jacobr57

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About jacobr57

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KAVL
  • Gender
    Not Telling
  • Location:
    Asheville,NC
  1. They also mention that it's not necessarily indicative of later conditions.
  2. Yea, coming back down to Earth a bit, but still the biggest event we've had in quite a while. It looks like about 80% of the GEFS members exceed 12 inches for Asheville still.
  3. Looks like it's going to continue for a while too based on radar.
  4. GSP did bump up totals a bit it seems. My location went from 3-5 to 3-7.
  5. Yea, the NAM would be amazing for our area.
  6. Here's the GSP afternoon disco: AT 230 PM...THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AS WELL AS STATISTICAL GUIDANCE STILL SOLIDLY SUPPORTS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA TONIGHT. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF THE SC COAST BY 12Z THU. PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALL SORTS OF DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA TONIGHT. NO NEED TO GO INTO DETAILS ON THAT. THE BIGGEST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT BANDING WILL DEVELOP AND ALSO WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL SET UP. STILL EXPECT THAT DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL BECOME SUFFICENT TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR SNOW PROFILES TO PREDOMINATE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF PRECIP MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WITH THE SNOWFALL TOTALS IS NOW TO SHOW THE MAXIMUM FROM THE EASTERN UPSTATE...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA WHERE 8-10 INCHES IS EXPECTED. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH BRINGS A SWATH OF HIGHER QPF INTO THAT AREA OVERNIGHT. ALSO...MESO MODELS ARE HITTING THAT AREA WITH THE HIGHEST QPF. IT ALSO SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS IN SOME AREAS. THE FFC MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED CONSIDERABLE WARM NOSE BELOW 700 MB SO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS LIKELY TO SET UP FROM SOMEWHERE OVER NORTH GA...EASTWARD THROUGH ELBERT COUNTY GA...ABBEVILLE AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES SC. THUS...SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE COULD BE QUITE VARIABLE FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH. OF COURSE THE BIGGEST WILD CARD WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE SNOW/RAIN LINE ACROSS THE LOWER PIEDMONT COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL END RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z THU. THU SHOLD BE DRY OTHER THAN FOR SOME SCT SW- OVER THE ESCARPMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. USED PRIMARLILY A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR MOST FIELDS TONIGHT TRYING TO CAPTURE THE EXTENT OF DYNAMIC COOLING. ALSO SHADED MAX TEMPS ON THU TOWEARD THE COOLEST RAW GFS NUMBERS IN DEFERENCE TO SNOW...AND THAT MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH.
  7. We'll get much more insight in the full discussion in an hour or so.
  8. What is up with the ARW members of the SREF? Skews the KAVL average up to almost 10 inches. Without it it's 6.6 or so.