jburns Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 We have come full circle first love the euro hate the gfs, then love euro ensemble and canadian hate the euro/gfs, love the nam/canadian hate the euro/gfs, and now love the GFS hate the NAM/Canaidan. LOL Yep. Thank goodness we are too sophisticated to wish cast. I will say that we are now in the range that has me paying attention. This is the first time I've felt a bit of excitement this season. I wonder if anyone will be staying up for the Euro tonight. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 18z GFS has well over an inch of liquid at RDU. Even if we cut this in half, with temps possible in the teens our snow ratios will be very high (15:1 or even 20:1). So we could still be looking at 10 inches of snow. We've seen this many times where the models ramp up precip totals. Man I really hope the GFS is showing the right setup. Even though the sref mean took a step back. It still has members supportive of amounts around that. 0z will be telling of all tales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 KGSP after the 18z run- "The primary weather features are not in place yet…we will carefully watch the pace of the arctic cold front tomorrow. The timing and position of the front and a mid-level feature arriving from the central plains will determine where snow and ice will fall." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Wow, drove the .25 line up to my do. Could easily be 4-5 inches up here at these temps It will be interesting to see the 0z run but this run really resembled the 12z ensembles. I would love to see the west shift continue.. This run even threw a little moisture as far west as my area. Not counting on it but would be a nice surprise. In a winter like this, I would be happy with 1". Also did you see fantasyland on the 12z.. Feb. 5/6.. Would make a lot of people happy on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Well this will be the first in several runs where the ensemble mean is dryer than the Op, hopefully it's close to the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 It will be interesting to see the 0z run but this run really resembled the 12z ensembles. I would love to see the west shift continue.. This run even threw a little moisture as far west as my area. Not counting on it but would be a nice surprise. In a winter like this, I would be happy with 1". Also did you see fantasyland on the 12z.. Feb. 5/6.. Would make a lot of people happy on this board. Yeah, noted that. Truncation messed that up. Had fat cold air supply and marginal temps aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 You could do better than I by just being east. We'll still both be in the mid-teens during the entire event. We still need a shift to the west to be in the game IMO.. right now based on the 18z we see flurries and Huff is sending us snow pics.. Let's cross our fingers that the 18z is on to something.. We will know in 5 hours when the 0z run comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 For RDU the 12z Euro EPS members had 34 of 51 with accumulating snow, 19 of those over 2" and 4 over 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 For RDU the 12z Euro EPS members had 34 of 51 with accumulating snow, 19 of those over 2" and 4 over 8". Was just about to post on this! Definitely improved from 00z. 00z had only 2 over 8" and the mean is now 2" higher on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 For RDU the 12z Euro EPS members had 34 of 51 with accumulating snow, 19 of those over 2" and 4 over 8". For ILM over half the members had 8" and the majority of those were over 10". 49 had accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'd pretty much given up hope for N GA... 18z GFS sucking me back in lol. Looking forward to the rest of the runs later tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Here's a comparison of the 18z GFS Sat., with today's 18z GFS at the point where the trough axis is running through Arkansas. 500mb heights and vorticity on top / 700mb height and relative humidity on bottom. You can see at 500mb that today's run is sharper with the trough, and farther south. Accordingly, note how the flow paralleling the 500mb height lines in today's run is more southwesterly just ahead of the trough in GA, SC, NC, E TN, VA, and MD...with the higher 700mb relative humidity extending much farther inland. Is it a blip, or a bit of a trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Someone please convince me to throw out the GFS. It doesn't even thaw until Saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Would hate to end up just getting a significant ice storm here in the Wilmington area. NWS thinks that dynamical cooling may keep this a mainly snow event: IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THAT DYNAMIC COOLING MAY OCCUR AS THEPRECIPITATION BEGINS TO FALL HEAVILY TUE NIGHT...KEEPING TEMPSTHROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BELOW ZERO AND THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES FORA MAINLY SNOW EVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The 18z GFS I believe has the worst verification scores of all the 4 runs, I would not get too excited yet but that was an interesting run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The 18z GFS I believe has the worst verification scores of all the 4 runs, I would not get too excited yet but that was an interesting run Which model was the best at 60 hours in for this past weeks storm? ENS avg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 18 GFS ENS mean looks close to the Op out to 60 Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Oh no, the 18z GEFS mean is just crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I finally waited long enough to get my 200 mile shift! lol Yep sad will probably go out to sea and nothing for anybody. We are within three days and models still different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Oh no, the 18z GEFS mean is just crazy how so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Which model was the best at 60 hours in for this past weeks storm? ENS avg? I'm guessing the GFS was but don't know for sure it's been by far the best model all winter on storms...the stat I was referring to was the running verification average over the course of several years for the 4 daily GFS runs, I think from best to worst they are 00, 12, 06, and 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 how so? Identical to Op, westward extent of 0.25-0.5" line is more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 how so?I know right. Post some maps or something.Edit: Thank you Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 18z GEFS agrees with the operational 12z QPF total 18z QPF total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Identical to Op, westward extent of 0.25-0.5" line is more west. If it's painting high totals like the Op was, then there ought to be some really absurd clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 18 GFS ENS mean looks close to the Op out to 60 Sent from my HTC One Big shift on the ens mean both at the surface and H5, tracking a 1011mb slp ese of ILM at 72hrs, little evidence of junk being left back in the southern stream trunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Under a winter storm watch for the Pensacola/Mobile area from Tuesday morning until Wed morning. Not something you see very often down here along the gulf coast. Hopefully everybody gets to see a few flakes here and it doesn't cause any problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Although nice to look at, I'm weary of taking the 18z gfs too seriously. But seeing the ensembles match it almost to a T is encouraging. Also, note the low temps thanks to the snowpack if it falls. Has zubzero temps over a fairly large area. Sometimes it is too cold in such circumstances but considering the euro was doing it over eastern nc on earlier runs where it had heavier precip, it certainly is not out of the realm of possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The 18z gfs snowfall maps posted by Allan must not have taken ratios into account. If GSO gets .7 qpf, then there would be no doubt more then 6" of snow. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Snow Goose had alluded to the fact that in is experience this year the EURO would shift more N/W within 36 hours. Again, that's this season. Could it be the GFS is catching onto something with the ingest of new data? (I am not sure new data went into the 18Z.) The 0Z Euro will be "must see tv" for us tonight in north GA. If the trends are there, I am just going to start watching WV loops and watch the trends unfold. The players are almost all the way on the field. i was wondering the same thing (btw i have yet to see the usual "its 18z throw it out" lol). is this the first real run with actual data into the model? if so the ones coming up at 0z could be quite interesting. seems like the last couple of days we have been talking about the data getting in starting about this time. we can only hope and gasp. most of us were used to the nw shift (which usually took most of us out of the game) but it worked in our favor a couple of years ago. with all these arctic blasts i assumed the storm would be shunted as well. if the system is coming in stronger, perhaps slowing down the strong cold air push enough to bring it nw some? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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