Thursday Thumper or Thirst-Quencher

[H2Otown_WX]

28 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

slightly confused why it struggles to snow back this way. at hr 23 on nam, im like -12c at 700 and -3c at 850 so i would have to assume 925, which i cant see, is too torched? but if 925 seems to be the key why even look at levels above it? 

Here's the sounding for Waterbury at that time:

Torched from 1600 feet on down.

[ono]

8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

RGEM looks nice--even south of the Pike.

 

I'm no met or algorithmic modeler , but that hole in the heart of VT may suggest something is going on with that particular model- no other model has that. that's extremely odd, and should be considered as a WTF

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We're getting a bit faster cyclogenesis on the 00z suite...not by much, but it's enough to make a difference in places that are riding the line like ORH-ASH...and it's shifting things just a pinch east.

For the ones riding the gradient even 10-20 miles makes a difference

[moneypitmike]

And then comes the GFS to turn the excitement of the meso's to a bunch of 'meh'.

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, ono said:

I'm no met or algorithmic modeler , but that hole in the heart of VT may suggest something is going on with that particular model- no other model has that. that's extremely odd, and should be considered as a WTF

Model over compensating for the Ct River Valley and some poorly calculated topographic nuances.  

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Model over compensating for the Ct River Valley and some poorly calculated topographic nuances.  

That sounds convincing, Chris. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

And then comes the GFS to turn the excitement of the meso's to a bunch of 'meh'.

 

Don't kid yourself, the common theme is that every model has you in the best spot of anyone in SNE.  lol

(not that I'm a martyr where I sit either)

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Here's the sounding for Waterbury at that time:

Torched from 1600 feet on down.

thanks man, yea i need to find a good page for soundings. going off maps, meh. wasnt far off with at 700 and 850 though. 

[ORH_wxman]

Sometimes I like to view it by the QPF that falls as rather than snow accumulations themselves....and it shows the gradient...an inch or more of QPF as snow near ORH goes to almost nothing in less than 20 miles...the gradient is even tighter in SE NH. I suspect the gradient will be at least this tight in reality...the question is where does it set up:

 

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Don't kid yourself, the common theme is that every model has you in the best spot of anyone in SNE.  lol

(not that I'm a martyr where I sit either)

 

LOL.  My comment was not with respect to GC.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Don't kid yourself, the common theme is that every model has you in the best spot of anyone in SNE.  lol

(not that I'm a martyr where I sit either)

 

 

Lol, yeah it's hilarious hearing moneypitmike narrate a crappier model solution as if it hurts his location.

[H2Otown_WX]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

thanks man, yea i need to find a good page for soundings. going off maps, meh. wasnt far off with at 700 and 850 though. 

If you can't use BUFKIT I recommend weather.cod.edu. You can put in lat./long. coordinates or just click a point on the map and it will generate a sounding for the nearest grid point.

[ono]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Model over compensating for the Ct River Valley and some poorly calculated topographic nuances.  

seems like not a great output- regardless of local features, that's just an outlier.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

That sounds convincing, Chris. 

Just rolling with those persistent little model blips I've seen modeled consistently over the years for valley areas from Greenfield to White River Junction Vt.

[ORH_wxman]

For those who were wondering where the sub-freezing temps were....most areas in the 20s before midnight tonight:

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Lol, yeah it's hilarious hearing moneypitmike narrate a crappier model solution as if it hurts his location.

Don't think that I'm not gloating a little bit about my fate here, even at a relatively low elevation.  We are on the cusp of getting crushed here if this wraps up on the faster side of current modeling.  Latitude then Longitude over elevation this storm. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Don't think that I'm not gloating a little bit about my fate here, even at a relatively low elevation.  We are on the cusp of getting crushed here if this wraps up on the faster side of current modeling.  Latitude then Longitude over elevation this storm. 

What were you going to Shirley for?  Beer lovers need to know! 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Don't think that I'm not gloating a little bit about my fate here, even at a relatively low elevation.  We are on the cusp of getting crushed here if this wraps up on the faster side of current modeling.  Latitude then Longitude over elevation this storm. 

You deserve some gloating after getting the shaft so often the past few years. Hopefully I get hammered in ORH anyway despite those wishing we miss out.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

You deserve some gloating after getting the shaft so often the past few years. Hopefully I get hammered in ORH anyway despite those wishing we miss out.

There is only one person that would wish for ORH to miss. Well maybe 2. To your south and east lol.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Obs thread ready when needed. 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

19 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

If you can't use BUFKIT I recommend weather.cod.edu. You can put in lat./long. coordinates or just click a point on the map and it will generate a sounding for the nearest grid point.

couldnt find soundings on there but i like there model page. ran sfc to 700 temp loops and its really close west of rte 8, not up in litchfield obv they look to grab a 4/5" spot imo. the 925 temps here crash but it may be too late. Im sure if i take a 15min ride up rte 7 to new milford i could see it rip big chutes between 21-24hr, 

[HoarfrostHubb]

I honestly don't know what to fully expect.  Could be 4". Could be 12".  Not totally on the edge here but closer than Ashburnham or Winchendon.  Those spots should make out well    

[HIPPYVALLEY]

7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

What were you going to Shirley for?  Beer lovers need to know! 

Ha, ha.  The Bull Run.  They blow through 5-6 kegs/month.  I always scout that Lunenburg/Shirley/Harvard area to see how accurate their snow reports really are. 

My routes from the E slope of the Berks out through your hood and beyond just make me that much more curious about the micro-climates.  Petersham/New Salem is where I would move if it were practical.  ; )

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

I honestly don't know what to fully expect.  Could be 4". Could be 12".  Not totally on the edge here but closer than Ashburnham or Winchendon.  Those spots should make out well    

I don't think you are at much of a disadvantage compared to Ashburnham this time around because longitude is nearly as important as latitude over central MA....Winchendon might a different story and def Royalston.

You may taint, but I would be kind of surprised at this point if you don't reach at least warning criteria. We'll see though, I reserve the right to change my tone in 12 hours, lol.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I honestly don't know what to fully expect.  Could be 4". Could be 12".  Not totally on the edge here but closer than Ashburnham or Winchendon.  Those spots should make out well    

Yeah, I would error a bit on the higher side but still, it could go either way and, in practical, terms there is a huge difference between 4" or 10" of wet snow.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Won't stay up for Euro but doubt it changes course much at this point.  Meso seem to have ok agreement on qpf goal posts.  All about how fast it winds up at this point and where the real ra/sn cut is.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, White Rain said:

I expect you will do quite well in this. I feel like I am really riding the line here. I could get almost nothing or do decently. Really curious how it all plays out tommorow.

You are literally on the line.  Lots of radar watching for you tomorrow.

[CT Valley Snowman]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I honestly don't know what to fully expect.  Could be 4". Could be 12".  Not totally on the edge here but closer than Ashburnham or Winchendon.  Those spots should make out well    

I think you do pretty well ,8+.  I hope GC gets crushed.  Sure its human nature to be a bit envious when you're on the outside looking in but as fellow weenies we should be routing for each other. We all get our storms. Some more than others.  I like the latest trends on some of the mesos , If I can grab a 2-3 inches here I'll take it and run, anything more would be gravy and a  pleasant surprise .  Less than 1 inch would be a bit disappointing 

 

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM clown map is giving a bit more hope to the 495 crowd and it a little more comfrtable for ASH-ORH:

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Saw one tweet of experimental lightning forecast.  Maine and eastern NH could see decent thundersnow