MJO812 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 JFK needs only 8.5 inches to reach 40 inches for the winter. JFK : 31.5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Good Point. During the 2013/2014 Winter, NYC had 57 inches by mid February. That's a fantastic pace for snowfall in NYC. Barely an inch of snow fell after mid February though. Many thought we were going to break the seasonal record...no dice. We have been seeing plenty of extreme snows focused over 30 to 60 day periods in the 2000's. Even 09-10 had a long gap in snowfall between the later December storm and amazing February run before the warmth cut things off in March. And then we had the extreme front-loaded 03-04, middle- loaded 10-11, and back-loaded 14-15. This year so far has some similarity with 05-06 in that an historic blizzard followed record to historic warmth which coexisted in the same DJF period. I guess a fantasy year would be putting all the best runs together in a make believe single season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I would watch the period after that cutter. There could be a big low that forms along the boundary. It all depends on where that stationary boundary sets up. I think there's some potential there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Pack refresher incoming!! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Hoping we can squeeze out another winter with the warm water along the West Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Hoping we can squeeze out another winter with the warm water along the West Coast. cahgt_anom.12.gif casst_anom.12.gif snowman says you`re crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Blizzard on the GFS at hour 288 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 snowman says you`re crazyYour hero Bastardi said the North Pacific is flipping to -PDO this year, not me. He's been touting that idea since 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Actually 54 inches was our total last year How much at your place in this last storm? That's why NYC still hasn't been able to challenge the 95-96 snowfall season with all the record snowfall of the 2000's. Even with all the historic snowfall of 2000's so far, it's very difficult to get wall to wall snowfall from late November through March. But the 30 to 60 day snowfall streaks have been off the charts. 95-96 was remarkable for giving NYC double-digit snowfall in all 4 months DJFM, I think the only time that's happened. However, the white stuff came in bursts with snow droughts (and often major thaws) in between. In general, the first 2-3 weeks of those months were snowy and the ends snowless, except for the late 4" dump in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Blizzard on the GFS at hour 288 lol Let the good times roll! Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Your hero Bastardi said the North Pacific is flipping to -PDO this year, not me. He's been touting that idea since 2015 Did you ever grade your Jan forecast ? How are we looking for Feb ? AN temps ? NO SNOW ? I am curious ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Did you ever grade your Jan forecast ? How are we looking for Feb ? AN temps ? NO SNOW ? I am curious ... Hahahahahaha!!!! Classic!!! February is going to rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Pouring snow right now. Looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Hahahahahaha!!!! Classic!!! February is going to rock We'll see. Snow is never a guaranteed thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Did you ever grade your Jan forecast ? How are we looking for Feb ? AN temps ? NO SNOW ? I am curious ... you can lay into long range guesses all you want but you missed the biggest storm of the season within 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 you can lay into long range guesses all you want but you missed the biggest storm of the season within 48 hours Are you seriously insane ? 8 days out I posted that there was the potential for a BLIZZARD . Don`t make me pull out your posts 6 days and 8 days out while we said the GEM was a crusher , you said , take a pic OTS , progressive . LOL 2 days out I was 10 plus KNYC when the EPS HAD.6 at the park and was 20 in CNJ 2 days out - you said " what if we get 15 " ? I did not post a lot here prior to the BLIZZARD I was busy away . Saying Ignore the 30 inches on the NAM but buy the 10 -20 on the GEFS/UKMET 2 days out was a miss ? Dude , I know I have kicked your a$$ in here over and over again . I know it sucks .I am sorry but you need to sharpen your game with me . Like I said you have these guys fooled not me . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Are you seriously insane ? 8 days out I posted that there was the potential for a BLIZZARD . Don`t make me pull out your posts 6 days and 8 days out while we said the GEM was a crusher , you said , take a pic OTS , progressive . LOL 2 days out I was 10 plus KNYC when the EPS HAD.6 at the park and was 20 in CNJ 2 days out - you said " what if we get 15 " ? I did not post a lot here prior to the BLIZZARD I was busy away . Saying Ignore the 30 inches on the NAM but buy the 10 -20 on the GEFS/UKMET 2 days out was a miss ? Dude , I know I have kicked your a$$ in here over and over again . I know it sucks .I am sorry but you need to sharpen your game with me . Like I said you have these guys fooled not me . you spit out model numbers while telling people to ignore the best performing model. all while never giving any meteorological reasoning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 you spit out model numbers while telling people to ignore the best performing model. all while never giving any meteorological reasoning that is called modelrological reasoning was using........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 you spit out model numbers while telling people to ignore the best performing model. all while never giving any meteorological reasoning Mike , I really think you`re sick . I ignored the best skill score model 2 days out that was only showing .6 and said follow the number 2 UKIE and 3 GEFS both were 1 inch KNYC 2 in CNJ . 2 DAYS OUT I use the RGEM inside 36 hours and ignore the NAM because of its DECADE over over inflating QPF . The EPS mean 3 days out at KNYC was 12 then scaled it back to 8 . The NAM had no support . Every model was jumping the SLP to the convection so after seeing it for 5 days many did not think it was CF . We all saw that there were wasn`t a - 5 SD NAO blocking this like FEB 10 , that`s why 10 - 20 2 days out was still a bigger call than most . 6 DAYS OUT , I said a blizzard was on the table , you said OTS . Almost all my posts were done away the 4 days prior . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 THIS IS WHAT WE ARGUED AWAY . JAN 18 - CHRIST On 1/18/2016 at 9:16 PM, PB GFI said: JB s idea tonite. I will leave it in banter. 1 to 2 ft from DC to Boston. 2 ft plus max around DC and just N and NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Did you ever grade your Jan forecast ? How are we looking for Feb ? AN temps ? NO SNOW ? I am curious ... My forecast has done very well. We are above normal in temps and there was an extreme luck storm that threaded the needle with perfect timing. January will be above normal in temps. As for February, more of the same, above normal month, there will be a transient cold shot week 2 followed by a big warmup again. Think roller coaster, no sustained arctic outbreaks. Also, minus another luck storm, snowfall will be below normal for February. El Ninos make winters so easy to forecast. It's a beautiful, wonderful thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 My forecast has done very well. We are above normal in temps and there was an extreme luck storm that threaded the needle with perfect timing. January will be above normal in temps. As for February, more of the same, above normal month, there will be a transient cold shot week 2 followed by a big warmup again. Think roller coaster, no sustained arctic outbreaks. Also, minus another luck storm, snowfall will be below normal for February. El Ninos make winters so easy to forecast. It's a beautiful, wonderful thingGive me an exact repeat of January and you can gloat about your "good forecast" all summer. Sincerely, someone who believes you have a say in the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 My forecast has done very well. We are above normal in temps and there was an extreme luck storm that threaded the needle with perfect timing. January will be above normal in temps. As for February, more of the same, above normal month, there will be a transient cold shot week 2 followed by a big warmup again. Think roller coaster, no sustained arctic outbreaks. Also, minus another luck storm, snowfall will be below normal for February. El Ninos make winters so easy to forecast. It's a beautiful, wonderful thing Do you really believe this ? You said No pattern change an no snow KNYC is + 1.6 AN for the month . There was 1 day of + 18 and another +15 . Those are positives for the month KNYC received 27 inches of snow in JAN . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 My forecast has done very well. We are above normal in temps and there was an extreme luck storm that threaded the needle with perfect timing. January will be above normal in temps. As for February, more of the same, above normal month, there will be a transient cold shot week 2 followed by a big warmup again. Think roller coaster, no sustained arctic outbreaks. Also, minus another luck storm, snowfall will be below normal for February. El Ninos make winters so easy to forecast. It's a beautiful, wonderful thing 2 weeks is transient ? The EPS show it . So does the GEFS What is sustained 3 weeks ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 My forecast has done very well. We are above normal in temps and there was an extreme luck storm that threaded the needle with perfect timing. January will be above normal in temps. As for February, more of the same, above normal month, there will be a transient cold shot week 2 followed by a big warmup again. Think roller coaster, no sustained arctic outbreaks. Also, minus another luck storm, snowfall will be below normal for February. El Ninos make winters so easy to forecast. It's a beautiful, wonderful thing Extreme luck ? We didn't thread the needle. The teleconnectors were in place for a major snowstorm and it occurred. You posted that the jet was too progressive for any snowfall in January and said we most likely will have to wait until February for snow. Now with the long range looking favorable again for a sustained +PNA/-EPO you're calling it a transient change. The weeklies disagree with your warmup as well going into week 4. It's a beautiful wonderful thing that your snowfall forecast for Jan busted hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 2 weeks is transient ? The EPS show it . So does the GEFS What is sustained 3 weeks ? From the looks of those maps it would not surprise me if we get another major to historic snow event sometime in February. I wonder what his excuse will be then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Apples and oranges guys. All of you have a lot of skills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 The snow is already down to piles in Long Beach. That's just crazy. For the amount of snow that fell, that has to be a record for how fast it melted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 From the looks of those maps it would not surprise me if we get another major to historic snow event sometime in February. I wonder what his excuse will be then. It's going to be very difficult to get another major event if the AO stays positive but small to moderate events are on the table.However a strong STJ will add more juice to any system so I could see a MECS if things align perfectly even in a neutral/positive AO regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Day length reached 10 hours today. The snow is already down to piles in Long Beach. That's just crazy. For the amount of snow that fell, that has to be a record for how fast it melted. Yeah, I've never seen such a substantial amount of snow melt so quickly. Nearly 20" to mainly piles in less than a week. I'm glad, I hate snowpacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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