mitchnick Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 High res is a smacking. Sick rates at 1pm. Widespread 6"+ if the column holds.this is one of the kind of events that could bust in the right way if the models are wrong with the cold collapsingyeah, it theoretically could go the other way, but I think we're good thx to the record air mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm pretty pumped right now. I'd go 3-5" DC-Baltimore, with 5-8" north. Still think 3-5 for s/e of 95 is aggressive. Hope I'm proven wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I think the srefs best use to is keep up disco during a lull. As far as adding value, only the 1%'ers that know how to decipher them can add value. you print them out on soft paper then wipe you're @$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 whats the high res track record vs the NAM? It's better with precip distribution. Not sure about thermals. It's like .7+ qpf for all before we totally lose the column. I'n sure there is sleet in there but I'll totally hug that run. It would be pouring snow for at least 4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 you print them out on soft paper then wipe you're @$$ Lol- you said it better than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I know it is a Saturday storm. But with the potential of 5 or more inches in the northern counties... Why hasn't LWX raised WSW... They can always back them back to WWA. We are well within the time frame for a WSW. What difference does it make? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I wouldn't make any specific forecast before the GFS and Euro roll out, but I think it would be safe to say at least 1-3" for the cities with more in the 'burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 High res is a dream run. Surface stays below freezing until the precip shuts off. Rain is south of dc. If the rgem looks similar I might start getting more excited than skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I can only imagine LWX is issuing watch / warnings with verification scores of late in mind. And lately, these have not been verifying, at least out here and seasonal trend is firmly established no matter what the model says. Don't blame them for holding off for now, plenty of time to catch up later, assuming it's even necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 High res is a dream run. Surface stays below freezing until the precip shuts off. Rain is south of dc. If the rgem looks similar I might start getting more excited than skeptical.Keep your moisture stream in the freezer until then please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I wouldn't make any specific forecast before the GFS and Euro roll out, but I think it would be safe to say at least 1-3" for the cities with more in the 'burbs. My first call is 2-4 for DC-Balt corridor and 4-7 for Hagerstown-Frederick-Monkton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I can only imagine LWX is issuing watch / warnings with verification scores of late in mind. And lately, these have not been verifying, at least out here and seasonal trend is firmly established no matter what the model says. Don't blame them for holding off for now, plenty of time to catch up later, assuming it's even necessary. It's a weekend, and precip in the LWX area at least isn't modeled to start until noon. I think we could see watches/warnings waiting even until the 18z runs start to come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Looks like Mappy will finally beat the rest of us at snow accums as the weather gods intended! keep talking dirty to me -- did I get NAMd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This is our digital snowstorm. Enjoy folks before GFS and Euro tell us it's 1-3 then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 keep talking dirty to me -- did I get NAMd? Yep... 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I don't like the orientation of the precip approach on the euro/nam...too much waiting and too much time for us to warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 keep talking dirty to me -- did I get NAMd? Yup. And extra Hires NAM'd. Hires is probably overdone as it usually is, but I think 4"+ for you is a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This is our digital snowstorm. Enjoy folks before GFS and Euro tell us it's 1-3 then rain. 'euro already told DC that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 'euro already told DC that I know. I expect more of same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The mood in here is diagnosible bipolar with mood swings run to run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The mood in here is diagnosible bipolar with mood swings run to run.. you mean model to model in each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12z RGEM at 24 -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/592_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 'euro already told DC that It did and the entire thing is knife edge. But taking the nams and rgem into consideration isn't bad practice inside of 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 CMC (really RGEM...right?) looks amazing! http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The mood in here is diagnosible bipolar with mood swings run to run.. it's because we live in different places....for DC the trend is not good....the Latest NAM is like 2-3 hours of snow with some sleet possibly mixed in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Lock it in We will all take that map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 you mean model to model in each run I'd go farther and say post to post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 you mean model to model in each run It's more like if you don't like what you read... just wait 5 minutes until you see something you like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12z RGEM at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yep... 8". Yup. And extra Hires NAM'd. Hires is probably overdone as it usually is, but I think 4"+ for you is a good bet. Thanks guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.