powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The killer is that it seems later to the party as Will said. Without the explosive deepening and rapid development of the CCB, it's tough to get snow. Also, don't fall in love with one closed isobar. There is still an appendage of low pressure into SNE. It could be that the convection the euro models decides to lower pressure slightly, so it throws a closed isobar there, giving the impression of a low center. This is not a concentric low pressure center. It does not change that below 925mb is warm and despite the eastward apparent look...the mid levels aren't responding to that until it gets ENE of Portland Maine. So as others have said...a little buyer beware of this run. I noticed that. The EURO had been really consistent and then actually goes pretty far SE with the actual low pressure... but there is a closed isobar over SE New England. I was curious what caused that. Its actually a little more on the eastern end of guidance now I think with that hook around the Cape type track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Probably a hiccup...hopefully comes back over BOS at 00z. Today's been sneaky snowy... 3-4" at the ski resort now. This would be a good one for it to take its throne back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah Euro is def a tick east of 00z...wasn't expecting that based on the 30h panel. All in favor of a tick east, however, is it possible that the euro is a "lone wolf" now?, if you say NAM, etc. start ticking east then its a game changer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, dryslot said: This would be a good one for it to take its throne back Yeah the EURO already won this one in my head though...I guess I'm thinking mid-range though in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 19 minutes ago, LaGrangewx said: I'll be at a cabin near gore ~1500ft. I like 4-8 maybe 10" potential with some oragraphic enhancement. I'm at gore right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 12z EURO did develop a little later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, 512high said: All in favor of a tick east, however, is it possible that the euro is a "lone wolf" now?, if you say NAM, etc. start ticking east then its a game changer? I'd like to see earlier development more than anything...the Euro was only just a smidge colder than 00z in the mid-levels despite the track...it is the explosive development that we want to start sooner more than anything else....obviously a further east track helps some, but not as much as earlier bombogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I'd like to see earlier development more than anything...the Euro was only just a smidge colder than 00z in the mid-levels despite the track...it is the explosive development that we want to start sooner more than anything else....obviously a further east track helps some, but not as much as earlier bombogenesis. Yes....east tic was negated by less impressive dynamics. This is what I mentioned would happen a couple days ago in the "100,000,001 ways to not snow on the coast" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'd like to see earlier development more than anything...the Euro was only just a smidge colder than 00z in the mid-levels despite the track...it is the explosive development that we want to start sooner more than anything else....obviously a further east track helps some, but not as much as earlier bombogenesis. 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes....east tic was negated by less impressive dynamics. grasping at any hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 According to the Euro I'm right at 15". I wonder if my 1100 foot elevation (600 feet above surrounding countryside) is going to help me with better ratios? That is all mesoscale stuff. I can't see the rain line getting this far NW. Tomorrow evening is going to be wild. I'll keep my weather station and infra red cam going as long as we don't loose power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, 512high said: grasping at any hope! The ASH-ORH corridor is on the line...we'll just have to wait a bit longer to see how any last minute trends fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, qg_omega said: I'm at gore right now 6 minutes ago, qg_omega said: I'm at gore right now How is it? Hoping tomorrow will be sweet and hitting whiteface Friday pretty excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah the EURO already won this one in my head though...I guess I'm thinking mid-range though in that regard. I've seen some folks saying everything caved to GFS lol. It's been the worst of the bunch. That said the Euro wasn't good on strength or early development either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, 512high said: grasping at any hope! You're in Nashua, NH. It's going to snow. Whether that's 4" of 14", you must really care about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: You're in Nashua, NH. It's going to snow. Whether that's 4" of 14", you must really care about. We do commercial plowing/removal........thats with all the intrest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I've seen some folks saying everything caved to GFS lol. It's been the worst of the bunch. That said the Euro wasn't good on strength or early development either At least down here in CT... it's 12z snow depiction from yesterday looks about dead on. Not sure about other areas but it's been good down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I've seen some folks saying everything caved to GFS lol. It's been the worst of the bunch. That said the Euro wasn't good on strength or early development either Well it hurt itself already in CT. It has not been perfect in the near term. This is why you don't always toss this or toss that. You have to incorporate everything you see and use gut and intuition to make a call. I know of a few times where you could go all in on one model, but many times some sort of a compromise works....with perhaps a 70/30 favor of one model over the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: At least down here in CT... it's 12z snow depiction from yesterday looks about dead on. Not sure about other areas but it's been good down this way. It showed a frontal passage 3 -4 days ago with no hint at 2ndary. Euro was first to show that. GFS played catch-up whole time . What it may have been better on once it caught on was the later farther north development.. but that's it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'd like to see earlier development more than anything...the Euro was only just a smidge colder than 00z in the mid-levels despite the track...it is the explosive development that we want to start sooner more than anything else....obviously a further east track helps some, but not as much as earlier bombogenesis. Looking back at the 12z Euro run, It looked like it developed the low over the convection that was further east then over SNE like 0z did at 0z friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: It showed a frontal passage 3 -4 days ago with no hint at 2ndary. Euro was first to show that. GFS played catch-up whole time . What it may have been better on once it caught on was the later farther north development.. but that's it Enjoy the 10" of snow the ECMWF gave you yesterday then lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, CT Rain said: Enjoy the 10" of snow the ECMWF gave you yesterday then lol Ouch.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well it hurt itself already in CT. It has not been perfect in the near term. This is why you don't always toss this or toss that. You have to incorporate everything you see and use gut and intuition to make a call. I know of a few times where you could go all in on one model, but many times some sort of a compromise works....with perhaps a 70/30 favor of one model over the other. But in this case even going 70/30 or 50/50 or whatever didn't work. No one south of 90 save w Mass and far NW CT is seeing any snow. A blend would have still given at least a few inches to CT and NW Ri up to Ray. Now it's rain start to finish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Ouch.... Funny . Why do you take part in snow threads and then troll people when things don't work out for snow lovers? You're a mod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 14 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: According to the Euro I'm right at 15". I wonder if my 1100 foot elevation (600 feet above surrounding countryside) is going to help me with better ratios? That is all mesoscale stuff. I can't see the rain line getting this far NW. Tomorrow evening is going to be wild. I'll keep my weather station and infra red cam going as long as we don't loose power. I like your spot alot for this system. I wouldn't be surprised to end up with 1/2 your total from this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 38 minutes ago, dryslot said: Probably get shot for posting this and can get deleted shortly after Doesn't change much for BOS or Tolland...slightly better for ORH..biggest difference on/near Maine coast. The last second tick east saves them, if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, nzucker said: Doesn't change much for BOS or Tolland...slightly better for ORH..biggest difference on/near Maine coast. The last second tick east saves them, if it holds. That whole area is missing by about 20-30 miles or so either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 50 minutes ago, dryslot said: GYX-KLEW 14" fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Funny . Why do you take part in snow threads and then troll people when things don't work out for snow lovers? You're a mod Yes, I'm a Moderator but I'm also brutally honest. This threat went in the trash around 18z yesterday when we started losing the early development. Sounds like you were latching onto the NAM without looking at other guidance. I watched the 00z runs last night and was even more confident of a washout. Today's 12z runs confirmed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: fingers crossed. Will have to see where we go from here is all, I'd rather be back where IZG and RUM is, I would be getting more work done.................lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 15 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Enjoy the 10" of snow the ECMWF gave you yesterday then lol LOL--we've missed your posts!! 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: That whole area is missing by about 20-30 miles or so either way As it's played out, I think I'm going to be here in Mass tomorrow and heading up to Maine first thing on Friday. That EC is so close to giving something to both locales. We'll see if the meso's continue with their NW theme soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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