CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 How do the models handle the baroclinic zones that can form between the Apps and the Gulf Stream? Dr. Gary Lackmann at NC State talked about this extensivly in MEA 443. The baroclinic coastal fronts had huge ramifications for precip accumulation during Hurricane Floyd and 1/25/2000 acoording to the research. Curious how much the baroclinic front will have on us this week. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ilm/science/ascii/ascintro.html Check out this site... It has an index I use to determine whether or not a storm will bomb off the coast within 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 In this brief moment between runs, how well was this moisture modeled moving across MS, AL and GA by the models just 24 hrs ago? http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The 00z Nam gives cae 10.9" of snow with a touch of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Oh how I wish the NAM would verify for KCAE: StnID: kcae Profile Thermal Adjust: 0.0 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Average Hourly Sounding: NO Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF S%| I%| L% ============================================================================================================================ 140128/2200Z 58 06009KT 29.4F SNPL 4:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.004 4:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.00 35| 65| 0 140128/2300Z 59 05008KT 26.1F SNOW 13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 10:1| 0.2|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0 140129/0000Z 60 04007KT 25.4F SNOW 12:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 11:1| 0.3|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 140129/0100Z 61 04007KT 25.2F SNOW 13:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042 13:1| 0.9|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0 140129/0200Z 62 04007KT 25.2F SNOW 12:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046 12:1| 1.5|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0 140129/0300Z 63 03007KT 25.1F SNOW 13:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 13:1| 2.1|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.17 100| 0| 0 140129/0400Z 64 04008KT 24.7F SNOW 9:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052 12:1| 2.6|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.22 100| 0| 0 140129/0500Z 65 03009KT 24.3F SNOW 10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 12:1| 3.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.26 100| 0| 0 140129/0600Z 66 03009KT 24.0F SNOW 13:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042 12:1| 3.5|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.30 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 140129/0700Z 67 02008KT 23.4F SNOW 15:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 12:1| 4.3|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.36 100| 0| 0 140129/0800Z 68 02008KT 23.1F SNOW 12:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.075 12:1| 5.2|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.43 100| 0| 0 140129/0900Z 69 02009KT 22.7F SNOW 17:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.079 13:1| 6.5|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.51 100| 0| 0 140129/1000Z 70 03010KT 22.4F SNOW 10:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.061 13:1| 7.1|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.57 100| 0| 0 140129/1100Z 71 03010KT 22.0F SNOW 10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043 12:1| 7.6|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.61 100| 0| 0 140129/1200Z 72 03009KT 22.0F SNOW 12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029 12:1| 7.9|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.64 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 140129/1300Z 73 03009KT 22.0F SNOW 12:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 12:1| 8.4|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.68 100| 0| 0 140129/1400Z 74 03008KT 22.2F SNOW 11:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057 12:1| 9.1|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.74 100| 0| 0 140129/1500Z 75 04009KT 22.5F SNOW 16:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.060 13:1| 10.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.80 100| 0| 0 140129/1600Z 76 03008KT 23.1F SNOW 11:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037 12:1| 10.4|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.83 100| 0| 0 140129/1700Z 77 04008KT 23.4F SNOW 14:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023 13:1| 10.7|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.86 100| 0| 0 140129/1800Z 78 05008KT 24.0F SNOW 15:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 13:1| 10.9|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.87 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 140129/1900Z 79 05008KT 25.1F SNOW 10:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 13:1| 10.9|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.87 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 actually made them worse up here but they are fun to look at.. I dont know if they would perform and different in your area Most mets and pro forecasters I believe will tell you around 48hrs and then inside from there although I saw today that they got an upgrade recently and have gotten some good verification scores for the northeast systems this year so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looks like .33" QPF of sleet around here, then .67" QPF of snow....THAT won't be fun on the roads.... so maybe 1.5" of sleet and 6" of snow or so?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 21Z sref mean snowfall Check out @Wright_Weather's Tweet: https://twitter.com/Wright_Weather/status/427642474064920577 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The 21Z SREF was a huge boon to those of us on the western side of the state of NC (together with the 18Z GFS). I thought I'd add Hickory's plumes to the discussion. We have transitioned from a mean of 0.25 inch of snow at 03Z, to 2 inches at 09Z, to 1.5 inches at 15Z, to 6 inches at 21Z. Of course, it's a mean, so there are some large values still skewing the mean quite high with five members over 10 inches of snowfall. On the other side, there are two members still showing zero. Anyway, I think we get something out of this at KHKY (even if it's relatively small), when it's all said and done. Soon, we'll have the 00Z GFS to digest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redteamllc Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 ok, For the new folks in the room remember this does not run for free!! Their is a lot of work to keep this up and running Please do the subscription Drive and DONATE....... This is what keep it up and running year after year!!! DONATE Done. Thanks Americanwx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Well the 00z GFS Baja energy is completely cutoff at 15hrs at 5h, that's new edit: 18hrs it's no longer cutoff...not really any changes so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Hr18 GFS looks about the same as the 18z run so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yeah those sref plumes are as good as it gets. For RDU. 1 over 20 6 in the 10-15 range 9 in the 5-10 1 around 2 2 around zilch And RDU is on the west end of town. The city proper and Eastern burbs could get a tick more than the Airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Well the 00z GFS Baja energy is completely cutoff at 15hrs at 5h, that's new It did that a couple of times during the 18z run. So far through 18hr just a whisker of a difference, splitting hairs really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The NAM gave a Montgomery to Columbus to Macon line a nasty mix of freezing rain/sleet/snow before FINALLY switching to all snow. Not sure of the totals, but it didn't look pretty. The soundings I saw had Columbus with an ice/sleet storm for over 18 hours. :/ Scout out your hills tomorrow, that will be amazing sledding. Big hills down around Sprewell's Bluff, lol. Man, you are getting some of the best Ga can offer. You need to go buy a lotto!! Just as long as the 0z's hold serve. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Did I read correctly that the SREF uses 10:1 ratios in predicting its totals? Or was that just for the Wright Weather mean snowfall map? I'd imagine western GA/SC/NC would have potentially higher ratios through much of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 00z GFS says 18z was too good to be true. Probably gonna be a mix between 00z NAM and 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 @27 maybe a tad weaker with the northern stream energy and a tad east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 00z GFS says 18z was too good to be true. Probably gonna be a mix between 00z NAM and 18z GFS Probably.. the southern wave is a bit more SW at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Scout out your hills tomorrow, that will be amazing sledding. Big hills down around Sprewell's Bluff, lol. Man, you are getting some of the best Ga can offer. You need to go buy a lotto!! Just as long as the 0z's hold serve. T Ha! I'll have to find the hills, but only because I'm going to be working (after I was supposed to have the week off...). That's actually not a bad idea... Find where the good hills are so I can have some good live shots! ... If they let me... LOL! I want to go out and enjoy this snow. Unlike the ice storm back in 2011 when I had to work the whole event inside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 already tell through 30 hours it's going to be a miss from 18z, souther energy getting left behind, oh well, looks like we got 18z'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Probably.. the southern wave is a bit more SW at 30 Yeah and the northern stream is a hair east...not gonna do it, it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 A little stronger southern shortwave and a bit west of 18z run... northern piece is about the same HR36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 already tell through 30 hours it's going to be a miss from 18z, souther energy getting left behind, oh well, looks like we got 18z'd Not necessarily. We still have GEFS which can and often does vary significantly from the OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Compared to 0z NAM, GFS still has southern energy west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 HR 42, the southern wave is slower to kick, but stronger...However QPF still looks about the same, maybe a bit heavier along gulf coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Hmmm it's actually wetter on the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 What is that area of energy to the east of the closed vort over baja at 39? Can that help at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 How do the models handle the baroclinic zones that can form between the Apps and the Gulf Stream? Dr. Gary Lackmann at NC State talked about this extensivly in MEA 443. The baroclinic coastal fronts had huge ramifications for precip accumulation during Hurricane Floyd and 1/25/2000 acoording to the research. Curious how much the baroclinic front will have on us this week. TCs interacting with baroclinic zones are a totally different animal. In these types of cases (i.e. extratropical cyclogenesis along a strong coastal baroclinic zone) the convective parameterization (CP scheme) a model uses can have a significant impact on the model solution. Mahoney and Lackmann (2006) studied the February 2004 event and found that the BMJ CP scheme (used by the old ETA/current NAM) generated a weaker coastal cyclone than actually occurred. You can tell when the BMJ is up to no good when you see spurious cyclonic circulations develop along the coastal baroclinic zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That LP is still closer to the coast which is throwing more moisture further inland. EDIT: The sfc map looks real good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 HR48, big moisture surge inland...there is more inland QPF vs 18z run at this time frame... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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