Major Hurricane Irma

[SACRUS]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Full track of 12Z Euro.

 

 

 

 

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

18z hurr models still focusing a bit east of FL east coast... pretty close to the GFS

Marked shift to the west from 12z.

[AlaskaETC]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It certainly would be if we don't see a track shift in the next few days. The high res Euro wind gust product is pretty rough.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/florida/gusts-3h-mph/20170910-1800z.html

Wow, that's pretty bad. This is also a great product/resource, best I've seen for the Euro for free. Is it usually available without a paywall? 

[yoda]

Just now, Drz1111 said:

Newsflash: a bunch of models based on the 0Z GFS look like the 0Z GFS. 

Um, pretty sure they aren't all based off the GFS

[LakeEffectKing]

Simulated IR just prior to LF (Euro):

[MattPetrulli]

Could be an extremely catastrophic hit for Miami if Euro verifies. Still sticking with my Matthew type track, just closer to the coast. Wouldn't doubt Irma being a 5 as it makes its close approach to Miami (assuming it does).

[Derecho!]

41 minutes ago, dbullsfan said:

this is my worry on the west coast of Florida, if it gets just barely east of or directly under Florida I dont see a storm this size slamming on the brakes and making a nearly 90 degree turn to the right, even nnw at that point puts the west coast right in line 

 

 

Storms this size make turns this sharp all the time. They aren't Mack Trucks - they are air and water vapor, and don't have momentum, really - they are just leaves in a stream. 

Also when you look at a track I think people forget the turn depicted takes about 36 hours and isn't instantaneous and doesn't involve "slamming brakes." 

[WishingForWarmWeather]

Raw T# to 7.3. Highest it's been thus far. 

             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                7.1     7.3     7.3

 

 

 

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt11L.html

[bdgwx]

The 12Z EPS mean loses it's cohesiveness after 72 hour, but it appears like it scrapes Cuba tracks over the Keys and then makes LF on the west side of Florida. But, boy, those members are unusually dispersive for this lead time.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, bdgwx said:

The 12Z EPS mean loses it's cohesiveness after 72 hour, but it appears like it scrapes Cuba tracks over the Keys and then makes LF on the west side of Florida. But, boy, those members are unusually dispersive for this lead time.

Respect the cone

[friedmators]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Respect the cone

Looks like a lot of crushing blows to the Tampa area in there.  EPS that is.

[Crazy4Wx]

So if this hits Miami as modeled...how big are the waves that flood Miami?

[NJwx85]

A few EPS members run this right up the coast and dump into the NYC area.

[packfan98]

Now what?  Evacuate the entire state of Florida?

[sauss06]

USAR teams that were to DEMOB today, are now being redirected to pre-stage for Irma. 

[WishingForWarmWeather]

How long until we get another recon pass? T#'s continue to steadily rise. 

[wxmx]

1 minute ago, WishingForWarmWeather said:

How long until we get another recon pass? T#'s continue to steadily rise. 

Less than an hour

[CheeselandSkies]

Sorry folks (even NHC with its gradual weakening on the intensity forecast), Irma isn't having an ERC. It isn't weakening. If it lost any intensity from its peak within the last 12 hours it is in the process of regaining it and then some. It hasn't even hit the warmest waters in its path yet, and there's no substantial shear forecast to counteract that. Think of Irma as the hurricane equivalent of some of the tornadoes on April 27, 2011 that had obscenely long path lengths and maintained high end EF4 to EF5 intensity over an abnormally large portion of that path, because they were in the perfect environment to do so.

[NaoPos]

7 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said:

How long until we get another recon pass? T#'s continue to steadily rise. 

Plane is in SE quad now. Flying NW. Bout 25-30mins

[salbers]

Wave to interact with Irma after landfall to pull it west is still hanging out in the Northern Rockies (MT/WY), though starting to descend southward.

[WishingForWarmWeather]

Just now, irishbri74 said:

Plane is in SE quad now. Flying NW. Bout 25-30mins

Anxious to see what it says and if it reflects the ADT increases in strength. Also interested to see if all 4 quadrants are still maintaining their incredible and uniform strength without. 

[Chicago Storm]

NWS San Juan had a severe t'storm warning out for one of the PR islands not too long ago.

[das]

1 hour ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Starting to see inner eye mesovortices sculpt the eyewall into the square/pentagon that Harvey had upon landfall.

 

You will really see it well as the center comes into view on the TSJU FAA terminal doppler weather radar over the next hour.  It's in rapid scan mode, capturing images each minute.

[KPITSnow]

So just a basic question...is the weakening trend more based on what models are seeing, or simply precedents that hurricanes in the Atlantic can't maintain this strength for a week at the time?

 

I say this because since it hit 185 last night, every intensity forecast has had a weakening process starting immediately, but it hasn't happened yet.

[ncskywarn]

Interesting by looking at the 200 image loop here http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-200-0-100 if you look at the last 30 min of imagery there is a definite hint of a more NW movement be interesting to see if this is a wobble or the beginning of a turn to the NW.

[salbers]

Nice loop - looks like CDO is expanding.

[southernskimmer]

No communication from anybody on the island of Barbuda for over 14 hours now. Prime Minister just hoppped on a helicopter to survey the damage. Afraid of how sad this could be...

[LakeEffectKing]

5 minutes ago, ncskywarn said:

Interesting by looking at the 200 image loop here http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-200-0-100 if you look at the last 30 min of imagery there is a definite hint of a more NW movement be interesting to see if this is a wobble or the beginning of a turn to the NW.

Trochoidal movements....average the vector of motion over longer periods than an hour or two...

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

So just a basic question...is the weakening trend more based on what models are seeing, or simply precedents that hurricanes in the Atlantic can't maintain this strength for a week at the time?

 

I say this because since it hit 185 last night, every intensity forecast has had a weakening process starting immediately, but it hasn't happened yet.

Probably more the latter.  You'd be pretty crazy to forecast a cat 5 for 1 week straight. No matter, the forecast has a cat 4 approaching Florida which should be enough for people to take it very seriously.

[friedmators]

Microwave imagery has updated and shows a pretty bright band around 120 km out.