yoda Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Looks like Irma is starting to be pulled north at 72, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks like Irma is starting to be pulled north at 72, no? Yes... NNW/NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Goes 16 is just amazing right now. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80 I was just looking at that - those 'ripples' that seem to come off of P.R. - Land interaction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Moving N at 84... just offshore MIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Looks like 18z GFS is going to spare S Florida again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 I'm sure most people know and use this website, but for any newbies or lurkers www.spaghettimodels.com is a great website with so much up to date information on the storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 19 minutes ago, bluewave said: South Florida needs that track to shift since they aren't remotely prepared for a hurricane of this magnitude. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/08/23/bryan-norcross-hero-of-hurricane-andrew-florida-is-not-remotely-prepared-for-the-next-one/ He talks about the worst case, and storm surge for Miami: Quote What, in your mind, is the worst-case scenario for a South Florida hurricane? There are two kind of worst-case scenarios for Greater Miami-Fort Lauderdale. One is Hurricane Andrew coming ashore 10 to 12 miles farther north so that the destruction corridor includes South Beach, the Port of Miami, the banking district, the Miami International Airport, and the Coral Gables and Doral business districts. Besides the unimaginable destruction and widespread homelessness, it would be dagger to the economic heart of the region. Tourism and business would be incapacitated for an indeterminate length of time. With no jobs and housing, people would have to leave. It is impossible to imagine how the region would resurrect itself and how long it would take. The other worst-case scenario is exactly the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926. Because of its size — covering all of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties — that storm would incapacitate the entire region of nearly 5 million people. The estimate is that damage would approach $200 billion. In addition, there is a little-mentioned threat from a storm that generates a storm surge in the range of 10 feet along the oceanfront. Tens or hundreds of thousands of people would likely be stranded and immobile in their buildings after the storm. People staying in high-rise buildings would be safe, if they rode out the storm in a lower-level hallway. But the grounds and streets around the buildings within range of the storm surge would be deep in sand and debris — as happened in 1926. So people will be stuck in buildings with no power, no water, likely little or no communications, and no way to get out or get people in with supplies and aid for an extended time after the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Looks like AF309 is about to head out for recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 18z GFS might have ticked East which is probably just noise and will wobble back and forth with every run. Takeaway for me isnt track but much deeper SLP than past 4 runs in general MIA vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 18z GFS really hanging back the NE trough... may help steer it more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, cut said: I was just looking at that - those 'ripples' that seem to come off of P.R. - Land interaction? I think what you're talking about are the gravity waves. https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2017/04/21/paper-on-gravity-waves-caused-by-hurricanes-and-a-potential-new-way-to-estimate-hurricane-intensity-released-online-in-geophysical-research-letters/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: 18z GFS might have ticked East which is probably just noise and will wobble back and forth with every run. Takeaway for me isnt track but much deeper than past 4 runs in general MIA vicinity. Have to wounder if those skyscrapers will hold up against CAT5 winds.... Catastrophic run after run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Jose is very close to Irma on this 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Wow said: 18z GFS really hanging back the NE trough... may help steer it more east. slight eastward component at 102. Call it NNNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Getting some Correlation Coefficient drop in the eye if Irma this evening. Possibly some birds getting trapped in the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 24 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said: A wave cannot be higher than the water is deep. At about 80% of the water's depth the wave has no choice but to break. This is why large ocean waves never reach the coast. If you can get a good vantage point with good visibility you can even see "near shore" waves break on the horizon before reforming to become final beach breakers. And that's why 100 feet rogue waves occur out at sea not near the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Incoming for the Carolinas https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: slight eastward component at 102. Call it NNNE. Too late.. it's out and the UL energy has captured it and pulling it west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Now pulling NW, looks to make Landfall along the GA/SC coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Incoming for the Carolinas https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ Jose looking to recurve? Hard to tell what is happening at the tail end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Neblizzard said: Now pulling NW, looks to make Landfall along the GA/SC coast Yep, slightly more north than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 ADT up to raw T# of 7.4 which is highest in Irmas life so far. Also has estimated Vmax at 149kt which I believe is also the highest of the storm so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 17 minutes ago, cut said: I was just looking at that - those 'ripples' that seem to come off of P.R. - Land interaction? Looks like they're probably gravity waves to me (assuming we're looking at the same thing). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Some baroclinic effects also! Wind-field could expand also! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MazooWeather Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 A good thing to remember, if the 18Z GFS would verify even a slight shift West would sock Miami Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 First images out of Barbuda and it's unsurprisingly bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: Some baroclinic effects also! Wind-field could expand also! It very much will once it's captured by the upper low, same as Hugo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/905554512571719681 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, Neblizzard said: Now pulling NW, looks to make Landfall along the GA/SC coast This has been consensus for a day or two. Scrape Miami and then target the southern most SC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, winterymix said: This has been consensus for a day or two. Scrape Miami and then target the southern most SC coast. Euro and GFS seem to have this locked in now. Still some time to change but the consensus has grown for a major impact from Florida to the Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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