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The AnaFront/Coastal Storm Disco 02/05/16


Damage In Tolland

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There's now enough guidance including the big boys to officially count this as a legit threat.
It probably beings some mixing issues initially but should transition to snow. Big bend back NW as a few knowledgable posters mentioned could happen with the baroclinic zone remaining closely.
Here's a crude Ukie map to illustrate.

P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

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There's now enough guidance including the big boys to officially count this as a legit threat.

It probably beings some mixing issues initially but should transition to snow. Big bend back NW as a few knowledgable posters mentioned could happen with the baroclinic zone remaining closely.

Here's a crude Ukie map to illustrate.

 

P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

 

You sure that's not all rain?

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You sure that's not all rain?

850s are fine throughout, surface is marginal but by how much I don't know. Could be anywhere from 0.01c to 5c based off the maps I have.

 

My guess is that the Ukie verbatim would be rain to a couple inches of snow for eastern areas, but as Kevin said, no way to know really considering the lousy parameters we get on that model. Euro is snow to the cape though and I trust it's temp profiles a lot more than I do the Ukie's.

 

I've been high on this threat for several days now and still think it has potential to be advisoryish for BOS-PVD corridor, longshot sure but not impossible.

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850s are fine throughout, surface is marginal but by how much I don't know. Could be anywhere from 0.01c to 5c based off the maps I have.

My guess is that the Ukie verbatim would be rain to a couple inches of snow for eastern areas, but as Kevin said, no way to know really considering the lousy parameters we get on that model. Euro is snow to the cape though and I trust it's temp profiles a lot more than I do the Ukie's.

I've been high on this threat for several days now and still think it has potential to be advisoryish for BOS-PVD corridor, longshot sure but not impossible.

Most kissed this OTS but it's always been prudent in my mind to watch given the season so far. Even if it's 1-3 or 2-4 or whatever. Appears like we have 10-14 days of winter upcoming before flip back to warmth, so let's maximize what we can
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850s are fine throughout, surface is marginal but by how much I don't know. Could be anywhere from 0.01c to 5c based off the maps I have.

 

My guess is that the Ukie verbatim would be rain to a couple inches of snow for eastern areas, but as Kevin said, no way to know really considering the lousy parameters we get on that model. Euro is snow to the cape though and I trust it's temp profiles a lot more than I do the Ukie's.

 

I've been high on this threat for several days now and still think it has potential to be advisoryish for BOS-PVD corridor, longshot sure but not impossible.

 

They look fine at that frame but 12 hours earlier they are +5 to +10. So it's hard to tell

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Most kissed this OTS but it's always been prudent in my mind to watch given the season so far. Even if it's 1-3 or 2-4 or whatever. Appears like we have 10-14 days of winter upcoming before flip back to warmth, so let's maximize what we can

I still think the CT River valley is too far west, I didn't eliminate a late bump west but never thought it would be enough to get more than flurries back here and I stand by that. If I'm wrong than congrats. I'd be more interested in SE New England if thermal profiles and BL temps co-operate.

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Why would you be using the gefs with a SE bias ..especially for an event like this that is based off warm sat's and baroclinic zone.

Why not post the EPS hits and/or the sref's?

No access, and srefs. Srefs went south btw.

Agree gfs has se bias. But that's 0/21.

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