powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, mreaves said: I got that on my phone and was going to paste it here but couldn't find it on their page. They do seem a bit bullish. Must be riding the NAM but it's a dangerous game. Ive been 6-12" at the ski resort since noon yesterday...feel good there. The backside upslope is the wild card. Friday could add decently with moist NW flow but it's always hard to tell how much. Upslope could be 2-3" or next thing you know the Spine is cranking out 6-9" of NW flow fluff after the synoptic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well I don't take NNE winter as positive in SNE. But I guess it's open to interpretation. I do think we can both agree a big winter in SNE is not in the cards Nickels and dimes the whole way, just like '15, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3km NAM better in CT as it really develops the backlash. Drops 3-6 N CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: 3km NAM better in CT as it really develops the backlash. Drops 3-6 N CT NGW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Why does it look so different than the crappy 12k? http:// Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Why does it look so different than the crappy 12k? http:// It's a 3km grid. Think of it like the HRRR or RAP. Prone to convective feedback. I'd be skeptical of using it beyond a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why does it look so different than the crappy 12k? http:// It is bombing the low a bit sooner than the 12km NAM...it develops the secondary a little further east to the south as well...rather than cut across GON is it going almost due north from just SSE of LI up into Newport, RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Gosh this is starting to get a little scary even up here, as I get closer and closer to that line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 weather people on tv stations just change their forecast every times models runs come out which is wrong that why i stay with my forecast dont change . wont a warm storm thur for ct Weather models have not been good this year but guess many dont see that . I seen it many times before when models went more warmer storm or more west track which never happen when the storm formed that why i dont change my forecast . That why lot people dont with changes they make day or night before the storm . you should stay with your forecast even if many change their forecast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It is bombing the low a bit sooner than the 12km NAM...it develops the secondary a little further east to the south as well...rather than cut across GON is it going almost due north from just SSE of LI up into Newport, RI. What should we be using or maybe better put.. putting more emphasis on this close in? The 3, 4 or 12k? Or do we blend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 BOX has cut back awt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 weather people on tv stations just change their forecast every times models runs come out which is wrong that why i stay with my forecast dont change . wont a warm storm thur for ct Weather models have not been good this year but guess many dont see that . I seen it many times before when models went more warmer storm or more west track which never happen when the storm formed that why i dont change my forecast . That why lot people dont with changes they make day or night before the storm . you should stay with your forecast even if many change their forecast ....so you're saying that it's wrong to give the public the most accurate, up-to-date forecasts possible based upon the latest model data?Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Gosh this is starting to get a little scary even up here, as I get closer and closer to that line I think your in a decent spot. Only thing that would really mix you is the gfs. I'm not too hopeful down here in SW Rockingham county though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, blizzard24 said: weather people on tv stations just change their forecast every times models runs come out which is wrong that why i stay with my forecast dont change . wont a warm storm thur for ct Weather models have not been good this year but guess many dont see that . I seen it many times before when models went more warmer storm or more west track which never happen when the storm formed that why i dont change my forecast . That why lot people dont with changes they make day or night before the storm . you should stay with your forecast even if many change their forecast . They're the worst! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Man what a difference that makes beteeen 12 and 3k. Bomb it sooner and CT gets the goods. Bomb it later and it's another 7-10 days of grass. Please be right 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 ALY sticking with the same...well see what 4pm brings, looking at the NAM, I say this is doable. I am still sticking with my 4"..If I bust high, yeay...if I get an inch and then rain, boo, but It's always looked like this would be the likely case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, CT Rain said: They're the worst! As Tip said to DIT, at least you're honest about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 8 minutes ago, blizzard24 said: weather people on tv stations just change their forecast every times models runs come out which is wrong that why i stay with my forecast dont change . wont a warm storm thur for ct Weather models have not been good this year but guess many dont see that . I seen it many times before when models went more warmer storm or more west track which never happen when the storm formed that why i dont change my forecast . That why lot people dont with changes they make day or night before the storm . you should stay with your forecast even if many change their forecast . Please wear your seatbelt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: They're the worst! Rip and Read...there are only a few of you on TV that actually do great analysis. You are one Ryan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, wx2fish said: I think your in a decent spot. Only thing that would really mix you is the gfs. I'm not too hopeful down here in SW Rockingham county though. Yeah...no need to worry about it. Many on the forum would love to be in our spot. Time to let it play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Yeah...no need to worry about it. Many on the forum would love to be in our spot. Time to let it play out. Yes and good not to overreact to the 18z nam. Gonna snow. Chicken squawkin coop rockin egg stopping stahm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What should we be using or maybe better put.. putting more emphasis on this close in? The 3, 4 or 12k? Or do we blend? Blend for now. There's really no point in going "all in" with a particular solution right now. I'd prob ignore the 3km...it's experimental. The 4km though isn't that different, a bit more toned down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 The place to be MEZ012-291030- SOUTHERN OXFORD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...BRYANT POND...HANOVER... LOCKE MILLS...MILTON...NEWRY...RUMFORD...NORWAY...FRYEBURG...OXFORD 328 PM EST WED DEC 28 2016 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY... .TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND 15. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .THURSDAY...SNOW...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT. .THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT. .FRIDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Yes and good not to overreact to the 18z nam. Gonna snow. Chicken squawkin coop rockin egg stopping stahm Just pure man snow right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, dryslot said: The place to be MEZ012-291030- SOUTHERN OXFORD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...BRYANT POND...HANOVER... LOCKE MILLS...MILTON...NEWRY...RUMFORD...NORWAY...FRYEBURG...OXFORD 328 PM EST WED DEC 28 2016 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY... .TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND 15. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .THURSDAY...SNOW...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT. .THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT. .FRIDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT. This is a nice pack builder for that Sunday River region...pretty classic. Hopefully they get a 50"+ pack at the base by the end of winter so I can do a repeat of my March 2014 trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Looks like I'll have to clear my greenhouse roof at least 3 times with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is a nice pack builder for that Sunday River region...pretty classic. Hopefully they get a 50"+ pack by the end of winter so I can do a repeat of my March 2014 trip. That area has been well modeled for a few days, Epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 ALY forecast for Thur....yet WSW gone and WWA up. ok.. Thursday Snow, mainly after 9am. High near 35. Southeast wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow likely, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. West wind 10 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Inside 24 hours, la la la lock it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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