burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 21z SREF is beefing up. Coming in on the model center. Oh it's good for interior parts of NC. This is the trend we wanted to see. Lines up will with the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 SREF 24 hour mean precip through 1pm Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 21z SREF looks like a phase to my untrained eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 SREFs go nuts for you guys, wait till you see them edit: I was late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The SREF CRUSHES US!!!!!!!! HUGE shift!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dntjr Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Ocean does help warm things quite a bit- checked the buoy in front of my house (OCP1, about a 1/2 mi offshore), and the water temp is in the upper 40's. Wind will be coming out of the NE, which may entrain some slightly warmer air in. I looked at wunderground Thursday night, and while it was 9 F at St. James Plantation (across the intercoastal), it was 24 F out on the buoy- they are only 2-2.5 miles apart as the crow flies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Oh it's good for interior parts of NC. This is the trend we wanted to see. Lines up will with the 18z GFS. It sure is burger. As compared to the 15Z SREF, it looks much like the 18 gfs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Sorry was wrong about HKY but still this is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This is pretty insane, 21z SREF 24 hour probability of 12+ inches of snow through 7pm Wednesday! 50-70% for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Not that bad from the lee side to the coast, where it is rocking. Thanks for posting Allan! This is pretty insane, 21z SREF 24 hour probability of 12+ inches of snow through 7pm Wednesday! 50-70% for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 so fayetteville has a 75 percent chance of a foot of snow... geeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 so fayetteville has a 75 percent chance of a foot of snow... geeze. In your area, I am becoming bullish seeing the trends that the baja piece of energy could phase into your system. Even the least frequented posters know a phase means this thing is coming more north and west. I think by game time, RaleighWx and back toward you could really be in business for a significant event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 SREF 24 hour mean precip through 1pm Wednesday Wow Allan... I think we have a verified trend here. This is getting very interesting. Very closely resembles the 18z GFS and GEFS. There must've been some key recon data ingested into the 18z model suites to get this kind of movement within this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Loving the SREF as it gives the Atlanta metro between .5 - .75". These 0z runs of the NAM, GFS, and Euro are quite possibly the most important since the 2010-2011 winter for a lot of us on here. Will the wetter look continue to show up? Looking forward to the play by play!! I'd also like to say a big thank you to all of the dedicated mets and members that have made this thread awesome! Keep the mojo coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 About time for some local NWS to start hoisting winter storm watches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
socar2001 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Can someone please answer this for me. Is the trend moving the low north and west or just expanding the precipitation field? Asking because I know a shift of the low could cause temps to warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Can someone please answer this for me. Is the trend moving the low north and west or just expanding the precipitation field? Asking because I know a shift of the low could cause temps to warm. I believe just an expansion, could be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrhardin Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 For the triangle I'm excited given the recent guidance, but really want to see how the 0z models play out. If they're still bullish for the triangle and especially by 12z tomorrow I'm all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Can someone please answer this for me. Is the trend moving the low north and west or just expanding the precipitation field? Asking because I know a shift of the low could cause temps to warm. Our Baja shortwave is trending stronger and there is at least a partial phase with the polar s/w...that's allowing the precip to expand in coverage but it is also resulting in some warmer mid level to be drawn in... That's going to prove to be a problem for areas of lower South Carolina and Georgia because the surface cold will remain. Ice threat is really increasing for the areas east of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Can someone please answer this for me. Is the trend moving the low north and west or just expanding the precipitation field? Asking because I know a shift of the low could cause temps to warm. If interaction occurs (phasing) the low itself is likely to shift (ala 18Z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This is getting nuts lol wpc's probabilities are starting to look good for wnc wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Where is GaWX to give us historicals for Georgia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This is getting nuts lol wpc's probabilities are starting to look good for wnc wow! I'm not very experienced with model reading yet, but it looks like the 21z SREF has >50% chance of more than 4 inches for much of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 00z NAM already looks further west with that northern energy and a tad slower. Southern energy looks about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm speechless at this point in time. Everything slowly trended further west with the mean upper trough and finally it may have been enough to share the love. Excited and anxious as I was ready to throw in the towel for far north GA...especially MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 00z NAM already looks further west with that northern energy and a tad slower. Southern energy looks about the same. NAM has been leading the way with the southern wave. Getting that polar energy to slow and hold back more is the key here. A delicate dance it's been for the past few days. I think we're finally reeling it in, my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Things are looking better and better for MOST of you guys (and gals) in GA, NC, and SC. Best of luck to you guys on the other side of the mountain! I hope y'all get crushed! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 SREF 24 hour mean precip through 1pm Wednesday are we all just having the same hallucination at the same time? lol the .50" mark is now well into n and ne ga and .75 to the atl/athens corridor. if we are seeing the models finally converge on an at least similar solution, and its something like this the SE will be going bonkers through midweek lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 I will say this. Early on GFS and NAM look very similar at 5h. Out to 15 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm speechless at this point in time. Everything slowly trended further west with the mean upper trough and finally it may have been enough to share the love. Excited and anxious as I was ready to throw in the towel for far north GA...especially MBY. I feel you! I'm cautiously optimistic, but I don't want to get my hopes up too high until the NAM comes on board with the GFS and then we see some consistency between them both! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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