HKY_WX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 http://sanders.math.uwm.edu/cgi-bin-snowratio/sr_map_main.pl this is the best site to try a calculation. i'm not sure the equation, but it's pretty interesting. Using that site's equation for rdu, the gfs depicts a 56% chance of a greater than 15:1 ratio for most of the storm. that's with calm wind. If the wind is higher, it would be lower than that. My guess would be 12:1 - 14:1 for this storm in rdu. probably closer to 15-20:1 out in the foothills/mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Thanks packfan98 and Hickory. Hopefully this unfolds into a HSECS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 incredible agreement on the individual ENS members WRT the westward shift. OMG.. the individuals are amazing. Several have a neutral to neg tilted trough axis and really pumping up the sfc reflection. Here's one of many which are total eye candy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Thanks! BTW, HKY, your call on the sweet spot this afternoon is still holding sway. Per the evening GFS-NAM, Macon-Florence-(insert Fayetteville)-Rock Mount. Thanks, no prob! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Under a winter storm watch for the Pensacola/Mobile area from Tuesday morning until Wed morning. Not something you see very often down here along the gulf coast. Hopefully everybody gets to see a few flakes here and it doesn't cause any problems. I was wondering about that when I was reading about the WSW for Houston/Galveston. On average, how often does IAH or MSY or even Pensacola have a WSW? Been reading through the posts from this afternoon -- can someone give us a summary of the trends (westward, south, east?) Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 incredible agreement on the individual ENS members WRT the westward shift. only 1 member has no snow for the 85 corridor with one more showing 85 being the cutoff. . what a change from all the earlier runs. let's just hope it's not a fluke and we have the other models come on board to support them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This in my opinion is a great map put out by FFC. Leaving room for adjustments was a great statement to place on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Something we need to accept is that the next runs of the GFS will probably not look as good this one. This really is a weenie run to the fullest. I suppose it could still get better for folks in the west but generally this is it. So at this point, we really should not be looking at snow totals and stay focused on where the storm is going and where the precip fields setup. I would say if the next run shows .75 for RDU(over 1" now) I would consider that a win. **but will have to admit it was exciting to see this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Something we need to accept is that the next runs of the GFS will probably not look as good this one. This really is a weenie run to the fullest. I suppose it could still get better for folks in the west but generally this is it. So at this point, we really should not be looking at snow totals and stay focused on where the storm is going and where the precip fields setup. I would say if the next run shows .75 for RDU(over 1" now) I would consider that a win. **but will have to admit it was exciting to see this run. Anything over 0.5" of precip would be a huge win for us, we are within 48 hours of the event starting in the Carolina's, there isn't a whole of time left, all the important changes of the modeling happens within 36 hours starting at 0z run tonight, I would expect 0z runs tonight to be a lot better aligned and definitely by 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Wouldn't there be mixing issues for the central portions of the Carolina's? If I'm interpreting maps correctly that is. Not too informed on how to read/decipher 850's in a situation like this and what there impact could mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I was pulling up bufkit and just realized it's probably been since the 10-11 winter i did that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Difference in 0z and 18z. Check out @Wright_Weather's Tweet: https://twitter.com/Wright_Weather/status/427590606764797953 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Something we need to accept is that the next runs of the GFS will probably not look as good this one. This really is a weenie run to the fullest. I suppose it could still get better for folks in the west but generally this is it. So at this point, we really should not be looking at snow totals and stay focused on where the storm is going and where the precip fields setup. I would say if the next run shows .75 for RDU(over 1" now) I would consider that a win. **but will have to admit it was exciting to see this run. totally agree. It's very easy to get sucked in to a model run that finally shows a huge hit but it's only one run and it's the 18z run at that with no support from the canadian, euro, uk, and to a lesser extent the nam. This is why I'm not allowing myself to get too worked up over it. The support from the gfs ensembles is encouraging but it is still ran off the gfs and sometimes they can go off the cliff with the operational run. Now if the 0z runs, including the ensembles, come in still with a big hit or trending that way, then it will be hard not to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 By hour 30 on the GFS you can already tell it's going to be a huge run, tonight we will know by 24 hours. 18z at hour 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 totally agree. It's very easy to get sucked in to a model run that finally shows a huge hit but it's only one run and it's the 18z run at that with no support from the canadian, euro, uk, and to a lesser extent the nam. This is why I'm not allowing myself to get too worked up over it. The support from the gfs ensembles is encouraging but it is still ran off the gfs and sometimes they can go off the cliff with the operational run. Now if the 0z runs, including the ensembles, come in still with a big hit or trending that way, then it will be hard not to get excited. Am I correct to assume that someone has checked to see the model initialized properly and there was no missing data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Snow Goose had alluded to the fact that in is experience this year the EURO would shift more N/W within 36 hours. Again, that's this season. Could it be the GFS is catching onto something with the ingest of new data? (I am not sure new data went into the 18Z.) The 0Z Euro will be "must see tv" for us tonight in north GA. If the trends are there, I am just going to start watching WV loops and watch the trends unfold. The players are almost all the way on the field. Greg, I just went from .07 to .67 so something has changed, lol. I'll take half that qpf and back out the door dancing I knew it was coming north, but I won't believe my childhood dreams are finally coming true just yet. I will admit I have the Moles thrumming away in the underground layer, and they are promising me I won't be disappointed!! We'll see what the 0z has to say before I get out the snowflake volleyball, lol. Good times, as long as one remembers nature is mean, and can take it all away, and laugh while tasting your tears T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Anything over 0.5" of precip would be a huge win for us, we are within 48 hours of the event starting in the Carolina's, there isn't a whole of time left, all the important changes of the modeling happens within 36 hours starting at 0z run tonight, I would expect 0z runs tonight to be a lot better aligned and definitely by 12z tomorrow. The take away from the gfs 18z really is the fact it did not go drier/weaker. Agreed not getting caught up in the particulars as much as the fact the spread of moisture may not be totally determined just yet. The 00z runs are going to tell us which holds more truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Wouldn't there be mixing issues for the central portions of the Carolina's? If I'm interpreting maps correctly that is. Not too informed on how to read/decipher 850's in a situation like this and what there impact could mean. Looking at the 18z GFS, mainly SE NC and central/eastern SC would see some icy conditions. A good initial measure for ice would be 850mb temps are above zero and sfc temp below zero. See the map below. The thick line is the 850mb temp freezing line and the line blue line is the surface freezing line: You can still get snow in above freezing situations depending on dynamic factors, wetbulb temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 18z GFS drops .88" of ZR/ maybe IP then 7.1" of snow...hahaha holy shiz?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 totally agree. It's very easy to get sucked in to a model run that finally shows a huge hit but it's only one run and it's the 18z run at that with no support from the canadian, euro, uk, and to a lesser extent the nam. This is why I'm not allowing myself to get too worked up over it. The support from the gfs ensembles is encouraging but it is still ran off the gfs and sometimes they can go off the cliff with the operational run. Now if the 0z runs, including the ensembles, come in still with a big hit or trending that way, then it will be hard not to get excited. Definitely agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 perfect map out by FFC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 totally agree. It's very easy to get sucked in to a model run that finally shows a huge hit but it's only one run and it's the 18z run at that with no support from the canadian, euro, uk, and to a lesser extent the nam. This is why I'm not allowing myself to get too worked up over it. The support from the gfs ensembles is encouraging but it is still ran off the gfs and sometimes they can go off the cliff with the operational run. Now if the 0z runs, including the ensembles, come in still with a big hit or trending that way, then it will be hard not to get excited. I actually think the 18z NAM was a big fluke of a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Someone had mentioned either yesterday or friday that it would be later on sunday or early monday before the models would be able to get a sampling of data that would be needed to get a better handle on what is going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Spot checking a few locations in the Coastal Plain per 18z GFS bufkit data, solution which is indicative of a stronger closer to the coast slp, KPOB (just west of FAY) 15.6" all snow, KRWI (Rocky Mount) 11.9 all snow, KEWN (New Bern), 0.4" snow, 0.97 IP, 1.37 ZR, wow. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Spot checking a few locations in the Coastal Plain per 18z GFS bufkit data, solution which is indicative of a stronger closer to the coast slp, KPOB (just west of FAY) 15.6" all snow, KRWI (Rocky Mount) 11.9 all snow, KEWN (New Bern), 0.4" snow, 0.97 IP, 1.37 ZR, wow. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/ UGH KEWN That would be beyond nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looking at the 18z GFS, mainly SE NC and central/eastern SC would see some icy conditions. A good initial measure for ice would be 850mb temps are above zero and sfc temp below zero. See the map below. The thick line is the 850mb temp freezing line and the line blue line is the surface freezing line: You can still get snow in above freezing situations depending on dynamic factors, wetbulb temps Thank you for the information, greatly appreciated! Things look to be trending favorably for a majority of us. Hope it gets even better! I just wanted to see how things would "jive" for us. I sure as heck don't want to deal with an ice storm, had a bad experience with that from an ice storm in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcon2 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 All of the ENC local tv stations paint a decent snow event from Carteret County back to New Bern in Craven County. There is a sharp cutoff with little to nothing from Greenville-west. This blows my mind when you read the forums and see the potential amounts that are being discussed here. I guess the tv mets are always going to be very cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Spot checking a few locations in the Coastal Plain per 18z GFS bufkit data, solution which is indicative of a stronger closer to the coast slp, KPOB (just west of FAY) 15.6" all snow, KRWI (Rocky Mount) 11.9 all snow, KEWN (New Bern), 0.4" snow, 0.97 IP, 1.37 ZR, wow. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/ Same site gives KILM 1.71 inches ZR. Hoooooly crap. That would be a worse disaster than a hurricane in my opinion (except for the beaches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Thank you for the information, greatly appreciated! Things look to be trending favorably for a majority of us. Hope it gets even better! I just wanted to see how things would "jive" for us. I sure as heck don't want to deal with an ice storm, had a bad experience with that from an ice storm in the past. 18z gfs gives cae .26 zr, 1.24 ip and 8.3" of snow according to bufkit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 18z gfs gives cae .26 zr, 1.24 ip and 8.3" of snow according to bufkit Thank you Michele! I appreciate that! Hope this works out for us and the rest of the SE crew as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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