TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 And they say CT is weak? LOL necn @NECN 30s 30 seconds ago #BREAKING: Boston Public Schools to close Friday with heavy snow expected. http://trib.al/378Gkap Go spin out on 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Go spin out on 84 We are nothing compared to the hearty, grizzled bunch atop Mt Kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Hmmm, BOX point and click had an inch for Greenfield. Even better is that you could walk a few feet from a WSW in Worcester Co. to nothing, not even an advisory in E Franklin Co. Either BOX busts or models bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Hmmm, BOX point and click had an inch for Greenfield. Even better is that you could walk a few feet from a WSW in Worcester Co. to nothing, not even an advisory in E Franklin Co. Either BOX busts or models bust. I got a nickel on a box bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 guys ,., why do you post whole NWS AFD's ...? seriously - that's annoying. we know where to find them. If you want to use a fragment or something some how some way sure. But just blamming 7 paragraphs including marine products sometimes even. anyway, I think there's a 50/50 shot at a positive bust here for those totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 guys ,., why do you post whole NWS AFD's ...? seriously - that's annoying. we know where to find them. If you want to use a fragment or something some how some way sure. But just blamming 7 paragraphs including marine products sometimes even. anyway, I think there's a 50/50 shot at a positive bust here for those totals. Sometimes your posts are much longer than an AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Hanging at the beer garden at bruce if anyone is here say hi. Black jacket with ipa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 guys ,., why do you post whole NWS AFD's ...? seriously - that's annoying. we know where to find them. If you want to use a fragment or something some how some way sure. But just blamming 7 paragraphs including marine products sometimes even. anyway, I think there's a 50/50 shot at a positive bust here for those totals. I expect them to bust for my hood by about 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Sometimes your posts are much longer than an AFD Well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Sometimes your posts are much longer than an AFD Lmao...now that's funny!! I get his point though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 happy hour map time: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Sorry haven't had any time at all to post this past week. I expected this to tick NW, but did not expect this extent and so late in the game. Anyone care to comment on why we are seeing such a pronounced late shift? Really interesting. Here are my thoughts. The gif below compares H5 for same timepoint (12z Friday) on GFS run Feb 2 vs. GFS run Feb 4. You can see the ridge in the Atlantic more stout and this achieves several inter-related things: 1) the trough over the northeast is sharper, more negatively tilted, and further northwest 2) the right entrance region of the jet streak is now nicely positioned to induce cyclogenesis south of us 3) the influx of moisture from the Gulf is now targeting right into SNE 2) the right entrance region of the jet streak has shifted several hundred miles west and is now nicely positioned to induce cyclogenesis south of SNE: 3) the influx of moisture from the Gulf is now shifted west targeting right into SNE: The end result is we've evolved from an anafrontal system sweeping across SNE to a system with midlevel circulation and inherently a more poleward trajectory. Once the fundamental nature and mechanics of the system changed, the ensuing trajectory can change pretty quickly as we've seen in trends in the past 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Sometimes your posts are much longer than an AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 At this time frame how accurate is the hrrr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 At this time frame how accurate is the hrrr?I'd follow the trends over the next 3-6hr more than anything. The extended HRRR can get a little zany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 RAP coughs up a weenie 12+ spot from KORH to KRAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 At this time frame how accurate is the hrrr? just another piece. it can get a little kooky but it did really well imo with the blizz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Sorry haven't had any time at all to post this past week. I expected this to tick NW, but did not expect this extent and so late in the game. Really interesting. Here are my thoughts. The gif below compares H5 for same timepoint (12z Friday) on GFS run Feb 2 vs. GFS run Feb 4. You can see the ridge in the Atlantic more stout and this achieves several inter-related things: 1) the trough over the northeast is sharper, more negatively tilted, and further northwest 2) the right entrance region of the jet streak is now nicely positioned to induce cyclogenesis south of us 3) the influx of moisture from the Gulf is now targeting right into SNE output_CcGfj9.gif 2) the right entrance region of the jet streak has shifted several hundred miles west and is now nicely positioned to induce cyclogenesis south of SNE: 300mbconus.png 3) the influx of moisture from the Gulf is now shifted west targeting right into SNE: 700mbrhconus.png The end result is we've evolved from an anafrontal system sweeping across SNE to a system with midlevel circulation and inherently a more poleward trajectory. Once the fundamental nature and mechanics of the system changed, the ensuing trajectory can change pretty quickly as we've seen in trends in the past 24 hours. Excellent discussion and graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Nws Updated my point and click 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 2-5" per the wwa down here. Highly highly doubt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 RAP coughs up a weenie 12+ spot from KORH to KRAY. Crusher thru 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Water vapor loop looks sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 2-5" per the wwa down here. Highly highly doubt it If the commentary in here is correct, I don't see how anyone west of the canal gets less than 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 If the commentary in here is correct, I don't see how anyone west of the canal gets less than 6" I think in the end its all about the ratios. Some are tweaking their forecasts either expecting more rain or lower than 10-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 upton shoots a 3-5" with locally higher in SW CT (good call) while BOX goes 2-4" for Vernon/Manchester. So, agreeing with folks that BOX is behind with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Crusher thru 18 I think this may be the extended RAP here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The RAP is always a fun model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 It's like 50 degrees out and raining at 7:30. Can someone explain how it will be Snowing in 6 Hours and will Stick? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I feel like I'm missing something, but I'm not sure why the conservative approach.Bufkit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 It's like 50 degrees out and raining at 7:30. Can someone explain how it will be Snowing in 6 Hours and will Stick? Lol 34 here. We freeze (soon) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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