CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I've actually presented my reasons why this should come west and it has. This absolutely should get snow back to at least BDl if not west of there. You all along have said OTS. We'll see what the 12z suit does Yes. Majority of this except for far SE MA is out to sea. I don't count mood flakes as a hit. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 When you say snow back to BDL, I'm assuming you mean 1-3"/2-4" river-east like you originally kept saying and not just flakes. Because some flakes in the air don't really count as far as I'm concerned. At least if we were to "take this event seriously" like you were saying on the first couple pages of this thread. Places like PYM to EWB may get something...there's still a realistic chance of >2" there. What I envision is like 1-2 maybe 3 from around the Ct river valley east and I can see 3-5 inch amounts from N Ri to Foxboro and a few sloppy inches around BOS That's what guidance consensus has as of now including ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The only reason Im on board with this is due to my location. If I was in CT, i'm not sure I'd have much interest..unless all the other models look like the UKIE at 12z. Even down here, temps may be a concern We are stealing all W, C & NNE snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 What I envision is like 1-2 maybe 3 from around the Ct river valley east and I can see 3-5 inch amounts from N Ri to Foxboro and a few sloppy inches around BOS That's what guidance consensus has as of now including ensembles Rgem... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 What I envision is like 1-2 maybe 3 from around the Ct river valley east and I can see 3-5 inch amounts from N Ri to Foxboro and a few sloppy inches around BOS That's what guidance consensus has as of now including ensembles Ok I'll say it. Not gonna happen Kev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 What I envision is like 1-2 maybe 3 from around the Ct river valley east and I can see 3-5 inch amounts from N Ri to Foxboro and a few sloppy inches around BOS That's what guidance consensus has as of now including ensembles I think you are misrepresenting what consensus guidance has. Euro ensembles were fairly decent with perhaps an inch of snow back to the river assuming the temps were cold enough...but we're getting pretty close to the event to be using them. Most of the guidance has no accumulating snow west of BOS-PVD line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The RGEM is actually a pretty impressive solution for E MA/RI/Ginxy-land...but it is out of its wheelhouse right now. I would want to see the global models support it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The RGEM is actually a pretty impressive solution for E MA/RI/Ginxy-land...but it is out of its wheelhouse right now. I would want to see the global models support it.Yep. Still meh west of 395 in ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 Important will be Ukie today since its led the charge from the get go. If it holds or comes west again.. We know it's right.. If it moves east I'll concede Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Yep. Still meh west of 395 in ct I am on the Meh train unless I am James or Ackwaves, they could get some very wet accumulations on the grass it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 This has always been a scraper at best so anyone on CC/Islands and in SE areas stand the best chance to see some light accum if we can sustain heavier rates. I can see 2-4" right around the Canal falling tailing off as you go west and mostly rain out on the mid/outer Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Important will be Ukie today since its led the charge from the get go. If it holds or comes west again.. We know it's right.. If it moves east I'll concede I don't understand the logic behind this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Wow nice look on the RGEM for eastern CT and east. That's got to be several inches at BOS/PVD verbatim with that look. Pretty cold also it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 If this event somehow shats the bed..and the very real possibility of a cutter /HRV runner early next week.. That would sure seal the deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 If this event somehow shats the bed..and the very real possibility of a cutter /HRV runner early next week.. That would sure seal the deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 GFS a tick west for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 GFS a tick west for Friday. Looks similar to the NAM/RGEM to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Looks similar to the NAM/RGEM to me. RGEM was more robust/further west than the NAM/GFS...but it's not in its wheelhouse yet so I don't put a whole lot of stock into it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/694919710790385664 BOX highlighting the possibility of accumulating snow THU/FRI on twitter. Get an inch to whiten things up and I'd be more than satisfied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Kevin you sound desperate and wishcasting something out of nothing. Seriously, take it easy. I think the Rev gets measurable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I think the Rev gets measurable. 0.1" isn't a very high bar to set. That wouldn't shock me...but anything >2" would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 I think the Rev gets measurable.Let them go. They will never acknowledge the fact that if this happens that it was a good job forecasting. They both wrote it off OTS. Now it appears a few inches back into western areas is at least a possibility with more to the east. Let's see how the rest of the suite looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Ukie is still very bullish, but it did shift east with the western periphery of the heavy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 UKMET went a touch east, but it's still a huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 0.1" isn't a very high bar to set. That wouldn't shock me...but anything >2" would. Oh I agree with this. But we know a ground whitener is all it takes to fire up the bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Oh I agree with this. But we know a ground whitener is all it takes to fire up the bus. If he gets more than 2", he can do naked high 5s all he wants. It's a strong s/w with good jet dynamics, but this has all the makings of a good outer edge band with exhaust immediately behind it from downward circulation around strong frontogenesis. I'm just not sold he gets the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Oh I agree with this. But we know a ground whitener is all it takes to fire up the bus. A slushy coating I was never really arguing against with him (regardless of whether he wants to lower expectations to that)...it was his original posts of advisory type snowfalls back into central areas of SNE. And despite his constant blustering about "calling" the event, I'll give kudos if we end up with accumulating snow >2" back into ORH-HFD corridor. But if this ends up as a small stripe of 2-4" in SE MA with a slushy coating NW of that, then it will be just be AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 It's not about me and what I get or don't get. It's about you guys writing it off and saying things like "next" and "I kiss this OTS" I may be on the western edge.. Point is it's hitting a big population of eastern areas with a decent snowfall of at least advisory levels . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 This may be one of those events where H5 lift marks the edge of the good stuff. Maybe it gets to RI and I-95 area of MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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