JC-CT Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Busses transporting kids in +SN isn't really a joke.Totally agree. I don't get what's confusing about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Ginx..who writes that? Is it a met? That map isn't bad at all. i do disagree with western CT thought. 3-6 is likely right to NY border probably their consulting Mets, last I knew it was a firm out of Washington State or something, Ryan would know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 probably their consulting Mets, last I knew it was a firm out of Washington State or something, Ryan would knowHey can you explain what that bufkit stuff meant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 probably their consulting Mets, last I knew it was a firm out of Washington State or something, Ryan would know DOT has a consulting firm... DEMHS does not and I believe it's a non-meteorologist who meshes together NWS products and adds a few extra tweaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 SREFs pinched the QPF field...lowered amounts in W SNE and upped amounts in E MA/RI it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 DOT has a consulting firm... DEMHS does not and I believe it's a non-meteorologist who meshes together NWS products and adds a few extra tweaks.Good job with the map then ,kudos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Kind of a "worse/best case scenario map. I had a much more conservative map with totals hat didn't reach as far west and were 2-4in lower, then whipped this up in a few min when I saw the HRRR because IMO it often does very well. It nailed even mesoscale components of last storm to a T. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Does anybody realize how much is involved in getting kids to the school in an urban setting? The bus isn't pulling up to kids doorway like they do in the suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Other model my map is biased with is 4km NAM from PSU E-wall interface. Yeah it's bullish and I was gonna drop totals a lot but whenever I make a forecast that's tainted with another forecast I regret it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 SREFs pinched the QPF field...lowered amounts in W SNE and upped amounts in E MA/RI it looks like. I figured that would happen eventually. We don't have good inflow at the mid levels with this to expand the precip shield more nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 SREFs pinched the QPF field...lowered amounts in W SNE and upped amounts in E MA/RI it looks like. still looks good for 1"+ liquid into the 128 belt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Hey can you explain what that bufkit stuff meantI will give you the link and you can read up on it. Basically a complex way of taking soundings converting qpf to snow based on snowflake production in the growth zone,figuring out how the ratios are and how the snow compacts as it falls. Bufkit data is run through various software programs to visually see the atmosphere sliced into levels. Ryan often posts his http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/retro_map.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I don't think Tauntons map at 4pm had enough of a gradient. Their totals seem kind of vague, playing it safe. New map should be up soon right? Don't they usually put one up around 730-8pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 Rap/HRRR time till it starts..then put em away and watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Yes Will, the SREFs went up to 2" of QPF for CHH, while the southern stream system for Monday looks to be west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 My post about the Boston schools wasn't meant to question the decision to cancel. I just think it's amazing that most of the public had no idea for much of today that snow was even a possibility - and now they're gearing up for a pretty potent little storm. I'm sure that many are skeptical given how warm it still is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 still looks good for 1"+ liquid into the 128 beltI'm thinking 6-10" for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I will give you the link and you can read up on it. Basically a complex way of taking soundings converting qpf to snow based on snowflake production in the growth zone,figuring out how the ratios are and how the snow compacts as it falls. Bufkit data is run through various software programs to visually see the atmosphere sliced into levels. Ryan often posts his http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/retro_map.html Thanks. So there was something crappy going on in the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I think Cape Cod will end up with around 3-6" as the comma head passes over. This is a low that is deepening to sub 1000mb as it passes over the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 SREFs pinched the QPF field...lowered amounts in W SNE and upped amounts in E MA/RI it looks like. shocking lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 bufkit has 1/hr rate for HPN at 7am. yea, good luck with wet roadways around CT for the morning rush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 weak. I'll be shocked if 84 and 91 are just wet/slushy 7-9am. Wet and slushy will be good for me. I have to drag a 53 foot trailer to Waterbury for a drop and hook delivery tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 shocking lolJust losing the overamped and overflat members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Thanks. So there was something crappy going on in the column.basically, GFS does run warm bias at the surface so .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Big storm amongst us, surface low will deepen to sub 1000mb over the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Local stations most recent map to the mix. I'm very surprised at how extrememly low these totals are. Right now NBCs makes the most sense for CT imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I'm thinking 6-10" for us. agree.. depending on how temps go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I'm thinking 6-10" for us. Me too. Seems the media outlets have been conservative given what we're seeing on the models now. Good luck neighbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Wet and slushy will be good for me. I have to drag a 53 foot trailer to Waterbury for a drop and hook delivery tomorrow morning. stay safe. 684 to 84 is way to go. 95 to 8 is no good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 RPM has 6-8" over most of E MA...a bit less down in far SE MA...more like 3-6" SE of a TAN-GHG line. Probably a general 3-6" over CT with closer to 6" amounts over E half of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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