ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Its going to be a better hit here, Looks like a track thru BHB It actually does a wide turn almost around the Cape...maybe brushing the outer arm...from ACK to downeast ME. Anyway, that def keeps more of interior SNE in the game vs some of the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Well, a split 50/50 between Euro and...well, pretty much everything else, still sounds decent for some folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Look anything like what the RGEM was doing? Euro is more consolidated with the low to the SE and a bit colder than the RGEM. Who knows if it is right though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Is it worse for CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Southern dacks, 4 to 6 inches? Looks like that's the consensus, o well I'll be at a cabin near gore ~1500ft. I like 4-8 maybe 10" potential with some oragraphic enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Have no idea what all this means for ORH, but it doesn't sound like things got worse (as far as snow potential). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Its going to be a better hit here, Looks like a track thru BHB Methinks you'll be riding the line on your snowmobile, not your boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Probably get shot for posting this and can get deleted shortly after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Euro is more consolidated with the low to the SE and a bit colder than the RGEM. Who knows if it is right though. Thanks. Guess this is where we will have a tough time resolving precise track due to the explosiveness. Heights will be crashing on top of us with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Ventrice via twitter Latest 4km RPM showing more of a rain event for eastern #MA. Just 2-4" for @Wachusett. Looks like @OkemoMountain area the big winner of ~2ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Still garbage for the southern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Ventrice via twitter Latest 4km RPM showing more of a rain event for eastern #MA. Just 2-4" for @Wachusett. Looks like @OkemoMountain area the big winner of ~2ft FTL that tweet. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 I wonder if this is where we start to see some ticking back east from here on out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Ventrice via twitter Latest 4km RPM showing more of a rain event for eastern #MA. Just 2-4" for @Wachusett. Looks like @OkemoMountain area the big winner of ~2ft Yeah the RPM tracks it over 495 basically. The meso models are tracking it the furthest west and that should not be discounted. They may end up handling this system the best. We'll see if they hold steady...I want to see consistency in the mesos and then I'll prob ride them almost exclusively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Ventrice via twitter Latest 4km RPM showing more of a rain event for eastern #MA. Just 2-4" for @Wachusett. Looks like @OkemoMountain area the big winner of ~2ft That models actually been getting colder. Its been an inferno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 It tracks it over IZG too. LOL. That won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Still garbage for the southern tier. I think SE of a BOS-PVD line is completely out of the game anyway barring a miracle...there's still probably some glimmer of hope for the 128 belt...esp N of pike, but it is low probability...we would need to see the solutions come back east a little bit. If the Euro was a sign that will happen, then it will def get more interesting...but it could easily just be a burp and random model variance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: Inland it doesn't look like a ton of wind initially, but there is signal for an increase in the boundary layer depth as the backlash CAA starts towards the coast and heights collapse. Inland maybe gusts around 40 mph the way models have trended, but closer to the coast could be sneaky higher wind. Thanks. 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: Probably get shot for posting this and can get deleted shortly after Congrats, Jeff. You're roller coaster ride continues. That'll get me my 30" going into 2017, it might even leave something on the ground up in Bath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Thanks. Congrats, Jeff. You're roller coaster ride continues. That'll get me my 30" going into 2017, it might even leave something on the ground up in Bath. 3-14" when i blend the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I think SE of a BOS-PVD line is completely out of the game anyway barring a miracle...there's still probably some glimmer of hope for the 128 belt...esp N of pike, but it is low probability...we would need to see the solutions come back east a little bit. If the Euro was a sign that will happen, then it will def get more interesting...but it could easily just be a burp and random model variance. Oh I'm including CT & RI in my southern tier. This is a just beyond the interior event to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 I should also say that not only do we need the solutions to come back east a bit for the 495/128 belt N of pike...we also need the earlier explosive development we saw on some runs yesterday....the Euro was a bit east on today's 12z runs, but it was still kind of waiting until it reached almost our latitude in SNE to really get cranking....it was getting going a bit earlier a few runs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Someone (a met not Bob) help me. The Euro moved east and a little colder.. yet now leaves CT all rain.. how it thst possible? Is it the later development? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Someone (a met not Bob) help me. The Euro moved east and a little colder.. yet now leaves CT all rain.. how it thst possible? Is it the later development? See Will's post right above you. Later development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Someone (a met not Bob) help me. The Euro moved east and a little colder.. yet now leaves CT all rain.. how it thst possible? Is it the later development? Yes it is. You are basically relying solely on the WAA thump which ends up mostly rain until you are maybe up by ORH and points N & W....you'd prob snow a little bit longer than the model snow output shows verbatim, but we still want to see the faster cyclogenesis if you are hoping for more than an inch or two of paste before rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Someone (a met not Bob) help me. The Euro moved east and a little colder.. yet now leaves CT all rain.. how it thst possible? Is it the later development? You already know the answer to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: I wonder if this is where we start to see some ticking back east from here on out? Probably a hiccup...hopefully comes back over BOS at 00z. Today's been sneaky snowy... 3-4" at the ski resort now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 The killer is that it seems later to the party as Will said. Without the explosive deepening and rapid development of the CCB, it's tough to get snow. Also, don't fall in love with one closed isobar. There is still an appendage of low pressure into SNE. It could be that the convection the euro models decides to lower pressure slightly, so it throws a closed isobar there, giving the impression of a low center. This is not a concentric low pressure center. It does not change that below 925mb is warm and despite the eastward apparent look...the mid levels aren't responding to that until it gets ENE of Portland Maine. So as others have said...a little buyer beware of this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Haven't had to dig this out for awhile.. Lots of people on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: The killer is that it seems later to the party as Will said. Without the explosive deepening and rapid development of the CCB, it's tough to get snow. Also, don't fall in love with one closed isobar. There is still an appendage of low pressure into SNE. It could be that the convection the euro models decides to lower pressure slightly, so it throws a closed isobar there, giving the impression of a low center. This is not a concentric low pressure center. It does not change that below 925mb is warm and despite the eastward apparent look...the mid levels aren't responding to that until it gets ENE of Portland Maine. So as others have said...a little buyer beware of this run. Yes my main worry is not that I change to rain; it is that the dynamics don't get going fast enough, so I have a fun 6-10 inch snow but miss a 12+ biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The killer is that it seems later to the party as Will said. Without the explosive deepening and rapid development of the CCB, it's tough to get snow. Also, don't fall in love with one closed isobar. There is still an appendage of low pressure into SNE. It could be that the convection the euro models decides to lower pressure slightly, so it throws a closed isobar there, giving the impression of a low center. This is not a concentric low pressure center. It does not change that below 925mb is warm and despite the eastward apparent look...the mid levels aren't responding to that until it gets ENE of Portland Maine. So as others have said...a little buyer beware of this run. Yeah it's got a little weenie low basically over UUU even though there's a slightly stronger low south of ACK. Not a great look on the Euro. The longer the low takes to get going the warmer it is for southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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