOUR 60 JUST NORTH OF 00Z GFS, AND A LITTLE STRONGER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MazooWeather Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 06Z GFS at 60 looks to be a touch north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 06Z GFS at 60 looks to be a touch north Similar position to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Latest recon found 929mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Still heading NW at 108. Just a little north of 0Z, in the Florida Straits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Turning NW at 114 towards Miami Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 6z GFS should recurve east of 0z based on track further north and ridge weakness developing further east. Trough over eastern CONUS is also deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 It's going to be a crushing blow to Miami Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: It's going to be a crushing blow to Miami Close to making LF in Miami at 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Interaction with shortwave over Lower Miss Valley taking place. Storm will come due north along FL coast before dumbbelling back NW. In the meantime, Miami gets right in the eye. Absolute devastation Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: It's going to be a crushing blow to Miami Yea southeast Fla to get slammed this run. And then I think we see a more NNE track back over the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Interaction with shortwave over Lower Miss Valley taking place. Storm will come due north along FL coast before dumbbelling back NW. In the meantime, Miami gets right in the eye. Absolute devastation Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The shortwave weakens so it looks like it won't hook back in to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: The shortwave weakens so it looks like it won't hook back in to the west. Rides right up the coast From Miami. Near or just off shore of Jacksonville, Fla at 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: The shortwave weakens so it looks like it won't hook back in to the west. So It goes ots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 So It goes ots? Nope. SX/GA landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Whopper of an eyewall on most recent microwave pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 The shortwave weakens so it looks like it won't hook back in to the west.It's a little weaker and with a storm this magnitude, it could more northerly than anything else, but it shouldn't escape. Big hit on Charleston incoming. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Amazing microwave image, taken about 2 hours ago: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: It's a little weaker and with a storm this magnitude, it could more northerly than anything else, but it shouldn't escape. Big hit on Charleston incoming. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Well I guess all our talk of this possibly traversing The Loop Current goes out the window on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: It's a little weaker and with a storm this magnitude, it could more northerly than anything else, but it shouldn't escape. Big hit on Charleston incoming. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Gotta watch this, could get another ec landfall again. So back to drawing board again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MazooWeather Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 This run would be even worse than the 0Z, East Florida, and Coastal GA/SC would all get seriously slammed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: It's a little weaker and with a storm this magnitude, it could more northerly than anything else, but it shouldn't escape. Big hit on Charleston incoming. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Hilton Head gets wrecked. If that pressure was to come true Charleston would have severe flooding all the way to the airbase. I think we're nearing that point where S. Fla is going to get absolutely wrecked and it's just a matter of 50 miles one way or the other. I'd like to see what they're modifying to get the GOM landfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: Where does gfs go after sc Due N into western VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 ADT down to 925mb and 140kt (160mph) which would obviously make it cat 5. Lets see what recon can find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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