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Found 144 results

  1. BlunderStorm

    Winter 2018-2019 Observations

    I figured since meteorological winter was just around the corner I'd go ahead and get the new observations topic ready. Let the season begin!
  2. Would like to keep this an observations only thread of what will be an interesting 18 hour winter storm 5P today-2P Sunday, with potentially high impact (damaging power outage) glaze from somewhere near or just n of I-80 in nw NJ/ne PA northward to I-84, after a front end snow/sleet combo prior to midnight.
  3. Virtually all current disco pertains to January at this point, so it's time to fire up the January pattern thread. The Euro weeklies say the potential is there. The cold Nov/cold January is a pretty consistent match. So game on as we move into the heart of winter in the valley. Which I consider our prime winter frame to be Jan 15th-Feb 15th. Our coldest temps and most snow will usually fall in that window. Let's hope the pattern gets right as we head towards prime time.
  4. Wantage NJ 4 sw 740'MSL (8mi S of High Point NJ). Snow acc roughly 10P-450A 0.8" densely packed broomable snow. roads being plowed now. am aware of 1 school delay far NNJ at this time. T 22.8 here with very small flake snow falling at this time (458AM)
  5. I'm already at my low... Currently 32...
  6. Orangeburgwx

    January 12th-13th event

    Have fun, time to see if I keep batting 1.000
  7. I have dabbled in 8 week projections before with some success. I have not done that publically in 2 years. I had some down time last night and decided to dig up my old formulas but shorten my predicted outcomes to 4 weeks. The following is a somewhat educated guess. the period covered runs from Dec 21st to Jan 21st. Attached with each week is a generalized week long average of 500mb heights I do this for fun and not for a living. The week/10 days of Christmas ah hope springs eternal for this week ending 12/30/18 I see this as a strong transition week off the pattern reshuffle as we revert back to the stormy cold pattern which established itself in mid October. There is an outside chance we see some decent snow either Christmas eve or day, the better chance for a significant storm with heavy snow just away from the coast and near coastal rains ending as heavy snow could occur around the 27th. I am watching the 21st to 23rd as a possible big storm with heavy precip rain coast snow inland areas of SNE, if it occurs as a strong coastal storm, tides are high and will need to be watched. Temps -3 Precip AN Week ending 1/7 Happy New Year With the pattern transition complete cold snowy times this week. Between the 4th and 6th it appears that we are set up for a very sizable 6 plus snowstorm for all and if phasing occurs perhaps a KU storm. This week could feature a clipper and snow squalls as Arctic air establishes . Temps -5 Precip N Week ending 1-14 Bitter cold and Arctic winds with multiple Short waves in the flow means this week while below normal in precip, it could be squally in nature with fast moving clippers setting us up for the big dog Temp -8 Precip BN Week Ending 1/21 Happy KU Fully thinking this is the week of a massive KU, ala Jan 15 or Jan 05. Combined with a strong current higher than normal tide we could be looking at a repeat of last years coastal issues. Very Cold week to start with a post storm slight moderation. A clipper mixed in after the KU Temps -3 Precip WAN
  8. The month of December is almost upon us so we figured it was time to create a December winter thread. Looks like it could be a cold month with possible time frames that may support good conditions for winter storms. Let the breakdown begin! BTW Go VOLS today, #beatmizzou
  9. Observations (measured) of freezing rain, sleet and snow for the Sunday December 16 event. May help NWS and media alike. Thanks, Walt
  10. Ok kids, preseason is over. Winter is here
  11. Holston_River_Rambler

    December 8-10 Storm Discussion

    "Fate often spares an undoomed man, if his courage is good." --Beowulf, Book VIII, lines 572-3. Models seem set on a Gulf low with a banana High. The beginning of the storm over TX is in NAM range (stronger and further south with the High).Can we get the mid levels to wobble in just the right way? The WPC gives us all we could ask for at the surface at Day 4 in December, whatever ends up happening: EDIT to add in the end of the KMRX discussion this AM: "At this range some of the details are unclear, but it does look as if the potential for wintry precipitation Friday night and through much of the weekend is possible/probable. Details on ptype timing/transition and precipitation totals will become more clear over the upcoming days as this system is still over the Pacific and not being observed in the RAOB network at this time."
  12. Less than a week out and all indicies show both Carolinas getting something... So let's bring this one all the way home
  13. John1122

    December 8-10 Storm Obs

    See obs in the storm thread, so we need an obs thread. Snow has fallen in various parts of the forum today, especially Western areas. Hopefully the 12z models are at the correct solution and this is a thread and obs archive I'm reading during hot summer days. Currently imby 38 degrees, dp 31.
  14. Rain, sleet, snow, thunderstorms, regional climate, jet stream, La Niña, El Niño, polar vortex, ice pack, ETC. anything that can have an affect on the two seasons in question is up for analysis and debate. Our forum is one of the best at informing and teaching people as well as conversing with friends. Let’s try to keep that going with this thread, and don’t forget a lot of people come to our threads just to learn. As we have some very talented professional and novice Mets on our board. Let the speculation begin!
  15. Carvers Gap

    Fall Observations 2018

    I just realized that we need an observation thread for Fall. With the remnants of Flo approaching, though it might not be a bad idea to get the Fall obs thread rolling. What is left of Florence looks like it might be a rainmaker(within norms) for the eastern Valley. Wind advisories are hoisted for the mountains. Western NC is under a flood watch. Rivers that flow from NC such as the French Broad and Nolichucky may flood in TN due to rain in North Carolina.
  16. First storm tracking of the season. Let’s hope we all get some snow out of this.
  17. Winter weather advisories are up for the Western Valley, from Eastern Arkansas, West Tennessee, Northern Miss and SW Kentucky. Ice should develop overnight in these areas and transition to snow by tomorrow night. 1-4 inches look likely across most of the Western Valley with isolated spots possibly going higher. Per Memphis NWS the area will spend 48 hours below freezing just above the surface with surface temps struggling to rise above freezing. Very impressive event for any month there, let alone mid-November. There is also a chance of some brief freezing precip in the far NE Valley, though that may be contained to Western North Carolina.
  18. Cold Miser

    Winter 2017/2018 Wrap-Up Thread

    As Wiz prepares himself for the ever-so-angry servere season here in Connecticut it is time to reflect on the winter that was. ...A winter that ended up giving much more bang for the buck than expected, and even though just about all of February was nonexistent for many with regard to decent snow. Remarkable is a pretty good way to describe how March and April played out for many. Some of us had more snow fall in April than February. I think my mid-winter grade was D/C as I prepared to chain the snow blower to my leg and drop myself into the ice jammed river. The grades (all items are equally weighted) Overall Seasonal Snowfall: A+ Well above average snow fell. Snow vs. Rain: B As soon as March and April rolled around it was easy to forget how ****ty February was, including the rain…But it was there and it can’t be discounted. I expect rain in April and March but not so much in January/ February. Staying power of the pack: C This was just not a long term pack kind of winter at least in my neck of the woods. Local winter enjoyment: B Many times this would go hand in hand with the snow pack, but due to the big freeze up in December/ January, there were some good days for ice walks as well as a few snow shoe days. Temperature: B+ Even though it seemed like the rain would never end at times, there were plenty of cold days on hand to make it feel like winter, especially the first and last 3rd of the season. Snow Storm Quality: A- There was some pretty good storms this year, including 2 double digit beauties. There were many storms timed just right for morning or evening rush hour as well, and overnight storms which I like to see. Plus a Christmas morning snow. Overall Grade: B+ A better February would have made this a champion winter. I know that people like to use either meteorological winter or calendar winter as their guide to the beginning and end of the season, but I let the season be more fluent than that. About 20” of my snow (yes, it was MY snow) fell before the calendar said it was winter and after spring began. The real question is...Is it over? Will some see a late...LATE season paste bomb over the coming weeks?
  19. Looks like we have some snowpack starting to build around the globe. Hopefully we can get some artic air moving into the area soon!
  20. AMZ8990

    Winter Banter 2017/18

    Since we've have had our first freeze of the season, I figured I would start a winter banter thread. Take anything you see and read in this thread with a giant grain of salt. Let it snow, Let it snow, Let it snow.
  21. TauntonBlizzard2013

    Late Saturday 3/24 - Sunday 3/25 Light Event

    Some models have a bit of light snow activity moving through the area overnight into Sunday. Mainly focused towards the eastern portion of the area. Hi res RGEM looks like it would drop a general 1-2” down into eastern ma
  22. Carvers Gap

    2017-2018 Winter Observations

    Dwagner is reporting 2.5" of snow in Ducktown.
  23. All modeling pointing to a drastic one day flip from 70s to a frozen sleet,ice,snow event across CNE SNE. Not a big event but more notable for the quick sensible weather change. Depending on timing and intensity could be a commuter issue. Cold lower levels with a warm tongue at 775 825 level will cause sleet and mangled snow but some areas deep in the cold could pick up 2 to 3 of post 70 degree snow.
  24. The models have been extremely consistent with this and have taken it from 240-252 hours out to now 126 hours out until the Western forum begins feeling the effects. Tonight's model suite features heavy snow for a large portion of the forum on all models. The GFS brings this per the 1-28 00Z. The GFS has been consistent with heavier snow north of 40 on nearly every run for 5 days in a row. Quite a few of these runs sees a nice bit of accumulation well south of 40 as well. The Canadian was late to the party and is still waffling around. It painted the entire region almost with heavy snow during it's 1-27 runs. Today it moved the snow axis very far north at 12z, the 00z quickly brought it back, this time west of the Plateau and north of 40. The Euro has been pretty consistent with this as well. It actually moved towards the GFS a few days ago and for the most part has held to it's solution for several days as well. Tonight's 00z run was it's most robust into Tennessee in several runs.