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Found 39 results

  1. Figured we could have a separate thread dedicated strictly to December. Should be helpful when looking back on the discussions in the future. Hope everyone is doing well, and I hope we all have a December to remember!
  2. Good Monday morning everyone, Have offered to focus the general discussion thread on next weekends storm into one single thread. It's been a terrible winter so far s of I80 and not much to boast about north of I80. I'm adding graphics daily at about this time, until the threat fails to materialize. No guarantees on anything. It does not look good for NYC south, so far. Contributions are from the NWS public domain and the Weather.US and the ECMWF. We'll see how this verifies for long range value. The first two graphics are the NWS ensemble chance of greater than .25" water equivalent of frozen precipitation. These are run off of late day ensembles and post, "prior" to the 00z cycle ensembles. The two graphics courtesy of the ECMWF are the chances of 3+" of snow for this event which are increasing a bit in the I84 area and are from the 00z ensembles. No LOCK on any of this coming to pass though I'm pretty confident the interior west and north of NYC will have some sort of winter hazards this weekend. Depends I think, in part on how strong the northern stream short wave is that crosses the Great Lakes. The stronger it is, then I think the storm tracks further north. At 633AM the 14th, I added the 00z/14 NWS ensemble and EPS chance of 3+ inches of snow so that it's easy to go back and compare to reality. The risk has increased a bit for the NWS ensemble system to something similar to the EPS. Certainly no lock for 3+ inches s of I-84. At 457PM/19 added the NOHRSC snowfall analysis. Gives a feel for value in the ensembles. Later, Walt
  3. Hi, This thread is for obs only, keeping it a swift read-check for anyone wanting to see how much has fallen, including any NWS/Media. Also, attached is a final NOHRSC snowfall analysis for our Dec 11 event, which now properly reflects the NYC reality of sub 1 inch. Thank you very much to all who have added data to the prior obs threads. Walt
  4. Hi! Would like to see an obs only page for this storm to make it easier to find the data, not only for myself but potentially the media with avid winter weather interest quite high. I'll add only 1 EXPERIMENTAL graphic from about 5AM this morning (Saturday 30th before the storm), but may eventually add pix to support observations as this complex event evolves in its banded - varying intensity form. The graphic below i think is realistic about axis of trouble and I can explain it a bit on the Dec 1-3 discussion page if requested, for those who've not seen this experimental product. Other NWS staff may improve on my interpretation. The legend should assist.
  5. Good morning American Weather participants, It might be nice to consolidate wintry precip reports for whatever this minor event delivers today, under one topic. While flurries have occurred in parts of the metro area (nw NJ for sure) on the 8th, today's short period of flurries or snow should be a little more widespread though confidence on where anyone sees a slight accumulation (especially grass-cars-rooftops) is less than ideal.
  6. Good Friday morning, not much snow or sleet expected today but prolonged icing on trees/wires and untreated pavements foreseen for elevations above 1000 feet this afternoon-evening, especially Sussex County NJ into se NYS. Another marginal event but its definitely going to be cold. Here in Wantage NJ at 740'MSL at 720AM its still 32F with a very low dew point. It's been snowing a bit in Hazleton and Lehighton PA and now icing in Williamsport.
  7. Snow or sleet should begin ~2A-3A nw NJ and develop east northeastward with better chances for a start as snow when you get to the Hudson River and points east into Connecticut. The southern edge of any very brief slight sleet (or even wet snow) accumulation should be near Interstate 80 prior to sunrise EDT. Significant icing is possible over the high terrain above 1000 feet from nw NJ into se NYS and western CT before temps at even the highest elevations of NJ/SE NYS exceed 32F around Noon Sunday. Best chance for any small snow accum appears to be the very northern fringe of this NYC forum area. Hope we can get some reports of wintry accums of some sort.
  8. I figured since meteorological winter was just around the corner I'd go ahead and get the new observations topic ready. Let the season begin!
  9. One storm at a time. Should be fun overnight and wind down Saturday morning. Thank you for participating-contributing.
  10. Here is our 2019 February winter thread. I hope February is a month to remember for all of us across the forum in regards to wintry weather. We have a lot of moving pieces directing our February outlook so here’s to hoping we can start to get more clarity as we go forward. MJO is moving through phase 5 but it should be in phase 6 within the next few days so hopefully that translates well for us going forward.
  11. I in Wantage may not be able to post til ~230P. Have at it. Another mess. Posting some graphics by 7A, on the 20-21 Threat thread, to look back tomorrow and see performance.
  12. Hi! Looks like a nice little event coming tonight into Monday, with some banding, especially se NYS-CT where all snow likely.
  13. If the moderators feel the current thread on discussing the threat is sufficient then just discard this. I'll probably have something to start this around 5A or 6A/12.
  14. If I crash and burn... I crash and burn... But I think it is now warranted for this
  15. Would like to keep this an observations only thread of what will be an interesting 18 hour winter storm 5P today-2P Sunday, with potentially high impact (damaging power outage) glaze from somewhere near or just n of I-80 in nw NJ/ne PA northward to I-84, after a front end snow/sleet combo prior to midnight.
  16. I'm already at my low... Currently 32...
  17. Have fun, time to see if I keep batting 1.000
  18. The month of December is almost upon us so we figured it was time to create a December winter thread. Looks like it could be a cold month with possible time frames that may support good conditions for winter storms. Let the breakdown begin! BTW Go VOLS today, #beatmizzou
  19. Less than a week out and all indicies show both Carolinas getting something... So let's bring this one all the way home
  20. Rain, sleet, snow, thunderstorms, regional climate, jet stream, La Niña, El Niño, polar vortex, ice pack, ETC. anything that can have an affect on the two seasons in question is up for analysis and debate. Our forum is one of the best at informing and teaching people as well as conversing with friends. Let’s try to keep that going with this thread, and don’t forget a lot of people come to our threads just to learn. As we have some very talented professional and novice Mets on our board. Let the speculation begin!
  21. First storm tracking of the season. Let’s hope we all get some snow out of this.
  22. Winter weather advisories are up for the Western Valley, from Eastern Arkansas, West Tennessee, Northern Miss and SW Kentucky. Ice should develop overnight in these areas and transition to snow by tomorrow night. 1-4 inches look likely across most of the Western Valley with isolated spots possibly going higher. Per Memphis NWS the area will spend 48 hours below freezing just above the surface with surface temps struggling to rise above freezing. Very impressive event for any month there, let alone mid-November. There is also a chance of some brief freezing precip in the far NE Valley, though that may be contained to Western North Carolina.
  23. Looks like we have some snowpack starting to build around the globe. Hopefully we can get some artic air moving into the area soon!
  24. Cold air has entered the forum and the winter weather should be getting into the western forum area soon.