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Found 143 results

  1. Almost everything outside of the mid-week light snow shower chance is now based in hoping February's decent ensemble modeling trends aren't the 40th head fake of the winter season. The GEFS snow mean is nice but seemingly meaningless the past few winters, as it has virtually not verified in 48 months when it shows these snowy solutions. The Euro at D10 looks better than it did at day 10 yesterday, so there's that. Still looks like a robust frontal passage behind a cutter in a fast moving pattern, rather than something that will set up shop and allow for truly cold weather to arrive for any length of time. If we get lucky and the Polar Vortex splits but will it help us? It split last year and record breaking cold hit the Midwest but didn't propagate into our back yards. I've not looked but I'd guess there's been very few times when Chicago had highs in the -10 range that it didn't get cold here. Last year that happened and we stayed warm. It also takes a few weeks for the PV to change weather in the Lower 48 most of the time. That would put us on track for the backside of February into March at best, where even with the aid of the TPV we'd probably be looking at lower elevation cold rain and elevated snow unless we got a bowling ball. If we are still hoping to reel in something in the D9-16 range in a week or 10 days, winter is likely over until late March or April, where it will invariably turn frigid for 2 weeks with rain or snow showers.
  2. A series of clippers looks likely, they are notoriously fickle in the area. Earlier the Saturday clipper was showing up for West Tennessee but now looks like it's shifted east. As always the higher up the better. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Smokies end up with over a foot when it's all said and done. The Plateau could get a few inches as well. Crossville to my area seems to be in the 1-3 inch range through Saturday. As always it will depend on timing and surface temps. Night would be much better.
  3. Going to get this loaded and on-deck for observations for December, January, and February. Specific events will likely have their own observation threads. This thread is for the time in between events. Winter is coming! In honor of the last Skywalker movie...
  4. Figured we could have a separate thread dedicated strictly to December. Should be helpful when looking back on the discussions in the future. Hope everyone is doing well, and I hope we all have a December to remember!
  5. Good Monday morning (Jan 20) everyone, Am a little uneasy starting this event specific topic since uncertainty exists regarding thermal profile and latitude of the primary-secondary development but I thought it best to get this going since it's a potential national news story from the Ohio Valley-Great Lakes to the interior northeast. Upfront: NYC-LI doesn't look promising at this time for more than 3" of snow , if any snow at all, due to the marginal thermal profile in advance of this system. The GEFS through 00z/20 was north of the EPS. There is still plenty of time-room for adjustment but at face value (00z/20 ensembles), this looks to me to be a primarily a northeast PA, northwest NJ northeastward into nw CT (I84 corridor) wet snowstorm with lots of potential (for a bust=no significant snow). My take is it will snow there for a time and that this event could be substantial impact upon higher terrain. I'm adding some graphics - these should not amp up NYC or points south.... but for me serve as a starter for a winter event. These include the 05z/20 NWS ensemble chance of 3+ inches of snow which is less than 10% for NYC. Then I've added..courtesy of the ECMWF and Weather.US, the 00z/20 EPS probs for 3 and 6" for this event (6 days in advance). I've also added the 00z/20 GEFS snowfall plume for LGA which is very low... most plumes under 2". This all adjusts as we move forward in time. If you want to root for snow, root development south of both ensemble systems 00z/20 positions. Am still concerned this will end up north and warmer (rain) up to I84. 625A/20
  6. Good Monday morning everyone, Have offered to focus the general discussion thread on next weekends storm into one single thread. It's been a terrible winter so far s of I80 and not much to boast about north of I80. I'm adding graphics daily at about this time, until the threat fails to materialize. No guarantees on anything. It does not look good for NYC south, so far. Contributions are from the NWS public domain and the Weather.US and the ECMWF. We'll see how this verifies for long range value. The first two graphics are the NWS ensemble chance of greater than .25" water equivalent of frozen precipitation. These are run off of late day ensembles and post, "prior" to the 00z cycle ensembles. The two graphics courtesy of the ECMWF are the chances of 3+" of snow for this event which are increasing a bit in the I84 area and are from the 00z ensembles. No LOCK on any of this coming to pass though I'm pretty confident the interior west and north of NYC will have some sort of winter hazards this weekend. Depends I think, in part on how strong the northern stream short wave is that crosses the Great Lakes. The stronger it is, then I think the storm tracks further north. At 633AM the 14th, I added the 00z/14 NWS ensemble and EPS chance of 3+ inches of snow so that it's easy to go back and compare to reality. The risk has increased a bit for the NWS ensemble system to something similar to the EPS. Certainly no lock for 3+ inches s of I-84. At 457PM/19 added the NOHRSC snowfall analysis. Gives a feel for value in the ensembles. Later, Walt
  7. Scattered snow squalls are likely to make it to near NYC midday Wednesday as a wind shift with steep lapse rates drives squalls out of NY state into the NYC metro area. Might have a few sprinkles at the beginning of any NYC squalls. Cant tell if it will be as dramatic as that of (Dec 18?). Probably not, but potential exists for rapidly changing road conditions in a couple of minutes in brief heavy squalls, especially northwest of NYC. Drier surface stabilizing cold air advection develops behind the squalls late in the day.
  8. Hi everyone, While much of this very very minor snowfall within NYC metro should melt on pavement, it looks as though there should be a slightest coating on cars/grass. Areas to the west-north-northeast of the city should accumulate a little better with the 1/2" or possible isolated near 1" accumulations in the higher terrain. This event should do a little better than that of this past Saturday night-early Sunday (1/4-5) which saw scattered dustings of snow and snow pellets in the northwest hills of NJ into ne PA. The best we can do right now. Walt
  9. Hi, This thread is for obs only, keeping it a swift read-check for anyone wanting to see how much has fallen, including any NWS/Media. Also, attached is a final NOHRSC snowfall analysis for our Dec 11 event, which now properly reflects the NYC reality of sub 1 inch. Thank you very much to all who have added data to the prior obs threads. Walt
  10. Obs only thread basis: Model consensus (12z/10 NAM and HRRR now back northwest again) suggesting widespread accumulating snowfall of 1 to possibly 5" for the area, max axis unknown and most of it occurring within 4 hours of sunrise Wednesday as temperatures fall to within 2 or 3 degrees of 30 during the snowfall.
  11. We now stand around 48 hours from snow falling in the area according to models. Anafrontal moisture will linger and allow the colder air to catch up, but how much cold and how much moisture remains the eternal question in our region. According to most model suites, plenty of both, but even though we are 48 hours out, models have been particularly bad at sniffing out actual snow events the last two or three years. So even with multiple model consensus that accumulating snow will happen, at best we can say "who knows?" at this point regarding how much, if any accumulates. Right now, Southern Arkansas to SEKY/SWVA look to be in play and the NAM is just namming it's heart out, having just delivered another juicy run for the region, especially mid and western areas of the Valley. WFO in the area remain rightfully skeptical, but are beginning to mention post frontal snow being possible, though in far less amounts than models are willing to churn out. Will it come to pass or go poof? Only the next 48-72 hours will tell. Still, our third potential event and it's not even solar winter yet, so things seem to be off to a good start.
  12. Hi! Would like to see an obs only page for this storm to make it easier to find the data, not only for myself but potentially the media with avid winter weather interest quite high. I'll add only 1 EXPERIMENTAL graphic from about 5AM this morning (Saturday 30th before the storm), but may eventually add pix to support observations as this complex event evolves in its banded - varying intensity form. The graphic below i think is realistic about axis of trouble and I can explain it a bit on the Dec 1-3 discussion page if requested, for those who've not seen this experimental product. Other NWS staff may improve on my interpretation. The legend should assist.
  13. This is a GREAT place for those not comfortable yet(on the pattern discussion forum) to place their observations. We really need some more folks from the western areas of our sub-forum to place observations here. We actually use those more than you know. Today has been HOT in the Tri-Cities with the third straight record high falling as we speak. Heat index is 96 out there. Feels like a horribly hot summer day. Just brutal. Another year and another hot Fall...I really don't like those. We do have some great discussion in the Fall Pattern Discussion and ENSO threads about when this heat may FINALLY break. Cause really for folks that cool weather, this sucks. LOL.
  14. With significant post-frontal snow looking increasingly possible for the northern and mid tiers of the Tennessee Valley under current modeling, going forward I figured I'd start ourselves a little thread dedicated to it and the potential early start to the winter season!
  15. Good morning American Weather participants, It might be nice to consolidate wintry precip reports for whatever this minor event delivers today, under one topic. While flurries have occurred in parts of the metro area (nw NJ for sure) on the 8th, today's short period of flurries or snow should be a little more widespread though confidence on where anyone sees a slight accumulation (especially grass-cars-rooftops) is less than ideal.
  16. Long range modeling is well into meteorological spring now. Things also get pretty quiet in here beyond winter, so probably not a huge need for monthly threads for a while. That said, we are coming out of a huge flooding/rain event and the GFS is showing a possible return to those conditions. The 16 day rain total, from 00z shows 10-12 inches falling over the period. So the extremely wet patten looks to continue. There may or may not be a brief cold shot in the early month period and there could be a winter threat in there, though obviously have to be heavily skeptical of it. After that, if we can believe the weeklies, warmth is back for the remainder of March.
  17. This may be the nerdiest thing I've done in a while, but I thought it would be cool to see what everyone's historical snow related averages, and other stats are that they have saved since they've been a part of this community. I joined at the tail end of the Eastern Days, and have been here for about 10+ years. Examples of stats to post: Largest one time snowfall Deepest snow depth in a season Longest number of days with measurable snow on the ground Largest seasonal snowfall (entire season) Smallest seasonal snowfall (entire season) Longest period at or below freezing All time snowfall Average (include the number of years that you have been a part of this community) Have you had a winter weather season (fall-to-winter-to-spring) where you had measurable snow during each of the big 3 holidays ...Thanksgiving, Christmas, Easter? If so what year(s)? Plus, any other statistics that come to mind. My Stats are from 2009/2010 - 2018/2019 10 season Average: 66.35" Smallest seasonal snowfall: 26.25" (2011/2012) Largest seasonal snowfall: 100" (2014/2015) Largest one time snowfall: 29" (2/8 & 2/9, 2013)
  18. Good Friday morning, not much snow or sleet expected today but prolonged icing on trees/wires and untreated pavements foreseen for elevations above 1000 feet this afternoon-evening, especially Sussex County NJ into se NYS. Another marginal event but its definitely going to be cold. Here in Wantage NJ at 740'MSL at 720AM its still 32F with a very low dew point. It's been snowing a bit in Hazleton and Lehighton PA and now icing in Williamsport.
  19. Snow or sleet should begin ~2A-3A nw NJ and develop east northeastward with better chances for a start as snow when you get to the Hudson River and points east into Connecticut. The southern edge of any very brief slight sleet (or even wet snow) accumulation should be near Interstate 80 prior to sunrise EDT. Significant icing is possible over the high terrain above 1000 feet from nw NJ into se NYS and western CT before temps at even the highest elevations of NJ/SE NYS exceed 32F around Noon Sunday. Best chance for any small snow accum appears to be the very northern fringe of this NYC forum area. Hope we can get some reports of wintry accums of some sort.
  20. I figured since meteorological winter was just around the corner I'd go ahead and get the new observations topic ready. Let the season begin!
  21. It saddens me to say that my snow thrower, White Out will made his final cut last night. It was fitting that in a season where he went un-used up until last night that his final run was for a good ole fashioned, days of yore, 15" storm. White Out was purchased 20 years ago this year at a now non-existent small engine shop in Canton, Mass. He has helped me through some of the toughest winters in both the Boston area as well as here in Connecticut, including the unforgettable winter of 2014/15 where he carved his way through 100" of pure joy. He has also been there for the down times...always waiting, and wanting to sink his teeth into a new coating of white gold...Including the infamous winter of 2011/2012...A bleak moment in SNE winter history, but also stark reminder that Mother Nature holds all of the cards. And if she says snow ain't comin' then it ain't comin' and there's nothing you can do about it. Sometimes we didn't always get along, like the numerous occasions where I pushed him hard to clear many inches of plow driven man snow away from the base of the driveway. There were also those days where I waited too long after a storm and found myself forcing him to cut into a frozen pack. But we were good together, and good for each other. Through the good and the bad White Out was always reliable...always there for me...always eager to serve. Even though he was never excited about the gravel driveway, I knew that he was just a new sheer pin away from happiness. Now, as I move on it is time for White Out and me to go our separate ways. I will be giving him to a friend who needs him. This new situation will be perfect as WO is beginning to show his age. He will be given an easy, double wide, flat asphalt driveway to clear. No more stones caught in the auger...No more pot holes and rugged terrain...No more doubling back, multiple times to clear huge swaths of driveway, and no more tough, bumpy, uphill climbs...No more parked in an exposed lean-to, covered with a tarp, with the wind whipping at your chute. Here's to you my friend. I hope you continue to satisfy your need to feed, while living a long and fruitful life at your new home. Take care Pics of last nights final cut...
  22. One storm at a time. Should be fun overnight and wind down Saturday morning. Thank you for participating-contributing.
  23. Northern edge of another mediocre snowfall (period of snow) should be somewhere just north of I80. Better chance 1"+ I78 region.
  24. Looks like the first of several snow or snow to ice-rain events over the next two weeks. This first probably has its southern edge of snow accum somewhere near I78 or I80, with the bulk of 1"+NYS-Southern New England. Flurries could begin Wednesday late morning-early afternoon but the bulk should occur very early Thursday morning.