mahk_webstah Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: Doubt we meet wind criteria. Well somebody might. Maybe not as far north and west as us. But the forecast itself sounds like blizzard warning . We've had two since 08 but not verified I don't think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Well somebody might. Maybe not as far north and west as us. But the forecast itself sounds like blizzard warning . We've had two since 08 but not verified I don't think The one thing we coastal dwellers have over land lubbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The one thing we coastal dwellers have over land lubbers. Yeah I'm always jelly of your wind during storms at your home locations. I see plenty of wind at the office and on the hill with the snow...but very little down in the village. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Honestly if I had to pick one poster where I'd like to be it would be Gene in New Hampshire near Newfound Lake. No p-type concerns there at 1,100ft and plenty of QPF on all tracks of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Thsts def a bit better in CT. One more tonight and it's 3 and 4K NAM like Enjoy the rain and a few cm's of slush, it's the only precip ya got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Some good storms firing down in eastern TN and KY. One of the offices down there mentioned the coverage was a little more than expected. But probably basically as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Honestly if I had to pick one poster where I'd like to be it would be Gene in New Hampshire near Newfound Lake. No p-type concerns there at 1,100ft and plenty of QPF on all tracks of the models. He's gonna get smoked. Long time coming there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: He's gonna get smoked. Long time coming there. Prob the best storm for that corridor since Mar 2014....though the southern part of that corridor had some taint in that storm...so it might be the best since even earlier in that winter...maybe Feb 13-14, 2014? Not sure they had a good blockbuster in 2015...you had to go east to Maine to get the goods that winter at that latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Prob the best storm for that corridor since Mar 2014....though the southern part of that corridor had some taint in that storm...so it might be the best since even earlier in that winter...maybe Feb 13-14, 2014? Not sure they had a good blockbuster in 2015...you had to go east to Maine to get the goods that winter at that latitude. Yeah that was the storm where Brian was getting 3"/hr. I forgot about the March storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah that was the storm where Brian was getting 3"/hr. I forgot about the March storm. The March 2014 storm was like that Killington to Conway to SR corridor...then SR got destroyed again like a week later on a "surprise" system with marginal temps. Anyways, those areas have been due for some big synoptic hits, so it's not a surprise if they string a few together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Prob the best storm for that corridor since Mar 2014....though the southern part of that corridor had some taint in that storm...so it might be the best since even earlier in that winter...maybe Feb 13-14, 2014? Not sure they had a good blockbuster in 2015...you had to go east to Maine to get the goods that winter at that latitude. Yeah probably Valentines Day 2014...that one ripped 18" in eastern VT too but I think was pretty meh here comparatively (maybe 8-10"?)....we did real well in the March storm that year with like 15" on 1.5" of QPF. That storm had poor snow growth but was ripping 0.1"+ liquid in the bucket for like 8 hours straight. None of us northwest of Dendrite had anything big synoptically in 14-15 and again in 15-16 obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: When I look at the soundings, you can easily see how big lift could make it a paste bomb...some of those frames where the 850 0C line is trying to intrude past ORH-ASH, the skew-T shows like basically isothermal with maybe +1 at 900-925mb. There's no obvious smoking gun warm layer of like 3-4C or something that makes it an easy call for rain. So yeah, it's going to be a brutal forecast for that ORH-ASH-MHT zone. You could easily see 1-2 inches of slush getting washed away if things break wrong but could also see double digits if things break right. The hard part, is I'm not sure how much of a intermediate zone there is going to be...like it's easy to say "we'll lets just forecast 4-6" as a safe play"....that might be the most unlikely amount. If it snows enough to reach 5 or 6", it's probably going to blow past that amount in a blue bomb scenario. Maybe a really narrow zone goes to town, then mixes/flips, and then ends as a quick burst to get that 5" amount...but I feel like it's either going to be 8"+ or 2" or less. Maybe that will change or become a bit clearer in the final cycle or two here, but man, not easy. Exactly my thoughts. You'll probably go from meh to absolutely paste job in a few miles. Given the strength of the low, the coastal front should be tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Awesome...and a good watch. Someone will get killed if MWN gets 20-30" with high winds laying on the ice-slick snowpack up there. Should see some huge avalanches in the ravines. The only time I've seen an Avalanche Warning issued here was after Valentines Day 2007 when like 3-4 feet fell in 24 hours. BTV issued an Avalanche Warning at the request of Stowe Mountain Rescue and Emergency Management. We just started issuing them on behalf of the Mount Washington Avalanche Center. They really just tell us the info that goes into it and we treat it like an air quality forecast. But still cool that we're doing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The March 2014 storm was like that Killington to Conway to SR corridor...then SR got destroyed again like a week later on a "surprise" system with marginal temps. This was the liquid equiv in the March 2014 storm... certainly my last largest QPF event as all snow. This area upsloped nicely on the moist SE flow with a bunch of 1.40-1.60" type equivalents from here (Stowe Village is the 1.54") to Waterbury and down near Sugarbush. Not expecting anything like that this time here but those total are definitely possible further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said: Consideration for Bw given rates up to 3/hour and gusts to 40-45? It's deceptive. Where we hit wind criteria on the coast it will be raining, and if/when we hit it inland the snow will likely be ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Looking through the EURO ensemble members from 12z....there's an almost scary amount (for a forecaster) of variability. Like three camps for here...one camp shows like 12-24", while the mean and middle of the road is more like 7-12", and then there's a camp of 3-6" which has just as many as the 12-24" camp. Crazy as the forecast could realistically be like 3-18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: This was the liquid equiv in the March 2014 storm... certainly my last largest QPF event as all snow. This area upsloped nicely on the moist SE flow with a bunch of 1.40-1.60" type equivalents from here (Stowe Village is the 1.54") to Waterbury and down near Sugarbush. Not expecting anything like that this time here but those total are definitely possible further east. I remember that. Okemo did real well...I think you and I talked about how they do well in synoptic events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 hours ago, dryslot said: We take She's a beaut, Clark. It's a 'non-coastal New England" winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 It ain't Jackson, but I'd love to see my p/c play out: Thursday Snow, mainly after 10am. High near 31. Southeast wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow likely, mainly before 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. West wind 6 to 11 mph increasing to 13 to 18 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. I guess that p/c encompasses their "greatest potential' map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, moneypitmike said: She's a beaut, Clark. It's a 'non-coastal New England" winter. MPM, its December man, haha. Every post seems to say its an "interior winter" or a "NNE winter" or a "non-coastal New England" winter. Its December. Lets keep the blanket statements at this juncture to a minimum. Its one storm. In December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 I like the probability maps. Nice bump up for the 18" probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: MPM, its December man, haha. Every post seems to say its an "interior winter" or a "NNE winter" or a "non-coastal New England" winter. Its December. Lets keep the blanket statements at this juncture to a minimum. Its one storm. In December. Remember when it wasn't supposed to snow in SNE until after Christmas? Partially whiff on one event in the week after and it's doom and gloom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: MPM, its December man, haha. Every post seems to say its an "interior winter" or a "NNE winter" or a "non-coastal New England" winter. Its December. Lets keep the blanket statements at this juncture to a minimum. Its one storm. In December. Methinks you missed the snark in my snarky post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: MPM, its December man, haha. Every post seems to say its an "interior winter" or a "NNE winter" or a "non-coastal New England" winter. Its December. Lets keep the blanket statements at this juncture to a minimum. Its one storm. In December. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, eekuasepinniW said: I like the probability maps. Nice bump up for the 18" probs. Watch the plants. You could do 12" of 8:1 cement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: MPM, its December man, haha. Every post seems to say its an "interior winter" or a "NNE winter" or a "non-coastal New England" winter. Its December. Lets keep the blanket statements at this juncture to a minimum. Its one storm. In December. Told you the pig pile will occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Watch the plants. You could do 12" of 8:1 cement. Moultonboro Mauler? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Remember when it wasn't supposed to snow in SNE until after Christmas? Partially whiff on one event in the week after and it's doom and gloom. I think you guys misunderstood my joke. I've had 2' on the season so far--I'm not complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Watch the plants. You could do 12" of 8:1 cement. That'd be pretty brutal. I've started roping up several of my shrubs ever since that Nov 2014 wet snow that split my magnolias all to hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Moultonboro Mauler? I do think that's the zone for some ratio related power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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