powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 BTV mentioning isolated 24" amounts in the northern Greens with the strong upslope assist on Friday. This may break right in the end. Today was a nice over-performer too...1.75" at home to refresh the old pack and 3-4" at the resort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 18z RGEM looked a little better for the interior SNE spots walking the line...still a pretty aggressive inland track but it's really winding it up rapidly so it is compact and that gradient produces snow pretty close to the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: BTV mentioning isolated 24" amounts in the northern Greens with the strong upslope assist on Friday. Yea, in their disco they are basically going with a general 10-20" now east of the spine. 6-12" west slopes Thinking 6-10" in my hood down here on the west slopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 52 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Must be riding the NAM but it's a dangerous game. Ive been 6-12" at the ski resort since noon yesterday...feel good there. The backside upslope is the wild card. Friday could add decently with moist NW flow but it's always hard to tell how much. Upslope could be 2-3" or next thing you know the Spine is cranking out 6-9" of NW flow fluff after the synoptic. Screw the NAM. Now I'm progged for 3". This up and down is ridiculous. I'm going all in for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z RGEM looked a little better for the interior SNE spots walking the line...still a pretty aggressive inland track but it's really winding it up rapidly so it is compact and that gradient produces snow pretty close to the track. Its better then 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Its better then 12z Definitely a little worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 The point forecasts on BOX are pretty funny. Parts of Middlesex MA are basically 0-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Ooooh. That's a close call there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 8 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Definitely a little worse. I went from 2" to 8", I would beg to differ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Somewhat on a related topic (although now a day old) Eric Fisher on the Wintery Mix podcast talks about this storm and wx weenie stuff in general Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Thsts def a bit better in CT. One more tonight and it's 3 and 4K NAM like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z RGEM looked a little better for the interior SNE spots walking the line...still a pretty aggressive inland track but it's really winding it up rapidly so it is compact and that gradient produces snow pretty close to the track. I'm still wondering why the mesos want to track this from LI up over Boston whereas the globals want to take it from LI to CC and then Portland ME. I suspect the mesos are keying in on the deep convection (LHR) and are sensing that the best location for pressure falls is collocated with that area, despite the best UL synoptic region for pressure falls being further east. Personally I'm with the globals based on how the Upper levels evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 That's a really tight gradient near ORH on the RGEM....what a tough forecast....the gradient will probably end up even tighter than the snow algorithm shows...thebgigest question is how far SE or NW this gradient ends up in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Lol at thinking the Euro is an outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I'm still wondering why the mesos want to track this from LI up over Boston whereas the globals want to take it from LI to CC and then Portland ME. I suspect the mesos are keying in on the deep convection (LHR) and are sensing that the best location for pressure falls is collocated with that area, despite the best UL synoptic region for pressure falls being further east. Personally I'm with the globals based on how the Upper levels evolve. Nevermind I just saw the 18z RGEM. That's about as clear a sign as ever that the mesos were wrong and the globals (GFS UKIE and Euro) were right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol at thinking the Euro is an outlier I'm still in the saddle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: I went from 2" to 8", I would beg to differ Ha I'm just joking I wasn't even through the full run. Just love the its better, no its not, oh my god i'm screwed, i'm golden! type banter... lol its a trip in a lead up to a storm. Everyone seems like they are on edge a little or something too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Looks like 18z GFS has the slp going over the canal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 NW MA has been consistently 6-10" for days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Ha I'm just joking I wasn't even through the full run. Just love the its better, no its not, oh my god i'm screwed, i'm golden! type banter... lol its a trip in a lead up to a storm. Everyone seems like they are on edge a little or something too. I'm right on the chalk here.......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol at thinking the Euro is an outlier I think it was great at sniffing this out and being consistent. The nuances of a change in H7, slp, etc remain to be verified. Weenies crossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That's a really tight gradient near ORH on the RGEM....what a tough forecast....the gradient will probably end up even tighter than the snow algorithm shows...thebgigest question is how far SE or NW this gradient ends up in reality. Its a brutal call around here to Manchester too. Part of me wants to say the gradient will be a little south of were its modeled given the dynamics, but I have seen how we can easily torch the low levels strong low level easterly flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 NW MA has been consistently 6-10" for days now.Indeed. Short of interior ME/NH, our area has been steadfast in a storm that has been very very difficult to forecast. I'm content. Skied in charlemont several times this week, it's amazing how much snow they've lost. They NEED this.Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 We take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Curious for a METs explaination of what's with the duel low pressure centers that the 18z RGEM has and the EURO showed that to an extent as well with a closed isobar in SNE. Is that ocean low following that convection? It looks like from the QPF there'd be convective processes out there? The RGEM has the two lower pressures at 30 hours...one over SNE and another way out over the ocean. But then at 33 hours the northern one has taken over tracking close to the NH/ME coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Curious for a METs explaination of what's with the duel low pressure centers that the 18z RGEM has and the EURO showed that to an extent as well with a closed isobar in SNE. Is that ocean low following that convection? It looks like from the QPF there'd be convective processes out there? The RGEM has the two lower pressures at 30 hours...one over SNE and another way out over the ocean. But then at 33 hours the northern one has taken over tracking close to the NH/ME coastline. Looks like what the Euro did with developing an LP over the convection offshore that nudged the track it to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, dryslot said: We take Here's BTV's map...pretty robust. Going to need a solid upslope response but it does look promising at the same time on Friday for NW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, dryslot said: Looks like what the Euro did with developing an LP over the convection offshore that nudged the track it to the east The low to the NW though you can tell is what's spoiling the party in SNE. If that convective low took over it would be crushing BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Here's BTV's map...pretty robust. Going to need a solid upslope response but it does look promising at the same time on Friday for NW flow. You have that advantage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The low to the NW though you can tell is what's spoiling the party in SNE. If that convective low took over it would be crushing BOS. As well as many on the southcoast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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