Lookout Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 if you look at the RH fields at 700 and 850mb this run vs the 18z, you really can get a feel to how much the flow is gradually backing and becoming more favorable for moisture transport/precip over north ga and the western carolinas. This run now has the back edge right at 85..the furthest to the west/north yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The NAM gave a Montgomery to Columbus to Macon line a nasty mix of freezing rain/sleet/snow before FINALLY switching to all snow. Not sure of the totals, but it didn't look pretty. The soundings I saw had Columbus with an ice/sleet storm for over 18 hours. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 well, not quite 25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 SREF 21z basically says "sleet for you mainly" in KCAE. The new 00z NAM is what you want if you're living in KCAE guys.. colder and precip still looks nice. Not a monster, but don't have to deal with half of it being ice pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 SREF... what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Wow! The SREF is on something, one plume member forecasts 17 inches for Greenville, SC! http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20140126&RT=21&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=GSP&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap I can't believe how much wetter the 21z run is. That is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 If that southern energy was 50 - 100 miles east this would be huge. Still a big step in the right direction. Night and day vs. 18z NAM. Important thing is it continue the west trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Just want to input SST temps into this... EXACTLY WHERE THE 800 0c LINE IS? at the 120/600ft depth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 00z NAM looks a lot like the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm driving into work right now. A little help will be awesome, please. It looks like Columbus to Macon to a Gusta to Columbia, is the big winner with the 0z nam run, is that correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dg12x Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 What a close call it's going to be for Charleston. Verbatim at the airport, it going from rain to ice sometime after 7pm Tuesday when 0.94" QPF falls through 7am. When you look at John's Island to the south, the surface is borderline the whole night through 7am. Our chance seeing some snow flakes come late morning/afternoon on Wednesday, but it will be a sleet/snow battle (per 00z NAM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Certainly not a big dog, but 2-3 inches for RDU an improvement from zilch at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm driving into work right now. A little help will be awesome, please. It looks like Columbus to Macon to a Gusta to Columbia, is the big winner with the 0z nam run, is that correct? KCAE is all snow per 850 line. Pretty much just a row of counties South of that area should be too. It's less of a "hit" snow total wise; but it's all pure. I'll take a look at soundings in few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 well, not quite 25" 8 of 15 are double digit snow totals. Gulp! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm driving into work right now. A little help will be awesome, please. It looks like Columbus to Macon to a Gusta to Columbia, is the big winner with the 0z nam run, is that correct? Sounds about right to me with respect to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD0230Z MON JAN 27 201400Z PRODUCTION IS RUNNING ABOUT 5 MINUTES LATER THAN NORMAL..00Z NAM RAOB RECAP...76692/HYY - 1015871600/YSA - SHORT TO 478MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm driving into work right now. A little help will be awesome, please. It looks like Columbus to Macon to a Gusta to Columbia, is the big winner with the 0z nam run, is that correct? Sure... As long as you like almost a full day of a stout warm nose at 850. We're looking at a sloppy mess according to the 00Z NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yeah those sref plumes are as good as it gets. For RDU. 1 over 20 6 in the 10-15 range 9 in the 5-10 1 around 2 2 around zilch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yeah those sref plumes are as good as it gets. For RDU. 1 over 20 6 in the 10-15 range 9 in the 5-10 1 around 2 2 around zilch Indeed a significant improvement for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 8 of 15 are double digit snow totals. Gulp! There are some differences in terms of ratios (higher to the northeast) but 10 are showing at least 1 inch liquid here. 4 showing 1.75 to 2 inch liquid. Probably far too extreme but man it does sort of give you goose pumps lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm lovin this... The front is expected to come through dry as the column will nothave sufficient time to moisten Monday night. Once the front isoffshore...waves of low pressure are expected to develop along theboundary and then move up along it. ( OK with everyone else; WTH are they talking about???)???? As the Arctic air moves outacross the waters...it will help to increase the baroclinicity ofthe environment... (No doubt the Gulf Steam Effect)..helping to fuel developing low pressure. This willlikely result in more intense and rapid development of these waves.The Arctic air will be shallow...with winds from the north from thesurface to about 3 kft. Above that level...strong winds will remainfrom the west-southwest or SW. This will create a strong overrunning situation. ice/Ice baby..Isentropic lift is expected to maximize Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.However...light wintry precipitation may begin as early as middayTuesday/Tuesday afternoon.Examination of model soundings show it will be cold enough formainly frozen precipitation...especially during the time theheaviest quantitative precipitation forecast is expected. However...there is some concern that apronounced and deep warm nose may allow for a prolonged period of atleast a snow and sleet mix. Sleet would have a dramatic downwardimpact on total accumulations. This makes it very difficult at thisjuncture to ascertain total snow accumulations.(WET SLOP) Where thepredominate precipitation type remains mainly snow...amounts mayreadily exceed 3 inches. At this time...the risk for sleet or mixedprecipitation is greatest across southern and coastal areas. Thiswould suggest higher snowfall accumulations along the Interstate 95corridor. It should be noted...that dynamic cooling may occur as theprecipitation begins to fall heavily Tuesday night...keeping temperaturesthroughout the column below zero and thus increasing the chances fora mainly snow event. A-La 1989..March 3-1980? Or a blend?As the pressure gradient tightens Tuesday night... winds of 20 to 30 miles per hourare expected to develop. These winds will serve to blow and driftthe snow while bringing wind chills down to around 10 degrees. Temperaturesare expected to be well down in the 20s while the heaviestprecipitation is falling. &&Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/...as of 245 PM Sunday...main challenge for the extended will be justhow long the wintry precipitation will hang around for Wednesday.The 1200 UTC GFS shows good Omega in the -15 degree c area at 1200UTC and this due in part to the orientation of a 200mb jet movingacross the area. Have increased probability of precipitation for the day. Thermal profilesas well as the forcing become less conducive for significantsnowfall as the day moves along with BUFKIT showing some breaks inthe saturation of the dendritic growth zone. We could very well seea little light freezing drizzle or sleet mix in with the light snow.As for the remainder of the period...expect a very frosty morningThursday and Friday as there is a good chance of snow cover Thursdayand this possibly lingers into Friday am. The broad pattern changeadvertised by the medium range guidance continues and the weekendshould be warmer with a very slight chance of rain Sunday with aweakly forced west to east system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 How do the models handle the baroclinic zones that can form between the Apps and the Gulf Stream? Dr. Gary Lackmann at NC State talked about this extensivly in MEA 443. The baroclinic coastal fronts had huge ramifications for precip accumulation during Hurricane Floyd and 1/25/2000 acoording to the research. Curious how much the baroclinic front will have on us this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Think they'll be more of a consensus once the gfs and euro come in tonight for making first calls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm loving the temps shown by the SREF, I know it's been touched on mutliple times but the mean at KCLT is below 30 degrees from 03Z til the end of the run and it's still falling well into the teens from 06Z to 12Z 1/30. Talk about a bitter day on Thursday if that comes to fruitation: 3 hr Temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 How accurate is the SREF model when forecasting a couple days out???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Sure... As long as you like almost a full day of a stout warm nose at 850. We're looking at a sloppy mess according to the 00Z NAM... Ya it looks like we get hammered with sleet and ZR then a good 6-12 hr window of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Sry NC state you get those SST Map I put up?, seems the baroclinicity will be right along that...Please correct Me if I'm wrong here,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 if you look at the RH fields at 700 and 850mb this run vs the 18z, you really can get a feel to how much the flow is gradually backing and becoming more favorable for moisture transport/precip over north ga and the western carolinas. This run now has the back edge right at 85..the furthest to the west/north yet. Incredible change on models here, I admit I didn't think they had it in them Am I correct in thinking that the models are now showing simply what could happen if the two systems phase, and if they don't, that they would most likely go back to what was shown earlier today? Only problem with this map is I am a few miles north of 85. This would be an even bigger heartbreak than what was models were showing earlier today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 How accurate is the SREF model when forecasting a couple days out????Most mets and pro forecasters I believe will tell you around 48hrs and then inside from there although I saw today that they got an upgrade recently and have gotten some good verification scores for the northeast systems this year so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 ok, For the new folks in the room remember this does not run for free!! Their is a lot of work to keep this up and running Please do the subscription Drive and DONATE....... This is what keep it up and running year after year!!! DONATE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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