Bsudweather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It's 32 with humidity at 45%, don't no WB and all that stuff, but there is a train of moderate moisture, it looks to keep coming for hours! Half inch accrual looks to be a given, and just enough sleet to make the coating look like it has pimples, to quote on of my favorite posters- It just got real- Brick Hahaha, yep its getting real alright, here anyway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Seeing some nice radar returns east of Asheboro that should give some folks enhanced snowfall as it moves north east. Might be sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolina2Texas Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Snowing in Apex, NC! highway 64 @ US 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Am I missing something or are radar returns west of the triad potentially overperforming for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 First reports of spitting sleet north of FAY. Could just be a crow with a bad case of dandruff.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm under some of the enhanced radar returns; observe larger flakes moderate rate. No mixing yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Am I missing something or are radar returns west of the triad potentially overperforming for us? I definitely think they are overperforming. This could be a nice surprise here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Updated Ice Map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Latest RGEM.... http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Raleigh&mod=gemreg&run=18&var=prcp〈=en&map=us Yes, please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Am I missing something or are radar returns west of the triad potentially overperforming for us? I think it's probably because it is mostly sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Question: Here is GSO's sounding for hr 1 on the RAP. It is currently sleeting here. Clearly, the column is below freezing throughout on the RAP. Is the RAP screwing up its initialization and thinking the warm nose isn't as strong as it actually is or am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 brrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Going to be a rough night http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0075.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Sister says it keeps flipping back and forth between FZRA and a SN/FZRA mix in Cullowhee, NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Question: Here is GSO's sounding for hr 1 on the RAP. It is currently sleeting here. Clearly, the column is below freezing throughout on the RAP. Is the RAP screwing up its initialization and thinking the warm nose isn't as strong as it actually is or am I missing something? That's my question as well. Nothing but sleet. Maybe even a bit of ZR too. 850 temps look awesome right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 PeachTree City in Atlanta just upgraded Hall and Banks Counties to a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 That's my question as well. Nothing but sleet. 850 temps look awesome right now Warm nose above 850? It's certainly weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 If something does not change fast GSP will bust this for their piedmont counties from Greenwood to Chester. Laurens is at 30 now and I am sitting at 29 now with heavier precip getting close. My forecast from GSP is for little to no ice tonight and I cant see how that will be right. WYFF shows Jonesville at .30 of ice which is closer to reality I think. It makes one wonder why GSP keeps revising their forecast downward, as of 21z. They have Greenville getting 0.03" of ice which isn't logical at this point. I'm sure they will be expanding warnings in their next update... quite clear most of the northern upstate is going to be stuck in FZRA for the duration of this event with possible ice accretion in the .75 to 1.0" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 sleeting here and rooftops getting some white on them. Guess work decided not to cancel the nightshifts tonight so i'll be going in at 7pm. MHX just came out and says they prefer a low along the coast instead of just inland and has now removed our changeover to rain leaving us solely in the freezing rain area for the entire event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 That's my question as well. Nothing but sleet. Maybe even a bit of ZR too. 850 temps look awesome right now I know the nam had earlier been showing a warm nose above 850...at the 750 to 825mb level but i don't think it reached as far north as you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Going to be a rough night http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0075.html We tend to be on the edge of these things. Do you think it will reach Washington? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I know the nam had earlier been showing a warm nose above 850...at the 750 to 825mb level but i don't think it reached as far north as you guys. There's a warm nose above 850 mb, but as I showed on the previous page, the RAP's Skew-T still doesn't show it above freezing. Maybe it's just wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 What's with the big precip hole over the Piedmont? Maybe that's why the HRRR was dropping totals earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm sure they will be expanding warnings in their next update... quite clear most of the northern upstate is going to be stuck in FZRA for the duration of this event with possible ice accretion in the .75 to 1.0" range. its interesting to see gsp may get that much frz rain while ne ga is getting sleet. usually they are colder or in the sleet and n ga in the ice. seems bacwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 There's a warm nose above 850 mb, but as I showed on the previous page, the RAP's Skew-T still doesn't show it above freezing. Maybe it's just wrong. We found warm nose at 805 to 757 mb levels from 21z weather balloon launch up to 1.1 C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 What's with the big precip hole over the Piedmont? Maybe that's why the HRRR was dropping totals earlier? Now that it looks like this is a zr event for us, I'm glad some qpf totals were lowered on some models. Now lets hope they're correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 There's a warm nose above 850 mb, but as I showed on the previous page, the RAP's Skew-T still doesn't show it above freezing. Maybe it's just wrong. Radar shows the snow/sleet line just south of Reidsville/Roxboro. I would prepare for sleet from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Question: Here is GSO's sounding for hr 1 on the RAP. It is currently sleeting here. Clearly, the column is below freezing throughout on the RAP. Is the RAP screwing up its initialization and thinking the warm nose isn't as strong as it actually is or am I missing something? The model is just wrong, b/c that sounding would be snow. The NAM appears to have nailed the profile again. It's horrible on precip fields, but warm noses it does well... I attached a bufkit nam sounding from 18z for gso at 6pm below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 What's with the big precip hole over the Piedmont? Maybe that's why the HRRR was dropping totals earlier?There's no hole. There wasn't supposed to be precip there. The fact that the Triangle got anything at all speaks to the south trend of the northern tongue of precip that was supposed to be in southern VA only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It was 90% sleet 5% snow and 5% freezing rain about 30 minutes ago traveling on 40 from east Greensboro to Kernersville. Never underestimate the power of a warm nose. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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